JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I guess I don't see the connection between legacy ICE OEM's and what Tesla Inc. is doing.
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I guess I don't see the connection between legacy ICE OEM's and what Tesla Inc. is doing.
jesselivenomore
Member
The only thing that matters for valuation is growth and profitability/margin(or perceived steady state profitability). It doesn't matter what widget you make or service you provide, or industry you are in, those are the two primary variables.
Growth: Auto industry is 100 years old and completely saturated. Industry growth is slow, difficult for companies to gain share because there is little product differentiation besides branding, which is why products are so heavily advertised.
Profitability: At single digits, net income is low. This does not fully explain the super low PS ratio. The key is perceived future profitability.
1. Increasingly strict mileage standards puts a strain on future profitability. This is getting to a critical state as some turn to cheating(VW, Mitsubishi)
2. Not just pension obligations, but unfunded pension gaps of $20B for GM and F, each. I believe GM got docked $1B in earnings last year for it. The question is how do they solve this? As pension obligations increase faster than earnings growth(which is further constrained by industry growth and mileage standards), this funding gap continues to widen, and put larger and larger pressure on future earnings.
So you have these companies with low growth, and low profitability to begin with, and profitability will be increasingly constrained in the future. Some of these companies may become insolvent.
Not every automaker has these issues. Ferrari trades at 3x sales while growing at only 8% yoy.(because of earnings expansion)
Tesla has none of these issues. Might as well compare them with popsicle makers.
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SebastianR
Active Member
Are we now $100 above the Mark BS bottom? I would totally love that 
And I would totally love to see his fund performance report. Either he is a hypocrite and doesn't short TSLA when he said he would. Or it would cost him dearly...
And I would totally love to see his fund performance report. Either he is a hypocrite and doesn't short TSLA when he said he would. Or it would cost him dearly...
mmd
Active Member
Wow, a $10 pop on UAE entry? I was thiking more like $5 pop. Trying to understand, how many Teslas will be sold in UAE. If anyone has a link to UAE luxury car sales data, please post. TIA.
2virgule5
Member
Seems that we have confirmation from EM himself that upgrade of the Drive PX 2 may be needed to get to level 4-5.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says ‘almost all new cars will be self-driving within 10 years’
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I see some connection, but the important part of the discussion may be to distinguish Tesla from the legacy ICE OEMs.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that Elon was on record saying that he will step down as CEO after the successful ramp of Model 3. IIRC he said this 3-4 years ago. Has his position changed since?
callmesam
Member
Elon said he would not step down before ramp of Model 3. Not that he would step down. And his most recent statement was he had no plans to step down.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The TMC user MMASSASSIN is having trouble posting again and need a Mod's help. If anyone is interested while he waits for help you can follow him on twitter for his current thoughts on TSLA.
stock options picks (@MMASSASSIN) | Twitter
stock options picks (@MMASSASSIN) | Twitter
Not sure it's relevant but since I've been asked this at least twice before : out of TSLA again. I am happy with the gains I got and not comfortable anymore with the price that is being asked for a share. So there is no better time for me to sell and that's what I did. Good luck to all of you. See you after the earnings release. If there are no negative surprises, I'll be buying again. Maybe at a premium, maybe at a lower price.
A lot of people are doing a lot of trading in and out. That's cool - these 2 threads are short term trading threads.
With that said, I want to link this video with Sam Altman (head of Y-combinator.. very smart guy, co-founder of Open-AI and close friend of Elon.)
The entire video is a great watch, but start at 15:56 for the relevant part to this post.
With that said, I want to link this video with Sam Altman (head of Y-combinator.. very smart guy, co-founder of Open-AI and close friend of Elon.)
The entire video is a great watch, but start at 15:56 for the relevant part to this post.
Huh. So >$200mm in TSLA+SCTY as of end 2015. That's even more than I bought for Christmas. A LOT less than Fidelity or Baillie Gifford or BMO, though.
And FYI for English-onlys: that "0.63%" refers to the fund's holding relative to the company's market cap, not relative to the total size of the fund.
There exists another page that shows the portfolio in non-graphical terms that is, I recall, more up-to-date. I'll look...
And FYI for English-onlys: that "0.63%" refers to the fund's holding relative to the company's market cap, not relative to the total size of the fund.
There exists another page that shows the portfolio in non-graphical terms that is, I recall, more up-to-date. I'll look...
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sundaymorning
Active Member
In 2013 TSLA shot up after Elon's tweet regarding cash flow, this immediately caused mini spurts of $2-5 gains per day. As the stock increased, more and more shorts piled in, causing the stock to increase even further as "earlier" shorts were forced out. This trend occurred for months, and although I was long, I must confess that during that time I was a bit nervous at the prospect of us falling back to reality. Hence, I totally understood why some longs were shaken to exit their positions.
However, that was 2013, when Tesla was a "small" company.. well, it's been four years and we've made quite a bit of progress. The difference in my personal "sentiment" now is that I'm not one tad bit worried about a pullback. Tesla is in a very good position and quite frankly, I'm much more worried about missing the train. The reason for this is that way more people and investors are aware about Tesla's potential today than in 2013, this fact is backed by the faith of 400,000 people who deposited money for M3. My bet is that this stock is gapping up further and has some steam left after ER. If you're worried about the "miss" Tesla has gapped up numerous of times after "misses" in 2013.
However, that was 2013, when Tesla was a "small" company.. well, it's been four years and we've made quite a bit of progress. The difference in my personal "sentiment" now is that I'm not one tad bit worried about a pullback. Tesla is in a very good position and quite frankly, I'm much more worried about missing the train. The reason for this is that way more people and investors are aware about Tesla's potential today than in 2013, this fact is backed by the faith of 400,000 people who deposited money for M3. My bet is that this stock is gapping up further and has some steam left after ER. If you're worried about the "miss" Tesla has gapped up numerous of times after "misses" in 2013.
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mmd
Active Member
All the middle east countries are going through a tough time right now. They are dipping into their sovereign funds to bridge the budget gaps. Solar is also not really a new idea there. Irrational exuberance here?
BTW, found this 2016 data (only percentages for free). UAE new car sales overall down 23% to 319.878 registrations.
Luxury car sales holding steady though.
United Arab Emirates Full Year 2016: Land Cruiser takes control
Without any EV incentives, I'm not sure how many Teslas will be sold there. Since Tesla only opened a pop up store, I'd guess not a whole bunch after the initial rush is over.
Those who've been looking at F & TSLA: at Ford's current valuation - $49.36bn - Tesla will equal that when it reaches $306.88 give or take a few pennies.
Another metric: This morning's market cap rise has been $1.8bn. Thank you, Shortsville.
Another metric: This morning's market cap rise has been $1.8bn. Thank you, Shortsville.
Another metric is short losses today: 34M shares x 10.5 USD = 357,000,000 dollars.
And losses since the Spiegel Bottom: 34M shares x 99 USD = 3,366,000,000 dollars.
And losses since the Spiegel Bottom: 34M shares x 99 USD = 3,366,000,000 dollars.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The shorts are paying for a Potemkin village.
They are going to get another Gigafactory.
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