2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

so what does matter?... x/s delivery numbers don't matter... revenue misses don't matter... 2017 expected production of M3 doesn't matter... if they produce less than 20k M3 in 2017 and 100k in 2018... does that matter?... you'll probably call me a troll for suggesting 100k M3 in 2018... right?... just like I was called a troll for saying 20k or less in 2017 last year at this time...

so what matters?... if it's 100k M3... no profits... flat/declining MX/MS sales... will it matter?

Here is a bit of advice for you, get out now while you can. Over the next 12 months I expect MS/MX sales to double. One simple reason. Expiring Fed Tax credits in 2H2018. Tesla is going to make and delivery as many of those vehicles as can be built. At least 125,000 over the next 4 quarters and more if they can build more. After which, they will announce a new HUD/AR, interior refresh and 2170 pack, and of course free supercharging for life.

 

[JBRR]

Delivery numbers won't matter, it's going to pop. The train is leaving very soon. Say your goodbyes.

 

[vgrinshpun]

View attachment 233490
Master betrayed us. Wicked. Tricksy, False. We ought to wring his filthy little neck. Kill him! Kill him! Kill them both! And then we take the precious... and we be the master!

Replying to @jhm to get a proper visual to accompany certain posts here...

 

[JRP3]

Model 3 will be ramping up at an exponential growth rate ...

Change that to "could be". A projection is not a guarantee, especially with Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

I was too optimistic for 3Q17 and slightly optimistic for 4Q17. I underestimated the time it takes to take delivery of parts ordered, assemble them into cars, and deliver to customers.

Indeed. I hope you'll take that into consideration with your predictions going forwards.

 

[elasalle]

Personally, I think Tesla will release the delivery number at about 9:45 or 10am ET. This is when the stock will be in the midst of its biggest pop from the M3 news and best positioned to withstand bad news about the deliveries.

OR - Musk could be doing this whole thing just to make it appear the deliveries are bad (because it looks quite obvious they will be), and then get another surge in the stock price from the deliveries numbers. Had they announced good delivery numbers over the weekend or before market open this morning, then the deliveries news wouldn't have added much to the M3 news (in terms of stock price). But, if we're ALL expecting bad deliveries, then a good number will shock us all and seen even more as a positive (than a weekend announcement would have).

So, I guess either way, we will get the delivery news between 9:45 and 10am ET.

Along with 25051 deliveries there were like 4650 vehicles in transit right? And target for 2Q was 47-50.
Looks very achievable unless there were demand side issues. During this time I think many new markets opened up like Korea, NZ, Jordan, Gulf and Spain ..

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Indeed. I hope you'll take that into consideration with your predictions going forwards.

Have you read the rest of my post or will you just cut and past the one sentence and respond to that?

The 100% m/m exponential growth rate Elon has guided is significantly more than what I had projected for 4Q17, which bodes well for my 2018 projections, which is really what matters to the future of Model 3 and the stock price.

OTOH, @jbcarioca just mentioned a possible consideration, so I'm waiting to read his thoughts on how that specifically affects 2018 unit ramp.

 

[JRP3]

Over the next 12 months I expect MS/MX sales to double. One simple reason. Expiring Fed Tax credits in 2H2018.

Seems unlikely/impossible that the US only tax credit will double MS/MX sales.

 

[Reciprocity]

Seems unlikely/impossible that the US only tax credit will double MS/MX sales.

They will sell cars outside the US as well.. haha. My point is that model 3s swarming everywhere will drive demand and the tax credit phase out will set the sense of urgency around the purchase. The question is if they can produce 2x as many, I dont think they will have any problem selling them, US, China the moon, wherever.

 

[JRP3]

Have you read the rest of my post or will you just cut and past the one sentence and respond to that?

The 100% m/m exponential growth rate Elon has guided is significantly more than what I had projected for 4Q17, which bodes well for my 2018 projections, which is really what matters to the future of Model 3 and the stock price.

OTOH, @jbcarioca just mentioned a possible consideration, so I'm waiting to read his thoughts on how that specifically affects 2018 unit ramp.

Guidance does not always = reality, especially with Tesla.

 

[22522]

Car of the Year type awards matter. The X was too late for 2016 consideration; the M3 appears to be in production in sufficient time for evaluation.

Also, it looks like they will deliver the 200,000 th credit eligible vehicle in early 1Q18 rather than late 4Q17.

What happens if sales divert to international to push the tax credit crossover date to early 2Q18?

The three scenarios are:

1. Pretend the incentive is not a factor.
2. Push fully incentivized product for the US into quarters 1 and 2.
3. Push fully incentivized product for the US into quarters 2 and 3.

I think Tesla may come out with more money and a better net promoter score with option 3.

 

[winfield100]

Part of my investment research involves looking at the logic of the people on the opposite side of my bets.
The worse the logic of the smartest person on the other side, the better I like my bets.
I have yet to find a person on the other side that seemed really smart so I read the SA articles as a proxy of what goes through the head of the people taking my bets.
This gem is from last year: Tesla's Model 3 Mess Has Become Much Messier - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
"

there is a user on SA, Zelaza, who also monitors/reads/is a user of TMC
Zelaza responded within minutes to my comment at the SA link, then Montana responded a few minutes later. It's almost like theres a group of avatars, and a smaller group of ?humans? monitoring TMC and posting on SA
Montana was curteous in his reply to be fair and an excellent contrary indicator 'lump'ed like mm'u'd with MarkBS whether he desires or not

 

[sundaymorning]

Overall market looks solid, both Dow and Naz up.

 

[MXWing]

Got in cheaper than expected on 400 and 600 J19s.

Managed risk at entry, and poised to capture all the upsides. Optimistic!

 

[Italia81]

I updated the unit projection for 2H17 and kept margin projection the same.

I was too optimistic for 3Q17 and slightly optimistic for 4Q17. I underestimated the time it takes to take delivery of parts ordered, assemble them into cars, and deliver to customers.

Having said that, however, the +100% month-over-month exponential growth rate throughout 4Q17 gives me more confidence for my 2018 projections, which is really what matters to the future of Model 3, and hence, the stock price.

The following table presents my Model 3 expectation for the next six quarters. Note that I have my EAD/FSD option uptake projection in a separate section, hence the Model 3 ASP assumption of $40k.

View attachment 233867

Ok, and a key part of your analysis in June was no more need for equity raises. He raised some debt but let's see what happens there. We are getting to a point where analysis can be checked and held accountable and key data comes in...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Ok, and a key part of your analysis in June was no more need for equity raises. He raised some debt but let's see what happens there. We are getting to a point where analysis can be checked and held accountable and key data comes in...

I continue to project no need for equity secondaries. The cash on hand + non-dilutive debt + Model S/X cash flows + Model 3 final orders + new Model 3 deposits should be enough for Gigafactory 1 buildout, Model 3 ramp up and Semi in 2H18.

I wouldn't call this a "key part of [my] analysis." Whether Tesla raises $1-2B equity in 2018 (~2-3% dilution to existing shareholders) vs. none doesn't make much difference to my projection of multiple times of SP return in the coming years.

Do you have any specific analysis/projections you would like to share?

 

[MitchJi]

there is a user on SA, Zelaza, who also monitors/reads/is a user of TMC
Zelaza responded within minutes to my comment at the SA link, then Montana responded a few minutes later. It's almost like theres a group of avatars, and a smaller group of ?humans? monitoring TMC and posting on SA
Montana was curteous in his reply to be fair and an excellent contrary indicator 'lump'ed like mm'u'd with MarkBS whether he desires or not

Please stop!

How is that relevant?

 

[Willuknight]

Anyone here borrowing money to buy shares? I currently have $30k of my own money in tsla. I have a fee free offset mortgage on my paid off house. It would cost me $1200 in interest to borrow 30k and buy tsla. Worst case scenario, tsla drops by half, I can still sell everything and pay my loan back.

So far I'm up 35% on my initial investment. I'm very very certain that I'll make enough to pay for the interest, as I see tsla only going upwards from the model 3 launch.

Worst worst case, I'm adding a year to pay my mortgage back. Seems pretty low risk.

 

[supratachophobia]

They will sell cars outside the US as well.. haha. My point is that model 3s swarming everywhere will drive demand and the tax credit phase out will set the sense of urgency around the purchase. The question is if they can produce 2x as many, I dont think they will have any problem selling them, US, China the moon, wherever.

Don't forget the remaining 19 states where they have buying restrictions. You can pretty much guarantee the public outcry of not being able to buy this car will motivate masses of people to petition their local reps. That's basically a 1/3 of the US market yet untapped.

 

[DurandalAI]

Anyone here borrowing money to buy shares? I currently have $30k of my own money in tsla. I have a fee free offset mortgage on my paid off house. It would cost me $1200 in interest to borrow 30k and buy tsla. Worst case scenario, tsla drops by half, I can still sell everything and pay my loan back.

So far I'm up 35% on my initial investment. I'm very very certain that I'll make enough to pay for the interest, as I see tsla only going upwards from the model 3 launch.

Worst worst case, I'm adding a year to pay my mortgage back. Seems pretty low risk.

Lol. I'm using a combination of tax refund, payday pebble purchases, and student loans. The return on the bulk of my purchases is 72%, but some recent purchases have brought down my average. Next year my income will likely be too high for me to take advantage of student aid any longer, so no more using 4% student loans to progress Tesla and humanity! LOL. For those who might "worry" for me, I have stop loss orders in place that upon execution would still place me roughly 50% ahead of my initial investment. We would have to have some serious calamity for my stop loss to execute, I think.