2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Intl Professor]

perhaps the ability to undersand the link might help, as it's "greek to me" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.6944.pdf

We have similar fluency in Greek. I'm sure neroden could explain it. But flashing through page by page without any dallying, my head started to hurt.

 

[AlMc]

Do you believe that a chance to buy in after the ER, or ~$400 by April-May and $450-$500 by the end of 2018 are "some ultra bull predictions?"

I have been wrong as often as right on the SP coming out of an ER. My suspicion is the 'bots' will pull the SP down for this ER.

My plan this time is to keep 'TSLA bucket 3' in cash through the ER and use for J20s later in the month. I may miss some run up but it will fit more into my comfort zone.

I have toyed with selling all trading shares to even raise more cash for those LEAPs. I am going through my 'analysis/paralysis' phase on that question.

 

[Snapdragon III]

I'd make buying when you think that the SP is as low as you think it's going to be.
With an SP of ~$330 or less I'd choose J19's but I'd get a lower strike price, about $300-$340, than I'd get with J20's. If I bought J20's I'd probably buy $400's.

My reasoning for choosing J19's is that at these prices I believe that a substantial profit is a slam dunk, so I'd prefer to have a larger number of options (as compared to buying J20's) with higher deltas (ITM options with less time remaining have higher deltas). I'd plan to roll them to J20's by April or May at the latest after taking a nice profit, possibly much sooner.

Once when I tried to rolled some J19's to J19's with a higher strike price last year on my iPad I made a mistake and got J18's instead (January 19,2018's oops). I decided that at that time I believed that the SP was going to go up fairly soon so I kept the J18's for a few weeks and made about an extra $20k on that increase. Now with the SP at the current level I'd do that intentionally.

Two ways to reduce risk with options is to buy longer expirations and to buy when the SP is low. Even if I preferred to buy J20's I would not wait for the J20's if I believed that would mean that the SP is likely to increase while you are waiting.

Not an advice. Please use my thinking and informative to make your own decision.

I mostly agree with what you have to say here, but there is one more big factor that I would at least ad to the mix when making the decision, and that is the tax implications. If you can hold the Leaps over a year, and pay long term capital gains on them, it could make a huge difference if you get lucky and the stock goes up substantially over the next couple years. If I bought the Jan 19 now, I would probably be uncomfortable holding them for a year, as it would put me too close to expiration, and you could get killed by a short term panic. It would be much easier to hold the Jan 20 for over a year.

I am holding Jan 19's that I bought 1/17-4/17 that I am sitting on and hoping to sell mid next year for a long term capital gain. The volatility is killing me in the meantime.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I mostly agree with what you have to say here, but there is one more big factor that I would at least ad to the mix when making the decision, and that is the tax implications. If you can hold the Leaps over a year, and pay long term capital gains on them, it could make a huge difference if you get lucky and the stock goes up substantially over the next couple years. If I bought the Jan 19 now, I would probably be uncomfortable holding them for a year, as it would put me too close to expiration, and you could get killed by a short term panic. It would be much easier to hold the Jan 20 for over a year.

I am holding Jan 19's that I bought 1/17-4/17 that I am sitting on and hoping to sell mid next year for a long term capital gain. The volatility is killing me in the meantime.

Totally agree. I am in a similar situation with J 19s. they will convert to LTC gains in Dec 2017.
my J 2018s that I already have LTC gains is not doing so well but I do not want to sell these before 1/2/18 for tax reasons
meantime my call portfolio went from a low of $0.380 to a high of $1.4 and currently at $0.6 something. if SP drops after ER then I'll lose tons more but I will not sell

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The first episode of What Did Elon Mean? gathered more than 75 votes, and we all witnessed a neck and neck race until one side pulled away for a stunning photo finish:

Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean?

Let's see if What Did Elon Mean: 2nd Edition also attracts just as much excitement for spectators across the Earth:

Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean? - 2nd Edition

 

[avoigt]

McKinsey Study: Trends in EV designs

Some nice not unexpected results from Mc Kinsey.

Trends in electric-vehicle design | McKinsey & Company

 

[neroden]

Congrats to anyone who scooped up shares below $319.50 (today). I'm not that quick.

 

[elasalle]

Congrats to anyone who scooped up shares below $319.50. I'm not that quick.

How can I like myself

 

[jhm]

Blind Faith Price Targets

Blind Faith update! Rejoice!

 

[Curt Renz]

I've posted this in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may bear repeating here.

This morning TSLA slipped 59¢ under its 200-day simple moving average of $317.25, then rebounded a few dollars from the day’s low. If this holds, that SMA may have proven to be a significant support level.

Meanwhile, note that GM, F and TSLA are all down by similar percentages at this moment.

As was similarly the case on Friday morning, I've posted this in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may again bear repeating here.

The 200-day SMA now at $317.67 appears to have been successfully tested for a second day. This time the day's low was 42¢ under the SMA, again resulting in a rebound of a few dollars.

Meanwhile, GM is experiencing a much tougher day following a Goldman Sachs downgrade to Sell.

 

[avoigt]

Even if we go below the 200 SMA and dip I would expect a rather dynamic upturn after. With 17% correction lately all negatives are priced in so we are positioned for a positive development in the next week unless something very harsh is showing up at ER.

Today could be a good timing to go in with calls. November 16th event should add to the positives as well. Not an investment advice just my private assessment.

Technical Analysis: Is This Another Opportunity in Tesla Stock?

 

[augkuo]

M3 is a well kept secret with NDAs and availability to just employees and a few who must have signed NDAs.
The video is great, .. and is the best after the glimpses we got from OCDetailing. Still it cannot give away all the secrets because the latest software packages were not available yet at the time or recording.

If on Oct 31st/Nov 1st we see a S/X refresh to make some stuff in par with M3 and also be told that M3 production is not as bad as what it is made out to be .. we can expect fireworks.

Note: just speculation, and if you have already speculated on the SP crossing 500, please digest this with a few grains of salt

That video shows how much Tesla's learned about usability - after M3 comes out, I'm sure Model S/X will get a refresh otherwise they'll be "osborned" out (no lighted vanity mirrors on the sun visors??) . It'll also lower the costs of the Model S/X and reduce values of older cars thereby converting more ICE users

 

[Chickenlittle]

I suspect 1st week November will be nonemployee orders will be taken. Remember 1000 dollar discount goes away Oct 31

 

[bdy0627]

This stock is just drifting now, waiting for some news...

 

[DurandalAI]

Communication issues between Japanese and US workers (and incompetent US employees) was listed among problems underlying cell production at GF1.

Maybe unionization will fix their ability to get quality employees. /sarcasm
It’s sad how hard it is to find people who don’t genuinely suck. When interviewing people it’s disheartening how many will copy/paste skills from the job description but then not really have those skills or knowledge. I know it isn’t anything new, but still it is disappointing.

 

[DurandalAI]

I suspect 1st week November will be nonemployee orders will be taken. Remember 1000 dollar discount goes away Oct 31

I doubt “referrals” could even apply to the M3 anyhow.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I doubt “referrals” could even apply to the M3 anyhow.

Looking forward to the next MS/X rev, hope the improvements justify the removal of the referral bonus. Not that I will buy a MS/X for myself, but maybe we get to see cool stuff that will trickle down to the M3 eventually.

 

[Skryll]

Maybe unionization will fix their ability to get quality employees. /sarcasm
It’s sad how hard it is to find people who don’t genuinely suck. When interviewing people it’s disheartening how many will copy/paste skills from the job description but then not really have those skills or knowledge. I know it isn’t anything new, but still it is disappointing.

You may get better applicants if existing workers dont report having to constantly work overtime under bad and unhealthy conditions.

 

[augkuo]

I doubt “referrals” could even apply to the M3 anyhow.

It only applies to new Model S/X purchases ;(

Model S and Model X: Free Unlimited Supercharging
Owners can give five friends free, unlimited Supercharging with the purchase of a new Model S or Model X. Referral orders placed before October 31, 2017 will also receive a $1,000 purchase credit. Referral orders placed after October 31st, 2017 will still receive free unlimited Supercharging, but not the purchase credit.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Congrats to anyone who scooped up shares below $319.50 (today). I'm not that quick.

Thanks. It was luck really.