2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[AlMc]

extremely likely that we will find support sometime next week and go up after ER
whether or not that happens the trick is not to get spooked out and sell your position just before the stock truly takes off
the bears are giving it their best shot, let's see what they got
my strong suspicion is that they will get trapped big time after ER

While I am much more conservative than you in my investments and just have an allocation to TSLA of about 20% of total stock holdings I am interested if there is (are) situations/PTs when you would sell holdings in TSLA...either because it reached a top or bottom in your estimation.

Your posts are generally about buying. Under what conditions/PTs would you sell?

Personally, I would sell everything TSLA related at $250 as a low and half at $500, and the other half at $1,000. (actually $999) as highs. I would have 'FU' money for myself and the next generation of AlMcs and still have plenty for charities. That would be personally satisfying enough for this TSLA (conservative) bull.

 

[Off Shore]

Well, if you have extremely expensive desires, it would make sense.

Like building a high-speed rail network across the US (and under the oceans), in my case; once I priced it out, and it costs many billions upfront even if you do make it most efficiently and most profitably.

Or colonizing Mars, in the case of Musk.



Perhaps one of our larger problem with world society is that a number of people want to become billionaires just to "have a high score" and have no rational or sane idea what they would do with the money, and some of them have been successful at doing so. They're very unhelpful people socially speaking: they're the ones who keep wanting to lower their own taxes.

I prefer billionaires for whom money is a tool to an end, and specifically a *good* end, such as preserving the world's environment. (So, billionaires who use money as a tool for establishing religious theocracy around the world are not cool: example, several previous Saudi and UAE royals)

Nice in theory; in reality the majority of the super rich are spending as little money as they must to make as much more money as they can.

 

[D-egg-O]

Elon Musk on Twitter This is a miss.

Elon Musk on Twitter This is a probable miss.

In 2016, Elon also did in fact say that Tesla would produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3's in 2H17. And no, not run-rate: “So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

Hmm... missing next year's revenue by up to $10 Billion, or 50 to 100%, is not a miss for the CEO of a large-cap multinational company?

Who are you, and what have you done with VA?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Who are you, and what have you done with VA?

Just don't ask my price predictions and we'll get along

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

the goal is to be the best that you can be. to see how far you can go in life starting from humble beginnings.

To each their own.

Having started from welfare and food stamps, I’m pretty happy with how far I’ve come from humble beginnings. I can’t guarantee that subsequent generations won’t squander what’s been built, but I’m proud to provide them with the opportunity to pursue their talents and ambitions.

 

[neroden]

View attachment 256726 On monthly chart we are highly likely to find support right here or low 300 if you don’t then we are going down to 260 to 280 area but I would not bet on it in my mind the likelihood of finding support right here is really high

Support in the 260 - 280 area works for my positions, so I guess I'm set up even in that eventuality...

 

[neroden]

Or be smarter than the average investor, which judging by the short interest in TSLA isn't a very high hurdle to overcome.

There are some very smart "investors" who simply don't bother to do their research, or delude themselves by ignoring information which is right in front of their faces. The mortgage market collapse in 2008 was easily predictable by looking at the available information (as documented in The Big Short), but most investors -- even those who were "smart" -- weren't bothering to look at the information. You do know how many of the short-sellers are spouting stuff which is simply known to be false.

This is why I say it's about paying attention to the information which is out there. Intelligence only works with good input information. Garbage In Garbage Out applies. Over the centuries, various highly intelligent but *unempirical* philosophers proved this when they designed large theories which were simply wrong because they never tested them against reality. I've seen some very pretty, clever theories invented by very smart people... which were, unfortunately, proven wrong by empirical testing, often *before* the theory was developed.

Obviously we've all done this on a small scale -- I know there are aspects of stocks I'm invested in where I have not done as much research as I really should have. But most investors do no more than a cursory analysis. This is *particularly* true with fund managers, because they are pushed to "diversify", and nobody can do in-depth research on 200 stocks -- nobody has the time.

 

[neroden]

My strategy is very simple I have about as much stock and calls as I could possibly can buy and I’m super leveraged and I will just sit out this correction and I will liquidate the minimum number of shares that I have to in order to meet my margin calls and whatever is left which is the maximum number of shares I can carry I will continue to hold for the long run

For strategy comparison: I'm currently unleveraged.

But I'm lined up with short puts so that if we do get a big dip I may end up slightly leveraged (maybe invested to about 105% of equity) with an effective purchase price for the new shares below $300. If this happens, I will then deleverage next year before my income tax bill is due, probably by selling things that aren't TSLA (thus meaning I get even more concentrated). I will deconcentrate sometime in late 2018 or 2019 because IMHO now is not the time to do that.

In the alternative where the dip isn't that big, the short puts will expire and I will remain unleveraged and have cash for the tax bill.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a massive dip after this ER. But even with "production hell", the January delivery report is very likely to be a positive surprise. Following the stock gyrations this year has been fun, but my investment timeframe has always been looking to late 2018/early 2019 at a minimum, so I'm really just following the gyrations for entertainment purposes...

 

[elasalle]

My observation here is that those who are long/ leveraged expect SP to go up after earnings and those that are under leveraged or short are expecting SP to go down -- simple as that

There is no issue with this and yes one should position themselves based on their own beliefs

but for average reader - Make sure you understand that their is a bias in "ALMOST" every posting - use them as reference for your own understanding - don't get too carried away

~ cheers

 

[bdy0627]

or around a critical product launch/ramp. Can anyone do a regression test of TA on the MS ramp in 2012? or MX ramp in 2015 and show how it works?

That would be interesting to look at. In my experience with TSLA going back to 2015, this stock will do anything and everything in the short term. Incredibly hard to predict, using TA or anything else. The volatility is pretty crazy.

 

[bdy0627]

Thanks for you honest reply.

There is always chance that some Algos(Option Hacker etc ) detect some patterns based on insider info etc etc all the way to earnings .. & IMHO that is where it can provide the most value Add.

Also, stop losses are often set with Technical levels in mind. When there is a bear attack, the goal is often to trip those, sending the stock rapidly lower. From a shorter term trading perspective, it's helpful to know where the stop losses are likely set.

 

[JBRR]

Sens. Franken, Murkowski Lead Bipartisan Push to Rebuild Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands with Resilient, Sustainable Infrastructure | Al Franken | Senator for Minnesota

 

[winfield100]

My teacher in statistics used to say a paranoid is someone who confuses probability with possibility. Similarly, there must be a distinction between outliers and outright liars. The long tails of the standard distribution contain both the accurate predictions of the lucky and the unlucky. That is why Taleb prefers Mandelbrot's probability. Which do you use, or is that deeply buried in your unconscious?

Just a smart-ass question. Not trying to shrink your brain, just in a race to fill the empty spaces in my brain before more of the plaque sets in.

Edit: Removed some garbage accidentally posted at beginning.

perhaps the ability to undersand the link might help, as it's "greek to me" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.6944.pdf

 

[bdy0627]

Unless of course you believe that the SP will be even lower in the future.

The problem with waiting is that if you have the chance to buy J19's or J20's when the SP is $310 is a slam dunk opportunity to make a bunch of money. So the decision boils down how greedy you want to be, or to one guarantied bird in the hand vs two in the bush

I really like the idea of being fully in on J19s by now since this is a great price long term. If the stock drops another 10% or whatever, I would convert some long term calls to medium term, such as June calls, for increased leverage. Those would then be converted back to long term as the stock rises. I personally prefer J19s to J20s for the next 6-9 months. There are just too many huge catalysts over this next 6-9 months to push the stock dramatically higher. This ramp is going to happen within the next few months and the stock will rise. It's really just a question of whether it will be rising from $320 or $290, and how fast it will go up.

 

[MitchJi]

@MitchJi : Does your wife work at Jeffries? While I did not think you listening to her may pan out well, she may turn out to be our new @Causalien and we will all wait for the 'crystal ball' announcements.

Lynne is currently working as a Nurse Practitioner. My original goal was to make enough money to buy an M3. Now that we've made enough to buy four fully loaded M3's my current goal is to make enough money for her to feel comfortable transitioning to alternative health care. She has been almost 100% correct with her immediate feelings. She has been experimenting with dowsing for longer term prices which has been less accurate but good enough so far (she believes she can do better) to be useful. Quoted from an email I sent to a friend:

We got back in. We sold 71 J19 $380's on August 4, for about $465k ($65 per share). The TSLA SP was about $365 when we sold. Current price of those options is about $280k ($40 per share). We removed about $100k from our accounts and we got the following.

We purchased 45 Jan 2019 $350 calls for $226,350 ($53.30 per share).

We also bought 25 June 15, 2018 $340 calls on Monday the 3rd for $105,625k ($45.25 per share.)

I'm pleased with how this has turned out so far. We have about the same safety (some June calls at a much lower strike price and the J19's are a lot lower as well) and leverage (70 calls now 7,000 shares) vs 71 calls that we started with and the $100k we pulled out was very helpful.

She learned to dowse from a Doctor (he said that she would be good at that [for medical purposes]) who saved my liver in 1988. When I arrived at his clinic my bilirubin was 11.25 (max normal range is 2.25)., which was what mine tested at when I left the clinic after four weeks. The only test beyond dowsing that he used was the bilirubin. I think the reason he had my bilirubin tested was because it was required for the appendix surgery that I needed. Amazingly accurate dowsing. When I was getting ready to fly home I was not strong enough. He dowsed a day about a week from then when he said I could book my ticket. Every day waiting for my appointment I was so weak that I would lie down on the floor. The day before my flight was the first first day that I was strong enough to sit in a chair. Lynne met a man who was donating money to a free school that he ran for indigent children. He told Lynne that the reason he was doing that was his gratitude that the Doctor had cured his case of aids.

While I am much more conservative than you in my investments and just have an allocation to TSLA of about 20% of total stock holdings I am interested if there is (are) situations/PTs when you would sell holdings in TSLA...either because it reached a top or bottom in your estimation.


Your posts are generally about buying. Under what conditions/PTs would you sell?

Personally, I would sell everything TSLA related at $250 as a low and half at $500, and the other half at $1,000. (actually $999) as highs. I would have 'FU' money for myself and the next generation of AlMcs and still have plenty for charities. That would be personally satisfying enough for this TSLA (conservative) bull.

What?! You are not planning to live off of the dividends?!

I'm hoping to talk to Lynne today about how many of our calls to sell if the SP gets to $355-$365, within the next ~two weeks. If the SP increases by that much that will tend to confirm her accuracy which will increase my faith that we will have another chance to buy in at about $330. Maybe up to 100% of our calls. We definitely made some mistakes in our last sale followed by the repurchase. We can either be encouraged by those results combined with the fact that we believe we can do better, or decide that we got some luck and decide not to push it. It will be tempting to be able to make about 100k,on the trade. When we have a decision I'll post it.

I intend to continue to buy calls as long as they are IMO a slam dunk I don't have a price target. I'd probably sell all of our TSLA if Elon and JB both leave Tesla. I believe that with the SP under $340 combined with Elon's confidence in the 10k per week and 20-25% margins it is a slam dunk. If you have any doubts I recommend watching a video of a used rocket landing on a barge.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sens. Franken, Murkowski Lead Bipartisan Push to Rebuild Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands with Resilient, Sustainable Infrastructure | Al Franken | Senator for Minnesota

Well this is good news. A nice setup for Tesla whose already generating good PR in Puerto R.

 

[mickificki]

Lynne is currently working as a Nurse Practitioner. My original goal was to make enough money to buy an M3. Now that we've made enough to buy four fully loaded M3's my current goal is to make enough money for her to feel comfortable transitioning to alternative health care. She has been almost 100% correct with her immediate feelings. She has been experimenting with dowsing for longer term prices which has been less accurate but good enough so far (she believes she can do better) to be useful. Quoted from an email I sent to a friend:

We got back in. We sold 71 J19 $380's on August 4, for about $465k ($65 per share). The TSLA SP was about $365 when we sold. Current price of those options is about $280k ($40 per share). We removed about $100k from our accounts and we got the following.

We purchased 45 Jan 2019 $350 calls for $226,350 ($53.30 per share).

We also bought 25 June 15, 2018 $340 calls on Monday the 23rd for $105,625k ($45.25 per share.)

I'm pleased with how this has turned out so far. We have about the same safety (some June calls at a much lower strike price and the J19's are a lot lower as well) and leverage (70 calls now 7,000 shares) vs 71 calls that we started with and the $100k we pulled out was very helpful.

She learned to dowse from a Doctor (he said that she would be good at that [for medical purposes]) who saved my liver in 1988. When I arrived at his clinic my bilirubin was 11.25 (max normal range is 2.25)., which was what mine tested at when I left the clinic after four weeks. The only test beyond dowsing that he used was the bilirubin. I think the reason he had my bilirubin tested was because it was required for the appendix surgery that I needed. Amazingly accurate dowsing. When I was getting ready to fly home I was not strong enough. He dowsed a day about a week from then when he said I could book my ticket. Every day waiting for my appointment I was so weak that I would lie down on the floor. The day before my flight was the first first day that I was strong enough to sit in a chair. Lynne met a man who was donating money to a free school that he ran for indigent children. He told Lynne that the reason he was doing that was his gratitude that the Doctor had cured his case of aids.


What?! You are not planning to live off of the dividends?!

I'm hoping to talk to Lynne today about how many of our calls to sell if the SP gets to $355-$365, within the next ~two weeks. If the SP increases by that much that will tend to confirm her accuracy which will increase my faith that we will have another chance to buy in at about $330. Maybe up to 100% of our calls. We definitely made some mistakes in our last sell and repurchase. We can either be encouraged by those results combined with the fact that we believe we can do better, or decide that we got some luck and decide not to push it. It will be tempting to be able to make about 100k,on the trade. When we have a decision I'll post it.

I intend to continue to buy calls as long as they are IMO a slam dunk I don't have a price target. I'd probably sell all of our TSLA if Elon and JB both leave Tesla. I believe that with the SP under $340 combined with Elon's confidence in the 10k per week and 20-25% margins it is a slam dunk. If you have any doubts I recommend watching a video of a used rocket landing on a barge.

Slightly off topic but is it better to buy J19 or wait for j20's in your opinion?

 

[AlMc]

What?! You are not planning to live off of the dividends?!

I'm hoping to talk to Lynne today about how many of our calls to sell if the SP gets to $355-$365, within the next ~two weeks. If the SP increases by that much that will tend to confirm her accuracy which will increase my faith that we will have another chance to buy in at about $330. Maybe up to 100% of our calls. We definitely made some mistakes in our last sell and repurchase. We can either be encouraged by those results combined with the fact that we believe we can do better, or decide that we got some luck and decide not to push it. It will be tempting to be able to make about 100k,on the trade.

I intend to continue to buy calls as long as they are IMO a slam dunk I believe that with the SP under $340 combined with Elon's confidence in the 10k per week and 20-25% margins it is a slam dunk. If you have any doubts I recommend watching a video of a used rocket landing on a barge.[/QUOTE]

If TSLA does hit some ultra bull SP predictions within the next two years I will happily sell all TSLA except one share so I can fly in from my island for the shareholder meetings.

More likely we will not see those lofty SPs and have no dividends for a minimum of 5 year (probably 7-10) as with all those GFs/vehicle and solar manufacturing plants suggested by EM the last thing we will all see is a dividend. I am OK with that.

 

[MitchJi]

Slightly off topic but is it better to buy J19 or wait for j20's in your opinion?

I'd make buying when you think that the SP is as low as you think it's going to be.
With an SP of ~$330 or less I'd choose J19's but I'd get a lower strike price, about $300-$340, than I'd get with J20's. If I bought J20's I'd probably buy $400's.

My reasoning for choosing J19's is that at these prices I believe that a substantial profit is a slam dunk, so I'd prefer to have a larger number of options (as compared to buying J20's) with higher deltas (ITM options with less time remaining have higher deltas). I'd plan to roll them to J20's by April or May at the latest after taking a nice profit, possibly much sooner.

Once when I tried to rolled some J19's to J19's with a higher strike price last year on my iPad I made a mistake and got J18's instead (January 19,2018's oops). I decided that at that time I believed that the SP was going to go up fairly soon so I kept the J18's for a few weeks and made about an extra $20k on that increase. Now with the SP at the current level I'd do that intentionally.

Two ways to reduce risk with options is to buy longer expirations and to buy when the SP is low. Even if I preferred to buy J20's I would not wait for the J20's if I believed that would mean that the SP is likely to increase while you are waiting.

Not an advice. Please use my thinking and informative to make your own decision.

 

[MitchJi]

What?! You are not planning to live off of the dividends?!

I'm hoping to talk to Lynne today about how many of our calls to sell if the SP gets to $355-$365, within the next ~two weeks. If the SP increases by that much that will tend to confirm her accuracy which will increase my faith that we will have another chance to buy in at about $330.

If TSLA does hit some ultra bull SP predictions within the next two years I will happily sell all TSLA except one share so I can fly in from my island for the shareholder meetings.

More likely we will not see those lofty SPs and have no dividends for a minimum of 5 year (probably 7-10) as with all those GFs/vehicle and solar manufacturing plants suggested by EM the last thing we will all see is a dividend. I am OK with that.

Do you believe that a chance to buy in after the ER, or ~$400 by April-May and $450-$500 by the end of 2018 are "some ultra bull predictions?"