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Another visionary CEO who is working with Audi on autonomous driving:
Nvidia’s Huang Says Parnership with Audi to Bring ‘Level 4 Autonomy’ by 2020
Nvidia’s Huang Says Parnership with Audi to Bring ‘Level 4 Autonomy’ by 2020
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Switching Osaka to 2170 production can definitely help by making it possible to build packs that have about .077 percent greater capacity. The question is cost of cell/packs. If Panasonic uses the same cell manufacturing equipment that they developed for the Gigafactory their cell costs will be similar in cost to cells produced at the Gigafactory. In the long run the best strategy might be to use those cells to produce packs for TE and cars produced and sold in Asia.
You did some excellent analysis and of why we missed on our delivery estimates. Maybe it won't matter very much going forward. Two possible reasons for the SP increase after the small delivery miss:
Income is more important than the number of cars produced, as long as Tesla is producing a substantial number of MS-MX. The market figured out that the small miss wouldn't have a big impact on the earnings.
Gigafactory production equals TE income. For years we've W noticed that TE was not priced into Tesla's SP. But that was future income which has now become either current income or imminent income. It's not that analysis couldn't see this coming. It's that many of their clients want to see immediate gains when they invest.
If the 30% increase is being derived from the capacity of the cells and is being used to estimate pack capacity it is absolutely incorrect. There are two ways that the size of the cells have greater capacity. Increased diameter and increased length. Only the increased length leads to a substantial increase in capacity.
The increase in diameter is exactly offset by a corresponding decrease in the number of cells. I'm tired of proving that mathematically, which I've done at least threes times in the ST threads, including to Julian.
If you want to do that yourself you need to use the correct formula. The numbers you are using are as incorrect as the statement that the pack capacity will increase by 30 percent because the cells have 30 percent larger capacity. The volume of a cylinder is pi x R squared which for the 2170's is pi x 10.5 squared.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think that the grove is used to either crimp the cap on (a surface to press the cap against prior to welding it on, or it might be used only to locate the cap prior to welding.
Using timer to measure speed of the machine that advances in steps one cell at a time, I am getting 2 cells per second. For a 7/24 operation, this is equivalent to 365 x 24 x 3600 x 2 = 63 million cells per year.
Further assuming that capacity of 90kWh pack cell is 12.514Wh (88,900 / 7104 = 12.514), that new chemistry in the 2170 cells cancels out reduction of the capacity in TE vs. TA cells, and that capacity of 2170 cell is approximately 49.3% higher than in 18650 cell, 63 million cells per year are equivalent to 1.177 GWh/year per the machine: 63 x 12.514 x 1.493 = 1.177
Paging @Yggdrasill to check napkin math/assumptions above.
Paging @AudubonB to verify how many machines per line and how many lines are currently in operation, how many lines are planned for a completed Phase I (ostensibly being ramped up throught this year), Phase II (building sections currently under construction)
Hopefully we can come up with the estimate of the GWh output of each Phase.
Well, Germans seem to have lost enough to start caring. This is function of luxury market they serve, market that Tesla adopted as a first playground. Wait for truck to be released, and let's see what Ford says few years after
Luxury market has the highest margins, Germans must defend it at all costs.
Tesla is taking serious market share there, and their moat is increasing
Further.
(mkt cap over 5 yrs)
TSLA is now trading at ATH.
T3slaTulips
Member
Not sure why, but that question reminded me of blank vinyl B-sides that were labelled with "This is a silent groove to improve the molding of your pressing"...
Sure, but don't forget it includes SCTY now.
Any thoughts on TSLA getting added to the S&P 500 this year? Their Market Cap is higher than many companies in the index.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Adam Jonas provides an update on Gigafactory press event, still remains very skeptical on a Model 3 launch in 2017:
Model 3 milestones should dominate 2017. We currently expect a later launch than consensus, but we also expect a better car. Elon Musk was asked to provide any update on the Model 3 ramp and timing. According to Mr. Musk, they feel ‘pretty good’ about the pace of progress at the gigafactory which manufactures the Model 3 battery pack, electric motor, drivetrain and power electronics. He did highlight the riskiest components as some of the long lead items such as stamping dies for the body panels and the seats. Mr. Musk didn’t want to comment much more on Model 3 saying “let's keep our Model 3 powder dry on announcements,” alluding to a fair number of surprises and developments in the capabilities of the car that they will update the market on in due time. In our opinion, we believe Elon Musk is referring to step function improvements in autonomy, further unveiling of additional body styles and new business models for transportation both within and between cities in an expansion of their mobility network infrastructure.
Adam leaves his price target unchanged at $242 and industry weighting as "cautious", siting his usual warning of big risk a big capital needs ahead. The note also restates his earlier thoughs on surprising alignment between Tesla and the incoming Trump administration in terms of keeping manufacturing jobs in America.
Model 3 milestones should dominate 2017. We currently expect a later launch than consensus, but we also expect a better car. Elon Musk was asked to provide any update on the Model 3 ramp and timing. According to Mr. Musk, they feel ‘pretty good’ about the pace of progress at the gigafactory which manufactures the Model 3 battery pack, electric motor, drivetrain and power electronics. He did highlight the riskiest components as some of the long lead items such as stamping dies for the body panels and the seats. Mr. Musk didn’t want to comment much more on Model 3 saying “let's keep our Model 3 powder dry on announcements,” alluding to a fair number of surprises and developments in the capabilities of the car that they will update the market on in due time. In our opinion, we believe Elon Musk is referring to step function improvements in autonomy, further unveiling of additional body styles and new business models for transportation both within and between cities in an expansion of their mobility network infrastructure.
Adam leaves his price target unchanged at $242 and industry weighting as "cautious", siting his usual warning of big risk a big capital needs ahead. The note also restates his earlier thoughs on surprising alignment between Tesla and the incoming Trump administration in terms of keeping manufacturing jobs in America.
This article is so poorly written and uses the following techniques: drive by character character assasination, damning with faint praise, quoting long-term sceptic (Brian Johnson) as if he was an expert, misreporting that "much of the investment in the Gigafactory has been paid for by transferable tax credits to MGM....", and so much more just drivel. Really, garden variety hit piece....but within it, an interesting moment of clarity:
"Tesla sorely needs the Gigafactory to be a success. The company has set a goal of 500,000 Model 3 vehicles to be sold by 2018. There simply aren't enough lithium-ion car batteries to be supplied by anyone else. And with the car's relatively low price tag of $35,000, current market prices for supplied batteries would keep the car from turning Tesla a profit.
The only alternative that Tesla had was to make its own batteries."
Interesting that this accidental moment of clarity can't be extrapolated to the absurdity of anyone "competing" with Tesla without a battery factory. As El Presidente (elect) would say....Sad.
Tesla has amazing new battery factory, but it's the same old risky stock
"Tesla sorely needs the Gigafactory to be a success. The company has set a goal of 500,000 Model 3 vehicles to be sold by 2018. There simply aren't enough lithium-ion car batteries to be supplied by anyone else. And with the car's relatively low price tag of $35,000, current market prices for supplied batteries would keep the car from turning Tesla a profit.
The only alternative that Tesla had was to make its own batteries."
Interesting that this accidental moment of clarity can't be extrapolated to the absurdity of anyone "competing" with Tesla without a battery factory. As El Presidente (elect) would say....Sad.
Tesla has amazing new battery factory, but it's the same old risky stock
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Anecdotal about that price target - I see "professional traders" on Twitter (take it for what it's worth) saying they are not in $TSLA at the moment but will be if it breaks out above $240...
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
This is why us legacy longs must hold and not sell into a minor dip. We are almost there.......no systemic risk out there folks. So what if the overall market has a 5% pullback. Been there done that.
I just want to note... the production levels are pretty much on track, the shortfall was on delivery logistics. Which means it didn't affect suppliers at all, as these short term delivery logistics gets all smoothed out across quarters. Certainly, an ongoing volume adjustment is a problem. And it is possible and maybe even likely that suppliers aren't taking Tesla's Model 3 volumes seriously. Thankfully, the market seems to have brought Model 3 production expectations down to very low levels, so the realism of hitting something in between is still favorable for the stock.
(rough numbers in for Tesla... precision here isn't the point)
This is why I will most likely not change my general short position on TSLA in the near future. When will Tesla Auto ever substantially contribute to the $100B to $1T market cap claims by longs or even the $36B it currently holds? TSLA is currently priced at levels that the company doesn't even have medium term goals for... 1m/yr M3 by 2020 is the last stated goal which doesn't even justify the current position in the list above.
I understand CAGR... but when I look at this... and consider risk of execution combined with how many years out this stock is priced... and in those years the competition will only increase... I just don't get it... Unless everyone expects Tesla to just drop auto and just become Tesla Energy... go ahead and rail me... what am I missing here?
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Keep the pressure on Chanos and Spiegel. They must be annoyed!
good point... but before Tesla announced a buyout it was priced around $2b and rapidly falling.
From the Tesla PR release yesterday:
(emphasis mine)
"By 2018"... not "in 2018" which means they expect the second phase to be online and fully or near fully operational at the start of 2018? Hmmm....
(emphasis mine)
"By 2018"... not "in 2018" which means they expect the second phase to be online and fully or near fully operational at the start of 2018? Hmmm....
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But if your original point was to count the highest peak of peaks, then there is still quite a ways to go. And the underlying reality on the ground has changed significantly with the start of Gigafactory production.
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