2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[oneday]

I joined TMC 11/29/2014. I think I might be able to change my handle soon!!

To keep it relevant to the investors section, I always envisioned selling some Tesla shares to pay for my Model 3 but I think I'm just going to keep holding, seems silly to get rid of an investment for a depreciating asset. I've stayed long and strong since I bought in early 2014 and have only added to my position since.

Cant wait to finally get a permanent Tesla grin!

 

[RobStark]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

 

[zdriver]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

Sounds like the former, given progression of tweets.

 

[30seconds]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

Doesn't matter. Either level of production is not in analyst projections.

This will be a quick trip to $400

 

[Drumheller]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

I think it's best to estimate hitting a run rate of 5,000 / week the final week of 2017. If they do better than that, great!

 

[SteveG3]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

Probably ambiguous on purpose so a win feels like a win either way- and, in my view it IS a win either way. Elon does give us the adult answer repeatedly ("S curve, even a few weeks change to schedule can change total deliveries vastly,..." (paraphrasing)). He knows we're out here for the adult answer, but he also knows the bulk of the media will run right past that for the narrative they want to present, thus, ambiguous statements like this are a part of the mix as well.

 

[mmd]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

As much as it will produce 100k to 200k in 2017, the publicly stated goal last year. This goal was more serious than a tweet.
Also, production != deliveries, and the goal is also a soft statement saying "we can reach 20000 a month", not that "we will reach 20000 a month in Dec".
Tesla sets July 1, 2017 production date for Model 3, but there's a catch

Model X exponential ramp should also be looked at to know what Tesla means by exponential ramps. At these low numbers, whether something is exponential or linear or sub linear is really immaterial. Exponential matters most when numbers are big, not near the origin.

Last year, the goal for start of "mass production" was set to July 1, 2017. So completing SN1 on Friday and receiving regulatory approval for that as "ahead of schedule" makes me wonder what schedule Elon is referring to.

GM released the Bolt to reporters and car competitions ahead of customer deliveries. Hopefully Tesla will release the M3 to reporters for reviews so buyers will know what to expect before finalizing their orders.
GM was also confident enough to deliver the first production cars to common people. not just to friends and families of the CEO and board members.

 

[Navin]

As much as it will produce 100k to 200k in 2017, the publicly stated goal last year. This goal was more serious than a tweet.
Also, production != deliveries, and the goal is also a soft statement saying "we can reach 20000 a month", not that "we will reach 20000 a month in Dec".
Model X exponential ramp should also be looked at to know what Tesla means by exponential ramps. At these low numbers, whether something is exponential or linear or sub linear is really immaterial. Exponential matters most when numbers are big, not near the origin.l
Tesla sets July 1, 2017 production date for Model 3, but there's a catch

Last year, the goal for start of "mass production" was set to July 1, 2017. So completing SN1 on Friday and receiving regulatory approval for that as "ahead of schedule" makes me wonder what schedule Elon is referring to.

GM released the Bolt to reporters and car competition ahead of customer deliveries. Hopefully Tesla will release the M3 to reporters for reviews so buyers will know what to expect before finalizing their orders.

Spiegel is up late posting similar / identical
thoughts. Nice to know you know him (wink wink)

 

[JBRR]

Part of my investment research involves looking at the logic of the people on the opposite side of my bets.

The worse the logic of the smartest person on the other side, the better I like my bets.
I have yet to find a person on the other side that seemed really smart so I read the SA articles as a proxy of what goes through the head of the people taking my bets.

This gem is from last year: Tesla's Model 3 Mess Has Become Much Messier - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

"
I am 99.98% confident the cheapest Model 3 will cost significantly more than $35,000. And I'm equally confident no production versions of the Model 3 will be available in 2017.

Instead:

• Any version of the Model 3 that anyone wants to buy will cost more than $45,000; and

• Production versions of the Model 3 will not be here until Q2 of 2018, at the very earliest.

"

Confidence rate of 99.98% struck me as rather high so I tried betting him on that.
Gyazo - 81b886d7c0b8540f699d3191a4cf2489.png

Somewhat unsurprisingly I did not receive a reply on that one.

Luckily, plenty of people in the markets were willing to take my bets last year

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Given that sell-side analyst estimates for 2017 average $11-12B, this will lead to positive analyst revisions.

2018 revenue estimates average $20B, which means Tesla will be able to beat 2018 projections EVEN IF GROWTH STOPS IN DECEMBER 2017!

Obviously the exponential month-over-month growth rate will not drop from 100% in December to 0% in January.

 

[Intl Professor]

I did not expect Musk to tweet at all because he was too busy with SpaceX today after scrubbing the launch. The guy's amazing.

He actually cares about Tesla more than we do and obviously with more reason. Unfortunately for him as a person, too much of his life is tied up with his companies. We have so many examples of poor businessmen, who either buy governments, or pass on debt to others through bankruptcy or packaging it for resale. As noted in an old article in the Harvard Business Review, we have been managing our way to decline for a long time, principally through sales, legal maneuvers, accounting gimmicks, and capturing government.

It is a super tonic to see Musk redeploy wealth while invigorating the idea of excellent products. And there is the virtuous advantage of showing one can make money doing good, piles of it and piles of good. Bravo!

Here's to two successful launches tomorrow!

 

[RobStark]

Given that sell-side analyst estimates for 2017 average $11-12B, this should lead to positive analyst revisions.

2018 revenue estimates average $20B, which means Tesla will be able to beat 2018 projections EVEN IF GROWTH STOPS IN DECEMBER 2017!

BYD 2016 revenue was $15.3B

Mitsubishi Motors $17.9B.

Suzuki Motors $28.3B

Mazda $29.5B

Subaru $29.8B

The World’s Biggest Public Companies

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is Tesla going to deliver 20k Model 3s in December or deliver at a rate of 20k Model 3s/month in the last week in December?

I take it as 20,000 produced in December, but this doesn't matter.

What matters is this: If Tesla continues the exponential growth rate, they will produce "10,000 per week" a lot sooner than analysts expect.

Even if Tesla STOPS growing in December, it would STILL beat analysts' 2018 revenue estimates!

Obviously the more than 100% month-over-month growth rate for model 3 production ramp will not drop to 0% in January.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

This looks good for the auto industry,

Auto industry patents are driving momentum in clean technology

 

[SebastianR]

If Mercedes, BMW and Audi are not starting to be afraid now, I don't know any longer...
Let's be clear: the December 2017 run rate for the Model 3 of approx. 240k cars / year is about the run rate for the A4, 3-Series, C-Class (give or take over some years avg. between all of them).
If Tesla finds a market for these cars and then doubles over the course of 2018, we will see some of the predictions about bankruptcies in traditional car companies come true quicker than we think: always remember - Tesla doesn't need to destroy the market of the others, just shrinking it is enough to send them on their way!

 

[RobStark]

I take it as 20,000 produced in December, but this doesn't matter.

What matters is this: If Tesla continues the exponential growth rate, they will produce "10,000 per week" a lot sooner than analysts expect.

In the grand scope of things nothing short term matters and outer years is what matters.

But I want the 2017 (USA) sales crown to go to the Model 3 over Bolt.

 

[MXWing]

First of all I need to update my algo to buy shares every time @mmd posts. It would have been a profitable move.

Second, if I had to bet on how many M3s get delivered end of year I would of only guessed 10k. That would have seemed very optimistic. Wow. Anyone called the number as Elon did?

 

[sundaymorning]

Had to wake up at 3AM just in case we get a miracle. (Wiping eyes) am I dreaming or is this for real?

 

[Reciprocity]

If Mercedes, BMW and Audi are not starting to be afraid now, I don't know any longer...
Let's be clear: the December 2017 run rate for the Model 3 of approx. 240k cars / year is about the run rate for the A4, 3-Series, C-Class (give or take over some years avg. between all of them).
If Tesla finds a market for these cars and then doubles over the course of 2018, we will see some of the predictions about bankruptcies in traditional car companies come true quicker than we think: always remember - Tesla doesn't need to destroy the market of the others, just shrinking it is enough to send them on their way!

I don't think the direct comparison to those models is fair. Tesla is making new markets and moving people up in class, in part due to tax credits but mostly due to greater value for the dollar. TCO is much lower over 5 years, especially if you have solar. Someone driving 100+ miles per day can save a tremendous amount even with low gas prices.

The model 3 only magnifies this effect by being competitive all the way down to $23k base Camry level and as far down as $19k Corolla level over 5 years with solar. So it's not really fair to compare them directly, but there is no doubt that those auto makers and really every automaker should be scared. The model 3 is really an amazing vehicle if you think about a single car model that will eventually be able to cross so many segments from a base Carolla up to a BMW M3 or even a base 5 series. Can't wait for the model 3 convertible and coup!

 

[RobStark]

The model 3 only magnifies this effect by being competitive all the way down to $23k base Camry level and as far down as $19k Corolla level over 5 years with solar. So it's not really fair to compare them directly, but there is no doubt that those auto makers and really every automaker should be scared. The model 3 is really an amazing vehicle if you think about a single car model that will eventually be able to cross so many segments from a base Corolla up to a BMW M3 or even a base 5 series. Can't wait for the model 3 convertible and coup!

That is not how 90% plus of potential and actual customers will look at it.

The bottom line is the monthly payment. In most markets it will compete with those entry level luxury vehicles and particularly the PHEV versions.