2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Navin]

Guys - shorts are way underwater and we had a dip on Friday. Be mindful of shorts coming on here today/tonight to spread FUD and try to
Build some momentum.

 

[Starno]

Guys - shorts are way underwater and we had a dip on Friday. Be mindful of shorts coming on here today/tonight to spread FUD and try to
Build some momentum.

This would be nice actually, that would mean even more leverage once the short squeeze happens.

The higher the amount of shorts are involved with the stock while the SP is getting higher. The more brutal it will be.

 

[Starno]

Alright so right now we're about 12% away from 400.
If we want to break it next week, it will take :
2,5% increase everyday until friday.
3% increase everyday until thursday.
_____

The scenario that I think has potential to play out is a little rally on monday, something like 4% on monday taking the stock to around 372.
Tuesday an other 3% with a close around 383. Wednesday 2,8% taking the stock around 393.

Then I can see either a little resistance around 390-395 that can last until next monday. Or big breakthrough, and we finish the week over 405.

 

[dhrivnak]

Alright so right now we're about 12% away from 400.
If we want to break it next week, it will take :
2,5% increase everyday until friday.
3% increase everyday until thursday.
_____

The scenario that I think has potential to play out is a little rally on monday, something like 4% on monday taking the stock to around 372.
Tuesday an other 3% with a close around 383. Wednesday 2,8% taking the stock around 393.

Then I can see either a little resistance around 390-395 that can last until next monday. Or big breakthrough, and we finish the week over 405.

Remember for most stocks 12% is a very good year! And in a week unheard of.

 

[geneclean55]

Alright so right now we're about 12% away from 400.
If we want to break it next week, it will take :
2,5% increase everyday until friday.
3% increase everyday until thursday.
_____

The scenario that I think has potential to play out is a little rally on monday, something like 4% on monday taking the stock to around 372.
Tuesday an other 3% with a close around 383. Wednesday 2,8% taking the stock around 393.

Then I can see either a little resistance around 390-395 that can last until next monday. Or big breakthrough, and we finish the week over 405.

I like your style

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guys - shorts are way underwater and we had a dip on Friday. Be mindful of shorts coming on here today/tonight to spread FUD and try to
Build some momentum.

You mean like this?
My Model X 90D Driver Side Falcon door opened on Freeway driving 65mph with my 6 y.o. sitting next to it • r/teslamotors

 

[MXWing]

You mean like this?
My Model X 90D Driver Side Falcon door opened on Freeway driving 65mph with my 6 y.o. sitting next to it • r/teslamotors

We'd be in trouble if there was a fatality or something.

If people want to sell shares / short stock without spending 10 seconds to think about how ludicrous it would be for FWD to open with wind resistance at 65mph deserve their fate.

Though I'm sure some hedge fund would pay to create an animation of both FWD swinging open to full height at 65mph, all the passenger flying out, car rolling over and causing dozens of fatalities on the freeway etc.

 

[Lump]

You mean like this?
My Model X 90D Driver Side Falcon door opened on Freeway driving 65mph with my 6 y.o. sitting next to it • r/teslamotors

Jon McNeill, Tesla Head of Global Sales and Service didn't feel it was FUD & contacted the owner, Tesla probably wants to NDA the owner & get thier hands on the car now after repeatedly failing to fix complaints.

 

[MP3Mike]

get thier hands on the car now after repeatedly failing to fix complaints.

Get their hands on it? From the story it is currently in their possession.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Thanks to all posters at TMC.

TSLA 100% run up of SP in seven months, and yet many are still wanting a quick buck. I see consolidation or softening of SP until M3 unveiling. Long term Tesla bull since 2012, even more so now with Tesla Energy, Tesla Semi... I have spent thousands of hours researching Tesla and am one of their believers that they will help change the World. TSLA is a roller coaster stock and while everyone likes the 100% gains, if you are not able to withstand the 50% drops (and many are not), this stock is not for you.

My story: Bought in a $29 SP and at my peak held 2600 shares. Always thought Tesla was a great investment, however tried to time MM four separate times to improve profits, each time selling low, buying high, cutting my shares in half. My lesson learned is that I can't time MM. Now I am in for the long haul and hope I have the resolve to add on the dips of 25%, rather than selling. My money is good with TSLA, even if SP goes nowhere from here. After all, I want to be involved with helping change the World.

 

[winfield100]

Jon McNeill, Tesla Head of Global Sales and Service didn't feel it was FUD & contacted the owner, Tesla probably wants to NDA the owner & get thier hands on the car now after repeatedly failing to fix complaints.

A more correct comment

Jon McNeill, Tesla Head of Global Sales and Service ........ contacted the owner, ........

All else is speculative FUD unless you actually know more, but back on ignore <click>

 

[kbM3]

Thanks to all posters at TMC.

TSLA 100% run up of SP in seven months, and yet many are still wanting a quick buck. I see consolidation or softening of SP until M3 unveiling. Long term Tesla bull since 2012, even more so now with Tesla Energy, Tesla Semi... I have spent thousands of hours researching Tesla and am one of their believers that they will help change the World. TSLA is a roller coaster stock and while everyone likes the 100% gains, if you are not able to withstand the 50% drops (and many are not), this stock is not for you.

My story: Bought in a $29 SP and at my peak held 2600 shares. Always thought Tesla was a great investment, however tried to time MM four separate times to improve profits, each time selling low, buying high, cutting my shares in half. My lesson learned is that I can't time MM. Now I am in for the long haul and hope I have the resolve to add on the dips of 25%, rather than selling. My money is good with TSLA, even if SP goes nowhere from here. After all, I want to be involved with helping change the World.

I am normally very good about not trying to time the market. However, after reading in this forum I got so excited thinking we were in the middle of a short squeeze. I went ahead and sold one fund to buy more tesla stock. Instead of waiting till Monday for the money to clear, I actually called the broker and got them to process it Friday (20% of my net worth) right at the peak of $375 only to have it drop by $20 per share three hours later.

I really learned my lesson. Normally I would dollar average in over a few days if making a new investment. Back to my old habits. Definitely in for the long run at 50% of my net worth.

 

[Reciprocity]

I am normally very good about not trying to time the market. However, after reading in this forum I got so excited thinking we were in the middle of a short squeeze. I went ahead and sold one fund to buy more tesla stock. Instead of waiting till Monday for the money to clear, I actually called the broker and got them to process it Friday (20% of my net worth) right at the peak of $375 only to have it drop by $20 per share three hours later.

I really learned my lesson. Normally I would dollar average in over a few days if making a new investment. Back to my old habits. Definitely in for the long run at 50% of my net worth.

Tons of opportunities to buy this stock on dips. Anything even close to negative is magnified and then the stock slowly but steadily speeds up like a freight train until it gets up to nearly dangerous speeds where any hint of negativity can also it down again. It's never just going to go straight up, even a squeeze will have some opportunities has it whips back and forth. I have only been in since about $180 and I'm never selling a share. I'll probably add 10% on dips where I can. Last n but at $306 a couple of weeks ago. Crazy ride.

Edit: another thought.. it can be good to convert any ira funds to Roth on dips as well. Could save a ton of money in 20-30 years when you retire. Best to do it before it's a 1000% up.

Edit2: another thought.. when you do convert from ira to Roth you will have to pay tax but no penalty. Time this with your model S3X purchase and you can offset the extra income. Or better yet, solar and 2 cars. The future tax savings could be worth 100 times what you will pay in tax today.

 

[22522]

$306?

 

[Reciprocity]

$306?

Sorry, Last bought at 306.. a couple of weeks ago.

 

[kbM3]

Tons of opportunities to buy this stock on dips. Anything even close to negative is magnified and then the stock slowly but steadily speeds up like a freight train until it gets up to nearly dangerous speeds where any hint of negativity can also it down again. It's never just going to go straight up, even a squeeze will have some opportunities has it whips back and forth. I have only been in since about $180 and I'm never selling a share. I'll probably add 10% on dips where I can. Last night at $306.

Edit: another thought.. it can be good to convert any ira funds to Roth on dips as well. Could save a ton of money in 20-30 years when you retire. Best to do it before it's a 1000% up.

Let's go back in time to December and the stock had just risen to $202.00. You decide to wait for a dip. The next dip happens in March where it dips to 243. If you buy at that point, you have just lost $40.00 per share from not buying in back in December.

I think if you are older and have a high net worth and there is a Tesla-like opportunity you just go "all in" immediately at whatever amount you are comfortable with and hold for a longish period.

If you are young and still contributing it seems wisest to just dollar-cost average in as you go.

 

[22522]

If you are young and still contributing it seems wisest to just dollar-cost average in as you go.

Vanguard finally has a stop buy that is supposed to let you buy on the way up.

The stock is at $357, but was at $376 on Friday. Some say the stock will go up and down sideways until it crosses $376.

So that get in mechanism triggered at $376 will get you more shares if it climbs. At least that is the theory.

I am trying it, but I don't know of any better place to use the money than Tesla, so it is sort of stupid. But it does let you hold gains to put in if there is a big dip.

As you can see, I don't really know what I am doing,.. besides making mistakes.

 

[jhm]

I don't mean to brag, but I got all out at 306 and sat on the sidelines for three weeks, thinking there would be a downturn. Yesterday I let my emotions get the best of me and went all back in at 375. For some reason this makes me laugh... and almost cry at the same time. I think I need a better strategy

Don't sell.

Tesla will grow fast enough and long enough that you don't need to trade in and out to get an awesome return. Just hold on tight and accumulate more when everyone else is bailing out on the stock.

 

[ggies07]

.

Ray Dalio, owner of the largest hedge fund in the world, worth more than 18 billion dollars, one of the few investors who actually made money in 2008.

This was great thanks! I love his example on how he failed and what he learned - Instead of "I know" it's "how do I know". I think most of us on here who a long-longs are in the "how do I know" camp because we are constantly researching on the company and the industry.....I've been doing it since 2012. So the shorts can come on here and post what they want, but we know.

 

[jhm]

There's another reason for $100Bil by the end of year prediction (or speculation):

While I was analyzing a bunch of growth companies a few weeks ago, I found an interesting pattern in valuation.

If you take T-12 operating cash-flow and multiply with T-12 revenue growth it is approximately same as the company's market cap.

This was true for many companies in a row, especially high growth companies. But again, this is true under the current (last several quarters) of market environment where S&P 500 is kind of fully valued and tech companies are "hot". So if the overall market environment changes, who knows the equation may not hold true.

In case of Tesla, market has been generally forward looking. So my thinking is even if Tesla doesn't achieve scores on T-12 metrics, if it merely reaches them on a run-rate basis, I think market will give it the appropriate market cap.

So what do we need for $100 Bil valuation:
- We know that revenue has been growing and will continue to grow approximately 50%, it maybe lumpy here and there but overall 50% doesn't seem to be a stretch.
- Then all we need is 2Bil annual operating cashflow because 50 * 2 = 100. If M3 ramp goes well and Tesla is on course to achieve 5K/week production rate in Q4, on a run rate basis, I think 2Bil rate is very achievable.

Note: I'm specifically talking about operating-cashflow, not net-cashflow.

If Mr.Market is not satisfied with run rates and wants actual proof in T12 metrics, then we may have to wait a bit. So anytime from end of 17 to end of 18, we should certainly see 100Bil market cap. But again, barring any macro headwinds and force majeure events.

Another way to think about this. If Tesla achieves 2Bil operating cashflow on a run rate basis by the end of year, but mr.market doesn't give the 100Bil valuation then it would be a spectacular buying opportunity. Just have to load up, sit back and wait. So in a twisted way if market is really efficient it will be satisfied with run rates and give the valuation. Especially in Tesla's case because the trajectory is *very* visible.

This is curious. What is the intuition behind this? Why multiply growth times 100? Why not another constant?

Thanks.