2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[GoTslaGo]

She thinks that there's going to be some kind of macro shock.

She also thinks that a brief pop introduction the $380's is likely.

We also have the SP at $390 in December and rising to about $450 in August 2018.

I decided to start asking her opinions after I read the account of Jesse Livermore trading basesbon his intuition. Sometimes she has been spectacularly right on other topics and sometimes she has been wrong. So far she was off by about 3-4 days on her call of ~$365 when we sold all of our calls. I'm kind of curious how she is going to do. I decided to post this here so that everyone has the opportunity to either make fun of me or hopefully to jump on the bandwagon.

Maybe consider TVIX?

Thanks to @AlMc and @Lump

 

[Krugerrand]

I quit my MD job last year to drive an Uber in Vegas
Love it especially driving customers from McCarran to the strip over weekends
The tips are great and making $25 an hour has always been my long term career goal

I actually took an Uber to and from McCarran not too long ago. Actually loved the experience. You get to meet some of the most interesting people with equally interesting stories about other fares they've had. (And I tipped well.)

 

[Dennisj00]

Seat of the pants?

 

[kenliles]

She thinks that there's going to be some kind of macro shock.
[ ]
I decided to post this here to give everyone the opportunity to either make fun of me or hopefully to jump on the bandwagon.

May or may not happen--
but after witnessing current macro, anyone making fun of this should be made fun of themselves...
I'm not trading the bandwagon, but do see the potential, instead choosing to hold long through and increase on macro pullbacks, with a 5 year outlook. But that's a personal preference.

Without unnecessary delineation, that we all know, macro leadership and conditions are clearly new territory and deserve all intuitive postings here.
Frankly those may deserve more attentiveness than historic data--
Properly contextualized - sharing of these is important--
IMO

 

[AlMc]

Maybe consider TVIX?

Thanks to @AlMc and @Lump

I can hopefully speak for @Lump as well. NOT Advice.

TVIX is a highly volatile fund. In the last week it went up close to 40% one day and down close to 30% another. I do hold some but it represents about 0.25% of my holdings in TDAmer accounts

 

[Ameliorate]

Maybe consider TVIX?

Thanks to @AlMc and @Lump

I decided to go with some TZA leaps instead as a security measure. 3x inverse ETF of Russel 2000.

Gleaned from the General Macroeconomic Thread that in a relatively neutral/slow economic conditions the huge corporations will probably perform the best, while it's stressful on the smaller companies.
A general macro downturn should effect the Russel 2000 just as much.
You can see this past month TZA has kept a significant chunk of it's gains 15 -> 17.30 whereas TVIX went from 15.5 to 16.9
That said, if you're in shares, and trading, TVIX spiked higher to 24.24 vs TZA at 17.9.

Considering selling some and buying F puts.
Just some alternative ideas.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Thanks for the advice. Options are trickier for us, we actually have to pay for them, whereas straight up shares I do not pay commissions (I'm sure I pay in other ways).

What I did notice about the TVIX is that it's 52 week low is in the 15 range, and 52 week high is 280+. Current SP around 16's. Just a sense of where it's current price action is at. Obviously it can go lower, but if history is a guide...

It would be more of a hedge with some extra funds that we just made available with various trades.

I never discount intuition (thanks @MitchJi for posting about your wife's gut feeling).

I can hopefully speak for @Lump as well. NOT Advice.

TVIX is a highly volatile fund. In the last week it went up close to 40% one day and down close to 30% another. I do hold some but it represents about 0.25% of my holdings in TDAmer accounts

I decided to go with some TZA leaps instead as a security measure. 3x inverse ETF of Russel 2000.

Gleaned from the General Macroeconomic Thread that in a relatively neutral/slow economic conditions the huge corporations will probably perform the best, while it's stressful on the smaller companies.
A general macro downturn should effect the Russel 2000 just as much.
You can see this past month TZA has kept a significant chunk of it's gains 15 -> 17.30 whereas TVIX went from 15.5 to 16.9
That said, if you're in shares, and trading, TVIX spiked higher to 24.24 vs TZA at 17.9.

Considering selling some and buying F puts.
Just some alternative ideas.

 

[MitchJi]

one time when he was on vacation Jesse Livermore went into a brokerage with a friend and decided based on nothing but his feelings to short Union Pacific. On the spot he sold 30k shares short. About a couple of weeks later it plummeted on the news of the San Francisco earthquake and Jesse made over 100k which was quite a bit in 1906!

Nothing like profiting off the misery of others!

Why do you think that makes any sense? He didn't know about the San Francisco earthquake when he sold the Union Pacific short.

How did he do anything wrong or unethical?

What do you advocate if we happen to do something similar? Rhetorical question, we'll keep the profits, probably donate a significant portion to the relief effort.


He returned to New York with what he termed a “fair-sized roll.” Then, on April 16, 1906, he was hit by a premonition. With no warning, he yielded to a strange urge to sell short a thousand shares of Union Pacific railroad—an urge even he admitted he didn’t understand. Two days later, the San Francisco Earthquake hit. Union Pacific was decimated; he’d made $250,000 literally overnight.

 

[AlMc]

Thanks for the advice. Options are trickier for us, we actually have to pay for them, whereas straight up shares I do not pay commissions (I'm sure I pay in other ways).

What I did notice about the TVIX is that it's 52 week low is in the 15 range, and 52 week high is 280+. Current SP around 16's. Just a sense of where it's current price action is at. Obviously it can go lower, but if history is a guide...

It would be more of a hedge with some extra funds that we just made available with various trades.

I never discount intuition (thanks @MitchJi for posting about your wife's gut feeling).

This is the reason I bought (and will holdout) as a hedge. I will add a little more with any sub $16 dip.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I quit my MD job last year to drive an Uber in Vegas
Love it especially driving customers from McCarran to the strip over weekends

I actually took an Uber to and from McCarran not too long ago. Actually loved the experience. You get to meet some of the most interesting people with equally interesting stories about other fares they've had. (And I tipped well.)

Lol yes!

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Thanks for the advice. Options are trickier for us, we actually have to pay for them, whereas straight up shares I do not pay commissions (I'm sure I pay in other ways).

What I did notice about the TVIX is that it's 52 week low is in the 15 range, and 52 week high is 280+. Current SP around 16's. Just a sense of where it's current price action is at. Obviously it can go lower, but if history is a guide...

It would be more of a hedge with some extra funds that we just made available with various trades.

I never discount intuition (thanks @MitchJi for posting about your wife's gut feeling).

For consideration: TVIX constantly loses value on average, that's why max (1 year) is 280. If you go back 5 years, you will see that it was 437,500 (not a joke) pre-all-reverse-splits.
This is nature of fund and I believe it's because of the cost of complex set of instruments to enable short term exposure to 2xVIX
Holding TVIX for more than a week or two is probably not the prudent tactic.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

For consideration: TVIX constantly loses value on average, that's why max (1 year) is 280. If you go back 5 years, you will see that it was 437,500 (not a joke) pre-all-reverse-splits.
This is nature of fund and I believe it's because of the cost of complex set of instruments to enable short term exposure to 2xVIX
Holding TVIX for more than a week or two is probably not the prudent tactic.

In theory good idea to short, in practice horrendous. Any VIX spike will see your TVIX short illiquid, called in and you will be bought in at multiples of what u sold. At least that's what I remember reading (if possible to short at all).

 

[TrendTrader007]

P

I think the shorts have mostly given up in the near term outside of the mandatory morning dips, which looks a lot like algos trading self-perpetuating a common pattern now. For the most part, TSLA isn't reacting much to macros lately. Following sure, but the typical magnitude of a reaction just isn't there. My hunch is there's someone(s) carefully accumulating as much as they can before pushing it higher. It's quite reminiscent of what happened before breaking out into the $300's:
View attachment 241976

Late March - volume dropped off and traded flat for 4 days (while upper BB rose) before a monster gap-n-go day on April 3rd.

Little different case now, but I'd argue similar. Secondary offering, sideways to up stock, ending with low volume flat days before big gap-n-go. This time, debt offering, sideways to slightly up stock, currently low volume flat days. Upper BB rising, giving room for a pop.
Both cases here involve an event that provides substantial financial de-risking for Tesla.

View attachment 241977


Not an advice, but I'm currently positioned for a pop to the 380's, with any luck, within the next week.

Totally agree I 110% believe that $383 to $400 over the next few weeks is a given
See the charts below
This sucker wants to explode higher anytime now
Tomorrow or next week ? No idea but sooner than I suspect
TSLA will be No good for shorts
I don't want it to run up fast and loose cause my extra cash ain't available for another 6 weeks but I can't deny what my naked eyes see plain as sunlight on the charts on all timeframes
The beast is about to be unleashed on unsuspecting shorts and don't blame me if it takes off in Ludicrous mode
Don't say I didn't warn you

 

[TrendTrader007]

See the tights on daily
This is the calm before the storm

When it comes to Friday
I always earn

 

[TrendTrader007]

Forming a cup on weekly
Ready to race up the bollinger
They kiss on the ring
I carry the crown
Nothing nothing could break me down

 

[TrendTrader007]

Super awesome monthly
I got gas in the tank
I got nothing in the bank
I got news for you baby

 

[TrendTrader007]

Freaking cup on quarterly
What more do ya want
Who's the man

 

[Waiting4M3]

View attachment 242015 Forming a cup on weekly
Ready to race up the bollinger
They kiss on the ring
I carry the crown
Nothing nothing could break me down

uh oh, poetry, time to sell

 

[TrendTrader007]

So ya all think this juggernaut is gonna quit at 69% year end?
No way
This sucker is gonna blow the daylights out of shorts' bearish bets
I know the score like the back of my hand
Ban me

 

[Waiting4M3]

Our crystal ball (my wife's intuition) has rye SP varying between about $312 in early September, rising to about $320 in early November.

Definitely not an advice!

She thinks that there's going to be some kind of macro shock.

She also thinks that a brief pop introduction the $380's is likely.

We also have the SP at $390 in December and rising to about $450 in August 2018.

.........

Not an advice!

So we can see $312 in Sep, $320 in early Nov, and then $390 in Dec? and throw in $380 somewhere in there? do you mean we could see $380 before going down to $312? If that happens it will be quite a ride.