2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Richgoogol]

Someone is trying to pull it down below 347.46 (Friday's close) every time SP surpasses that

 

[T3slaTulips]

Someone is trying to pull it down below 347.46 (Friday's close) every time SP surpasses that

I think they must have run out of ammo.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Someone is trying to pull it down below 347.46 (Friday's close) every time SP surpasses that

No worry. It will close above that today

 

[GoTslaGo]

Somebody mentioned in this or the other thread that selling of stock awarded for the Model 3 production milestone might have contributed to the recent SP weakness. Given the recent low volumes, it seems plausible it was a factor. And with today's rally on low volume, it would suggest that the milestone-related sales might be through.

This is where the charts are useful, IMHO. Last week's pattern was very similarly to the crashing prices in June/July (based on the candles). Main difference was the volume. IIRC there was almost a 3-4x volume difference which goes with the convertible bonds being sold off (1.2 million shares we'd find out later from the 10Q) vs approx 250k being awarded for the Model 3.

Agree, that those are likely finished being sold (and sellers likely used the proceeds to pocket a pretty Model 3 for them and theirs...). Aside from macros, hopeful that the SP will be freed up at this point.

 

[bdy0627]

Someone is trying to pull it down below 347.46 (Friday's close) every time SP surpasses that

That's also the 50 MA

 

[bdy0627]

This is really bullish today. I hate to admit but I am on a streak of making exactly the wrong moves short term. There have been times where I was really in sync with the stock moves (luck) but not now. It has literally gotten to the point where I should do exactly the opposite of what I think I should do. Even better, I should step away from the computer for a few days at least! I seem to do best the less trading I do and I suspect that's probably a pretty common experience. Anyway, nice to see a big green candle again.

 

[Reciprocity]

This is really bullish today. I hate to admit but I am on a streak of making exactly the wrong moves short term. There have been times where I was really in sync with the stock moves (luck) but not now. It has literally gotten to the point where I should do exactly the opposite of what I think I should do. Even better, I should step away from the computer for a few days at least! I seem to do best the less trading I do and I suspect that's probably a pretty common experience. Anyway, nice to see a big green candle again.

Thats why I dont make short term moves. I get sicker missing these updates then I do have joy when I make some lucky or skilled guess. Best thing is to try to buy the dips and never sell. There is always another dip and the stock always goes up. This will probably be a trend for many a decade.

 

[jbcarioca]

Thats why I dont make short term moves. I get sicker missing these updates then I do have joy when I make some lucky or skilled guess. Best thing is to try to buy the dips and never sell. There is always another dip and the stock always goes up. This will probably be a trend for many a decade.

Or for all time... I try to follow your advice. I still remember Malcolm Forbes from five decades ago or so "you won't lose if you don't sell". As usual there are exceptions.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What's the reason for this pop?

THE POETRY!

 

[bdy0627]

Or for all time... I try to follow your advice. I still remember Malcolm Forbes from five decades ago or so "you won't lose if you don't sell". As usual there are exceptions.

OTM LEAPs make it very hard not to sell when the stock goes down a good chunk though, especially when they are becoming bigger and bigger losers. At some point, you just have to stop the bleeding from a bad entry point. Options are starting to feel like wine, I keep trying not to overdue it but then wake up realizing I overdid it again. I thought TSLA was going to breakout a couple of weeks ago when it was near $370 and added leverage. Turns out, that wasn't a good entry point. Had I done DITM LEAPs or even ITM LEAPs, the carnage wouldn't have been so bad. But, the OTM LEAPs really dropped hard.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is really bullish today. I hate to admit but I am on a streak of making exactly the wrong moves short term. There have been times where I was really in sync with the stock moves (luck) but not now. It has literally gotten to the point where I should do exactly the opposite of what I think I should do. Even better, I should step away from the computer for a few days at least! I seem to do best the less trading I do and I suspect that's probably a pretty common experience. Anyway, nice to see a big green candle again.

Yes this is a very very common experience. Think Max Pain minute by minute.

This is why I don't even log into the trading platform on most days.

 

[bdy0627]

If this uptrend persists, I'm guessing morning dips will likely be the best time to add shares for those who want to.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As fun as the betting has been, I have some comment regarding your expectation of "shooting up to the heavens", I think we still have lots of pre-flight checks to do, people with high expectations will inevitably get impatient and will provide me with my entry point.

I won't be one of those people
as my leverage is reasonable
so any margin calls are treatable.

 

[SpaceCash]

I have my fingers crossed for my 363 lotto weeklies paying off big. Bought 4 of them for .20 when SP was 334 on Monday. Could be the best 80 bucks plus commish I ever spent if this trend keeps up. Looking to power hour for a decisive boost to 352+

 

[jhm]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Payments to those of our suppliers (43:21). And we were also able to make the car a lot faster. So obviously, the Nirvana is that we can make the car and get paid for the car before we have to pay our suppliers, which then the faster you grow, the faster your cash position grows. Obviously, that's like the – that's the promised land right there. And that's how – it's what we've aimed for. And I think we'll achieve that maybe not immediately but pretty quickly.

Imagine if Tesla had a logistic network of autonomous Semi trucks that was capable of delivering a new car virtually anywhere in the lower 48 within 72 hours of being produced at Fremont. I think AI can optimize it in real-time. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk has day dreams about such things.

 

[LoveTSLA]

No worry. It will close above that today

Looks it will close above 350 today. Better than what I predicted. That will make me very happy.

 

[koolkool]

Looks it will close above 350 today. Better than what I predicted. That will make me very happy.

y u jinx it?

 

[Richgoogol]

Ok nobody says anything about the SP from now until close...

 

[jhm]

Obviously, Baron follows my BFPT posts.

I still think below $350 is good price to accumulate for long-term investors.

$340 is a great price for accumulation. I was not expecting it to go this low, but it can pay to be opportunistic.

These where based on 12-month BFPT at about 5th percentile level, which was $342. The idea is to accumulate at a level for which there is very little downside risk holding for a year or more. The market would have to deeply sour on Tesla to be below this level a year from now. Of course, that could always happen, but if you buy at or below that level of bitter sentiment, it's much easier to ride out.

Oh, well, it's going above $350 now. Better luck next time.

 

[Curt Renz]

Someone is trying to pull it down below 347.46 (Friday's close) every time SP surpasses that

That's also the 50 MA

Indeed, and now the share price has poked above the 50-day SMA and continues in power mode. Somebody must know something to account for TSLA being so strong today, with no significant Tesla news while the overall market is weak. Often this initially can only be detected through technical analysis with the underlying facts coming out later.