2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

Don't post much anymore but want to warn you that the conference will be a lot more important to sp than letter. WAIT for the conference before acting

Sound advice thank you

 

[T3slaTulips]

Someone made their 312 buy.

 

[myusername]

Someone made their 312 buy.

bottom of the channel
if it breaks through
a 210 we will test

(everyone please post in 3 line fragments... thanks)

 

[geneclean55]

Be wary of the fearmongers that pop up today.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm adding to my position at $312.

 

[brian45011]

Thanks. I having a mini panic attack right now. I just need some reassurance that everything will be ok. LOL. I know I shouldn't be worried as TSLA will be a successful long term investment, but from a short term perspective, it's really anyone's guess. I'm just trying to decide whether I should sell some shares in case of a drop, then re-buy them back later. But I'll still be kicking myself if we have a beat today. That's why I am so torn right now..

If the earnings are causing that much angst, why not sell some shares. Put half the proceeds in ITM weekly calls for 5/12 or 5/19 expirations and save the other half to buy back in if the share price drops after earnings are reported?

 

[ggr]

This is the other thing that drives me crazy. So many of the analysts don't specify whether their expectation is for TSLA's GAAP or non-GAAP numbers, which just leads to a pile of confusion and nobody really knowing if a beat is a beat.

Analysts usually refer to the non-GAAP figures.

 

[TNEVol]

@myusername I have left you off of ignore because at times you have provided good information even if mosty bearish. I want to hear logical analysis. Your "scam" posts are not useful. Are you not admitting that Tesla has achieved and exceeded the vast majority of the Master Plan? Are you saying that my wife didn't stand in line with about 150 other people to make 2 reservations in Nashville TN of all locations? Are you saying that Tesla wont make at least enough Model 3s for us to get our cares? Are you saying that Tesla didn't meet and exceed its projections (other than optimistic timing)? Finally are you telling me that my 4 year ownership and almost 100K miles of the best car I have ever driven is a scam? I would appreciate any detail you can provide that this is a scam but not by intentional negative speculation. Thank you.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Maybe the shorts know something that I don't
I'll take my lumps and stay the course
If it goes down I'll deal with margin calls as they come
If it goes up then I'd be totally ecstatic
Doing nothing sitting tight

 

[WarpedOne]

Hey mister, that is poetry right there!

 

[Mkorpal]

Looks like I may be buying at 310 today. I'm comfortable with that.

 

[everman]

So far the price action is conspiring to keep me from my $312.10 purchase (it's all I had, it's as high as I could go!)

Still some time left, I'm seeing lower highs and lower lows, so might still snag it.

Boom. Filled. Commence runaway...

 

[myusername]

@myusername I have left you off of ignore because at times you have provided good information even if mosty bearish. I want to hear logical analysis. Your "scam" posts are not useful. Are you not admitting that Tesla has achieved and exceeded the vast majority of the Master Plan? Are you saying that my wife didn't stand in line with about 150 other people to make 2 reservations in Nashville TN of all locations? Are you saying that Tesla wont make at least enough Model 3s for us to get our cares? Are you saying that Tesla didn't meet and exceed its projections (other than optimistic timing)? Finally are you telling me that my 4 year ownership and almost 100K miles of the best car I have ever driven is a scam? I would appreciate any detail you can provide that this is a scam but not by intentional negative speculation. Thank you.

heard... i'll lay off that. to say the least, this is quite a psychological adventure.

regarding technicals... i sold 1/3rd of my puts I purchased at the top on Monday (pure luck) at 212... recovering 150% of my cost... and now the rest is profit.

as I mentioned... the bottom of the 20 day channel is (was) at 312.xx... and now we're about to test the 210 area... if the day closes in the 208 range... we're 10% from the 270 gap.

 

[Richgoogol]

Is there something that the insiders or traders know about that we don't? people are just dumping away since lunch

 

[ZenMan]

310 Combined Put / Call premium is $17.15 / $310 = implied move after earnings of 5.5%. Seems low to me. Buy a straddle?

 

[luvb2b]

feels like the stock is flushing everyone it can before earnings. monday we were rocking and flushing out weak shorts. straight down since then more-or-less and now giving swirlies to the weak longs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Whoever is short going into the earnings fully deserves what's coming to them.

 

[geneclean55]

The good old shake and bake set-up

 

[esk8mw]

Whoever is short going into the earnings fully deserves what's coming to them.

Despite a whole bunch of coaching otherwise, a friend just told me he went in huge on margin in out of the money puts for the ER. I keep telling him he is going to die.

 

[mmd]

Maybe the shorts know something that I don't
I'll take my lumps and stay the course
If it goes down I'll deal with margin calls as they come
If it goes up then I'd be totally ecstatic
Doing nothing sitting tight

You post a lot of upbeat statements, but your average is only $209? That shows, when you purchased your own TSLA shares.

I'm in a similar situation with way too much common and calls I've been buying this stock and calls since December like a maniac, like there's no tomorrow
Between common and calls my total exposure to TSLA is astounding at least for an individual investor
I've never had such a large position in any stock ever I guess I just got carried away and kept on buying for months non stop
My average cost basis is $209 or so not counting numerous calls
Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best
I have a feeling this is my greatest trade ever

Now, or any post ER bump will be a good time to short/sell the shares. Many weak shorts are gone. Will be much less support on the way down. In 1-2 years, weak fundamentals will give some great returns. IMHO. If you have the stomach to digest upto 50% paper loss in the interim.