CALGARYARSENAL
Member
You cannot value Tesla by traditional metrics. It will surpass Ford real soon as it should.
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dc_h
Active Member
TSLA should be valued by traditional method: present value of future earnings. That is an opaque endeavor, hence debate and discussion.
WHAT?!?!
Ford expands investment in electric and autonomous vehicle production | ZDNet
How GM Beat Tesla to the First True Mass-Market Electric Car
VW plans huge investment to become electric cars leader - BBC News
Renault-Nissan's electric vehicle investments already exceed $5.6 billion
Why BMW and Nissan are Building Electric-Car Recharging Stations in the U.S. -- The Motley Fool
BMW to challenge Tesla with more electric cars
BMW will make an electric Mini and an electric X3 SUV after all
do we live in different worlds?... seriously... which set of "alternative facts" are you referencing?
Tesla has one factory they are going to attempt to scale to 500k/yr... look at this list!!!:
List of Ford factories - Wikipedia
List of General Motors factories - Wikipedia
EM reaching many of the stock option goals. Fred L writes an article asking: ;Will he leave as CEO and become Chairman of the Board?
Tesla’s market cap reaches last milestone of Elon Musk’s $1 billion CEO stock option plan – will he stay CEO for long?
Tesla’s market cap reaches last milestone of Elon Musk’s $1 billion CEO stock option plan – will he stay CEO for long?
As far as valuations go, why don't you crunch the numbers for the benefit of this Forum (since you are apparently extolling members of this Forum to invest in Ford) and show how much money Ford has to invest to switch to EVs by 2030. Last I heard they allocated $4.5B for their timid program of producing hybrids and ONE pure EV - Ford Focus Electric by 2020. These 4.5B will mostly go in obsolete technology (hybrids). May be you can use this $4.5B as a starting point. Go ahead and factor this in your valuation model for Ford and report back to the Forum.
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Ford expands investment in electric and autonomous vehicle production | ZDNet
"In terms of "electrified" vehicles, Ford revealed seven of the 13 planned EVs it intends to release in the next five years, including hybrid versions of the F-150 pickup and Mustang in the U.S., a plug-in hybrid Transit Custom van in Europe and a fully electric SUV with an expected range of at least 300 miles for customers globally."
and one more thing... now that T has halted "moving" jobs outside of the US... how is Tesla going to expand factories?... no factory in China for 4 years.
I think the transition will mean people will hold onto their ICE cars for longer, delaying their replacement cycles due to a lack of EVs to buy. If Tesla is able to ship autonomous long range BEVs by 2019, how many would choose a non-autonomous ICE vehicle? Sure, there will still be movement in used cars, but will the major automakers ramp down making new ICE vehicles in time to avoid large amounts of stranded assets? As it stands right now, we can project the amount of EVs made in 2019 due to the battery production capacity and hazard a guess at 2020. Imagine the desert of 2-3 years from 2019 to 2022 if an automaker hasn't already shipped an autonomous long distance capable BEV line-up by 2019. PHEVs will not save them. Count the actual investments relative to their overall size. How much of a shortfall in new vehicle sales can they withstand? If there is any macro shock, can they survive both?
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at this point Tesla only has plans to provide an "affordable" EV for the upper end of the consumer market. There was discussions of margins on a $35k M3 where others on the board suggested they'd be sub 10%... the price point Tesla will be targeting is probably around $45k.
to answer your question: "If Tesla is able to ship autonomous long range BEVs by 2019, how many would choose a non-autonomous ICE vehicle?"
my answer is... those that can afford it... which will probably not be that many relative to the entire auto market... and then many of those still won't.
DurandalAI
Member
The POTUS is concerned about the importation of goods that were produced internally prior. If goods are produced externally that are going to be consumed externally, there will be little to howl about. The members here are not going to be easily swayed by statements of misdirection such as this.
jesselivenomore
Member
What makes you think that 88% of Ford's market cap is the magic number for when valuation is suddenly important?
Of course valuation was always important, just not these comparisons. A hint for your short thesis - if the market was comparing Tesla to other automakers it never would have gotten this high. If the market hasn't been comparing Tesla to other automakers, it probably won't start now. The question you should be asking is - why isn't it?
So going back to Ford, what is their total for the expanded "electrification" program now? $9B ror bunch of hybrids and now TWO pure EVs? So most of these monies would be wasted. Should it be factored in their valuation before comparing it to Tesla? Want to take a shot at this?
"What makes you think that 88% of Ford's market cap is the magic number for when valuation is suddenly important?"
all of the other auto manufacturers trade between 0.2 and 1 P/S where the average is around 0.6... Tesla (Auto) trades at 6.4 P/S and will eventually fall back into this zone... if it traded within that range today then the SP would be about $28... but they'll need to go 10x before they even start to compare with the rest of the entire auto industry in terms of valuation.
"if the market was comparing Tesla to other automakers it never would have gotten this high."
so the reason why the high share price is justified is because it's high?
"The question you should be asking is - why isn't it?"
that should be a question we should all be asking.
we're about at the peak I expected back in December... I mentioned back then $280... I think it's close enough.
EM on the interaction of AI and the human brain AND the disruption of those employed as drivers:
Elon Musk: Humans must merge with machines or become irrelevant in AI age
Elon Musk: Humans must merge with machines or become irrelevant in AI age
in the article they actually stated 7 of the 13 vehicles had been announced. regardless... the reason why I posted this was in response to "they are doing nothing... get your facts straight"... the other auto manufacturers are not sitting on their hands... they already have scaled infrastructure... they do not have to raise capital off stock dilution one or twice a year to fund their R&D... because they already are massive auto manufacturers... 6.6 million cars to Tesla's 80k.
jesselivenomore
Member
Have you ever asked yourself why that is? Are there sector specific conditions that make this so? And do these conditions apply to Tesla?
No. I already know the answers to these questions, that is why I am long. You do not, which is why things don't make sense to you.
Then you know what to do.
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Ford with their billions and factories and unlimited money were the only ones to produce a DIY enthusiast garage made type hybrids/EVs with batteries occupying most of the trunk space. Let's take a Ford Focus take out the engine and put some batteries in the trunk. Not even in the hole left behind by the engine. Regardless of how much money they have spent, I have zero faith in Ford doing anything tangible or worthwhile in that space in the near future.
Shorts coming unhinged is often an indicator that a minor pullback may be in order.
RT
Ladies and gentleman, who is for all time high today?
sundaymorning
Active Member
Tesla producing 80,000 MS at 30% margins is equivalent to Ford producing 600,000 vehicles at 10% margin.
To be honest I struggled with these questions myself.
jesselivenomore, I will really appreciate if you actually spelled out the answers.
However, this is my understanding. There are two distinct components to this puzzle.
1) Why are other auto companies valued so low?
This is certainly NOT because of Tesla or the advent of EVs. The low valuations have existed all along. Tesla and thus prospects of EVs came on to the scene only in early 2013. For instance GM's PE ration in 2012 was 7. So guys please don't waste anybody's time arguing lack of EV commitment is the reason for low valuation.
From the little that I understand the reason is Pension obligations and maybe other worker obligations like medical care. From what I heard these obligations are in the tune of 100billions at GM and about %0 billion at Ford... Is this the only reason? Is there more to it?
2) Why Tesla deserves the kind of valuation that it does.
Well, for the first part, Tesla is free from whatever is plaguing GM, Ford etc from their valuations... Even setting the entire auto industry aside, just merely looking at S&P 500 valuation, Tesla's valuation is very high.
My understanding is that Tesla's valuation is based on DCF of the future with a lot of assumptions about the future. So nobody is ever right or wrong... Is that right? Are there models (or reasons) that are not so feeble that kind of sets the valuation much more firmly in ground?
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