Thanks. I having a mini panic attack right now. I just need some reassurance that everything will be ok. LOL. I know I shouldn't be worried as TSLA will be a successful long term investment, but from a short term perspective, it's really anyone's guess. I'm just trying to decide whether I should sell some shares in case of a drop, then re-buy them back later. But I'll still be kicking myself if we have a beat today. That's why I am so torn right now..
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racer26
Active Member
This is the other thing that drives me crazy. So many of the analysts don't specify whether their expectation is for TSLA's GAAP or non-GAAP numbers, which just leads to a pile of confusion and nobody really knowing if a beat is a beat.
i think there's an alternate reality for TSLA that defines a beat... it looks more like this:
it doesn't matter what the numbers come in as... if the stock is up after the ER... it's a beat.
my favorite one was 4Q15 when they missed by something like 100% or more... cash looked like crap and basically on paper it was a completely failed company... but then of course there was the M3 "reveal"... so the stock rose from $140 to $260 in a direct line post ER.
that was over a year ago... hundreds of millions taken in for "reservations"... announcements made on numbers reported only once that have since been used pretty much as a slogan for justifying the continuous rise in the stock price.
whether or not you believe this whole thing is a scam... even if it's not... this is the perfect setup for one.
Be wary of the fearmongers who pop up today.
racer26
Active Member
The difference of course, is that you don't build a scam on a successful company that took over 10 years to build.
You build a scam on a flimsy foundation.
Hence - if you were making these arguments about Faraday Future today, or Tesla 10 years ago when taking early reservation money for Roadsters, I might have agreed with you. Today, taking $1000 reservations on Model 3? No.
erthquake
Active Member
Unless you are a very sophisticated investor, you'll probably end losing more money by trying to time the short-term market than if you just sit back and hold your investment for the next five years. Go out for nice walk, help a person in need, or do something else positive and come back this afternoon for ER. It'll make you feel much better.
No worry. I am TSLA long term invester since 2014, my average price is 235. I have thousands of shares and I did not sell a single share even when it was dropped to 140s. If you are a longterm investor and believe in Elon. you do not play earnings....I learned my lessons from NFLX and AMZN, otherwise I am retired now....
Chickenlittle
Banned
Don't post much anymore but want to warn you that the conference will be a lot more important to sp than letter. WAIT for the conference before acting
erthquake
Active Member
I think that's the idea. They make money of retail investor uncertainty and confusion.
Been there, done that, lost 30% over the course of just a few months. Not worth it unless you're a super computer or you really like to gamble.
reasonable point... but there's super scams where pretty much the original objective was to rake in cash... and then there's the progressive ones that start out with noble intentions and over time end up with compounding misdirections that tell a completely different story than what the reality is... those simply take longer.
Enron was a considered a completely solid organization right before it collapsed... and it spanned decades.
everman
Member
So far the price action is conspiring to keep me from my $312.10 purchase (it's all I had, it's as high as I could go!)
Still some time left, I'm seeing lower highs and lower lows, so might still snag it.
Still some time left, I'm seeing lower highs and lower lows, so might still snag it.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah. Consensus of consensus estimates. Ha. Second derivative
mmd
Active Member
LOL.. After it's all said and done and hundreds of millions siphoned into opaque entities, SEC will come out with their "investugation" on why Tesla didn't disclose the M3 cancellations! Just like the Sunrun and Solarcity investigation announced today. Too little, too late.
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--**edit** meant to quote the quote you were replying to about panicking right now
Unless youre a day trader - trying to make money off microtransactions and market timing is a bad idea. Just sit on your tesla investment and hold long term. You might be able to sell and miss out on losing a few bucks over the next few days, but you could also miss the timing on the rebound and really kick yourself for it. They say most of the money made in the stock market comes from the few days a year where your investments really kill it - would be a shame to miss the timing on TSLA in the future.
Smart move in this situation might be to scrape up the extra money you have lying around and buy as much stock as you can while its falling. Im trying to pool together what I can and pick up 10 shares or so while the price is down. Ill be grateful I did in the long run, atleast that's the hope lol
racer26
Active Member
You mean like the companies issuing new debt to fund their share buyback and dividend programs?
racer26
Active Member
I suspect the reverse is true as well, though, that the majority of the money lost in the stock market comes from the few days a year that your investments really blow chunks. Missing those could be just as valuable as catching the days they kill it.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Hi Chicken,
Nice to hear from you!
My view from most TSLA earnings calls as it relates to After Hours price action:
- The Earnings Release letter typically accounts for the vast majority of the AH price movement.
- the Conference Call typically has a minimal impact during AH.
I'm struggling to come up with a recent earnings call where the Q&A really moved the stock.
The announcement about CFO leaving was a hit of course. But that wasn't Q&A
BEWARE! You're stumbling on the edge of the deadly Haiku here. (Speaking from exposure.)
Edit: Noticing I wasn't the first to notice.
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