2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

And finally tesla chart over same time frame

 

[TradingInvest]

I totally agree with you on this. What most people do not realize is that we are in the midst of a raging bull market. NASDAQ composite made an all-time high today. We are in a PEriod similar to 1994 to 1995 and this market could easily run for another 3 to 4 years straight up with major corrections like 1997 and 1998 crash
so far Tesla is under performing in the short-term but this is about to change very rapidly. Between now and year end and that is over the next 6 to 7 weeks we are about to see a huge rally in tesla and it is going to close the year very strong and outperform the stock market. $380 is going to be crossed very easily and the next resistance is going to be $400 and we will take it up from there. Double top in Tesla is a fallacy promulgated by Bears or clueless weak longs who have no freaking idea about the long-term charts
all you have to do is look at the long-term charts and you will easily say that SP is going to be $1000 stock within the next 12 to 13 months and eventually there’s going to be a $2000-$3000 stock before this bull run is over if not much higher

Anyone who thinks TSLA got a double top is clueless. This stock keeps washing out the weak hands, shorts are so sure they got it right... I used to think short squeeze can't happen again with TSLA, now I think we could get an epic short squeeze again. The setup is perfect.

I don't invest based on the possibility of a short squeeze. Tesla will turn into a trillion dollar company even if there is no squeeze. For all the potential investors, don't get fooled by the shorts and institutional traders. Hold tight make sure you still have your shares when this stock pass $10,000 a share. If Apple can buyback nearly half of their float, I have no doubt Tesla will buy back more when they have the cash in a few years. By the time Tesla becomes a trillion dollar company, it's float will be way less than 100 million shares.

 

[TMSE]

Anyone who thinks TSLA got a double top is clueless. This stock keeps washing out the weak hands, shorts are so sure they got it right... I used to think short squeeze can't happen again with TSLA, now I think we could get an epic short squeeze again. The setup is perfect.

I don't invest based on the possibility of a short squeeze. Tesla will turn into a trillion dollar company even if there is no squeeze. For all the potential investors, don't get fooled by the shorts and institutional traders. Hold tight make sure you still have your shares when this stock pass $10,000 a share. If Apple can buyback nearly half of their float, I have no doubt Tesla will buy back more when they have the cash in a few years. By the time Tesla becomes a trillion dollar company, it's float will be way less than 100 million shares.

About buyback: High growth companies do not do buyback, they invest every dollar they have towards growth. Dividends and stock buybacks are clear signs that the Management does not expect major growth ahead.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now I could to spend the whole freaking night analyzing these charts but Ann Boleyn wants to go to bed and watch Versailles so draw your own conclusions I will post my insights as and when I please have fun

 

[TradingInvest]

About buyback: High growth companies do not do buyback, they invest every dollar they have towards growth. Dividends and stock buybacks are clear signs that the Management does not expect major growth ahead.

I was not saying Tesla will buy back shares next week or next year, or even next 3 years. I was saying when Tesla have a lot of money...it will happen. Like what Apple did in recent years. Google did stock buyback too.

Study what happened to Apple's float in the past 14 years, you will know what I was talking about. At one pointed Warren Buffett suggested to Steve Jobs to consider share buyback, he didn't. If he acted at that time, Apple's float would have reduced 80% by now. If Apple can buy back 40%, I have no doubt Tesla can buy back 60%. Just watch it unfold. It will be a long ride.

 

[larmor]

Macro bull market which may be exuberancy however that does not change 400k pre orders, and soon to be realized TE revenues. Additionally development of EAP/fsd continue with accumulation of millions of miles per day a very rich on the ground data.

Tesla will soon be unhinged from the macro market....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Cash, not income, but good point. Find it hard to assume 15,000 $50k reservations. Maybe 5,000 which would total $500M with the founders.

15k ex-founders deposits are almost a certainty. Think about the 250k people who bought Model S/X so far and the buzz R2 generated.

Check this out: Tesla’s next-gen Roadster stole the show from the electric truck, data shows

$1B in R2 deposits is in the bag. The question is, "how much cash the Semi will bring in?" I think another $1B in the next 12 months.

 

[mutle]

Study what happened to Apple's float in the past 14 years, you will know what I was talking about. At one pointed Warren Buffett suggested to Steve Jobs to consider share buyback, he didn't. If he acted at that time, Apple's float would have reduced 80% by now. If Apple can buy back 40%, I have no doubt Tesla can buy back 60%. Just watch it unfold. It will be a long ride.

Another great thing about Apple's buy back is that it helps with quarterly results. Every quarter the analysts are way too low with their EPS estimates because they don't account for the large number of shares that get retired. It also reduces the dividend payments.

 

[aubreymcfato]

These Norway data are up to date with yesterday (thanks @nasatech for the dataset!)
Tesla notes

The last graph is the most insightful.

Of course, you can see how final months of a quarter are great (Sep 2017 FTW).
Yesterday was the best day of a "non-final-month-in-a-quarter (NFMIAQ)" ever (85 in one day),
and this November is already the best NFMIAQ ever, per se. We are more than 3 times Nov 16.

If there's any logic in these numbers (and it should be, it's a matter of logistic),
I hope this is an indicator of a *great* December, which of course is historically a great month.
Evidence is piling on. Prepare for plaid mode.

 

[Reciprocity]

15k ex-founders deposits are almost a certainty. Think about the 250k people who bought Model S/X so far and the buzz R2 generated.

Check this out: Tesla’s next-gen Roadster stole the show from the electric truck, data shows

$1B in R2 deposits is in the bag. The question is, "how much cash the Semi will bring in?" I think another $1B in the next 12 months.

Both of those seem very high. That would be 200,000 semi reservations. Also might be high for the roadster as the original only sold 2500 total? Maybe a billion total for both. Farrari sells about 8000 cars a year, if I recall correctly. Will be interesting to see how reservations impact those super car companies.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Both of those seem very high. That would be 200,000 semi reservations. Also might be high for the roadster as the original only sold 2500 total? Maybe a billion total for both. Farrari sells about 8000 cars a year, if I recall correctly. Will be interesting to see how reservations impact those super car companies.

Note that I said "in the next 12 months" for Semi reservations.

200,000 to 250,000 Semi's are sold each year in the United States alone, and the figure is one million units globally.

 

[JRP3]

Both of those seem very high. That would be 200,000 semi reservations. Also might be high for the roadster as the original only sold 2500 total? Maybe a billion total for both. Farrari sells about 8000 cars a year, if I recall correctly. Will be interesting to see how reservations impact those super car companies.

I keep going back and forth on possible Roadster volume. It's a low volume category but the new Roadster just kills everything out there. I haven't looked but I suspect the 620 mile range is greater than many comparable ICE's. Assuming the Roadster can sustain high speeds without overheating I can't imagine choosing any other car if you're in the market for a supercar.

 

[Reciprocity]

Note that I said "in the next 12 months" for Semi reservations.

200,000 to 250,000 Semi's are sold each year in the United States alone, and the figure is one million units globally.

I'm a Tesla bull for sure, but ~50% market share in reservations seems high to me. The other thing is that companies don't like to tie up money for several years while they wait. Is it normal to order these types of vehicles as much as a year in advance or is out more like cars and you buy them out of existing inventory? How much customizing is there that the manufactures do. I certainly think 50% long term is attainable but maybe just not 2 years before they hit the road in low volumes much less high volumes. You will know if they have over 100,000 orders because they will have to announce another gigafactory or massively speed up the existing one. If in fact the battery pack is 1MWh, then 100,000 would be 100GWh so assume a mix of smaller and larger packs and 200,000 reservations, you could be looking at atleast 150GWh just for semis?

 

[Tslynk67]

New Roadster is a completely different proposition to the original, which was, let's face it, a bit ropey. This new one is an object of total and utter desire, backed-up with a service-centre and super-charger network, as well as Tesla not looking to go out of business at any moment (despite what some might be continually hoping and posting).

Nevertheless, it's a lot of money so a pretty limited demographic and there will always be many people who'd rather a Ferrari, Lambo or Porsche, just because that's what they want, or like the sound and feel of an engine, the smell of petrol.

I couldn't possibly begin to guess the annual sales for such a car other than that I intend to get one once the kids have left home.

 

[jeewee3000]

I'm a Tesla bull for sure, but ~50% market share in reservations seems high to me. The other thing is that companies don't like to tie up money for several years while they wait.

I agree. Except for huge companies with enough cash available, the average trucking company wants an immediate return on their investment (= the purchase of a semi). This is why I believe that the semi reservations will only start to really ramp up close to first deliveries, i.e. 2019. The early adopters do it mainly for PR-reasons, future savings second.

 

[JRP3]

Here's the first of the Roadster "killers" Startup unveils new electric hypercar prototype, claims specs competing with Tesla’s new Roadster

Battery cooling system is interesting, but I don't like the vehicle styling, and the $1 million price tag does not excite.

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm a Tesla bull for sure, but ~50% market share in reservations seems high to me. The other thing is that companies don't like to tie up money for several years while they wait. Is it normal to order these types of vehicles as much as a year in advance or is out more like cars and you buy them out of existing inventory? How much customizing is there that the manufactures do. I certainly think 50% long term is attainable but maybe just not 2 years before they hit the road in low volumes much less high volumes. You will know if they have over 100,000 orders because they will have to announce another gigafactory or massively speed up the existing one. If in fact the battery pack is 1MWh, then 100,000 would be 100GWh so assume a mix of smaller and larger packs and 200,000 reservations, you could be looking at atleast 150GWh just for semis?

Love replying to myself. The 150GWh number should really stun people. This is why batteries will be a real issue for the competition. They dont have to build their own cells, but they have to commit large amounts of funds today to secure supply or forget about it. With some 200 models coming by 2020 and Tesla alone with orders! for 150GWh worth of products, who is going to build everyone else's batteries.

 

[electracity]

The question is, "how much cash the Semi will bring in?" I think another $1B in the next 12 months.

Tesla my not want to price the semi until the end of next year. Tesla has a difficult decision in deciding how big to build the semi factory. A lot of Tesla business lines are competing for capital in the time frame of the truck factory decision.

 

[SunCatcher]

Here's the first of the Roadster "killers" Startup unveils new electric hypercar prototype, claims specs competing with Tesla’s new Roadster

Battery cooling system is interesting, but I don't like the vehicle styling, and the $1 million price tag does not excite.

Looks like something Wile E Coyote would order from Acme, with the hopes of finally catching up with the Roadrunner.

 

[electracity]

The 150GWh number should really stun people. This is why batteries will be a real issue for the competition.

Tesla may continue to buy batteries (non gigafactory) as a way to leverage other peoples capital. Continually trying to talk Panasonic into making adequate capital investment is probably getting tiresome.