2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

yeah... we'd be at like $1000 right now... highest valued auto... but it's just so undervalued right now because the over hyped risk man... guaranteed 100% 1m M3s delivered in 2018... Alien Dreadnaught... yeah... Tesla's a tech company... not a stupid Auto company... Apple did it... NFLX did it... AMZN... and TSLA... they're in Silicon Valley... and Tesla is like 8 companies in one... and all 8 are going to go exponential starting in 2018.. Q1 on Feb 2, 2018 at 3:07:52 PM PDT... and the stock should easily go to $3523.12... easily... that's my short term target... $3523.12... that's based on my DCF with 1000% growth for 50 years... you should try using a DCF... it'll finally open your eyes... then you'll finally see why Tesla ***IS*** Apple/NFLX/AMZN combined... now that we've disrupted the auto industry in that area just to the right of SF... and down a little bit... that area right there... has been disrupted... we're going to move on to the entire energy sector... auto is already dead... Tesla already stole all their profits in 2025... they already did it... just look at your DCF... there's no way they can have profits because Tesla already sold more cars than people in 2025... it's over man... it's just over... they're going to make the S&P 1... and TSLA will be the only company on it... all humans will work for Tesla by 2030... Tesla will have $30T in revenue in 2030... just look at your DCF.

Thank you for the Monday morning laugh

 

[vgrinshpun]

As an update, TSLA continues to be constrained by the symmetrical triangle which I outlined about two weeks ago. The salient points:

• the pattern seem to be very well defined at this point, with TSLA occasionally loosely following NASDAQ, but the constraints of the triangle seem to take precedence over the influence of NASDAQ (brown line)
• last two local TSLA tops and troughs (the second seem to be forming now) are being drawn closer to the top of the triangle
• SMA(5) is still above SMA(10), but both are changing from ascending to horizontal slope

I am going to be watching SP closely for the rest of this week and if TSLA hits bottom of the triangle, around $330 this week, will consider switching some of my shares to the Jan 2019 LEAPS, and possibly try to play shorter term as well. It seems that TSLA really needs a catalyst to break out of the triangle, and Tesla Semi event and potential leaks preceding it could have a perfect timing. SP target for this break out, which could play out over some time, is around $430.

View attachment 246018

To update the symmetrical triangle setup which I outlined about three weeks ago, with a neutral to positive macro outlook and news from China on effort of phasing out ICE vehicles, TSLA seem to be poised to attempt a break-out this week. Details on Model 3 ramp-up progress and unticipated news on Semi event would help as well. My **fantasy** Semi announcement would involve a Semi with a dozen or so charged powerpacks on board of the trailer in tow, faciliatating charging at a Florida SC in the area without power, but I digress...

The break-out from the triangle would happen around $355-356, which would probably present a fierce resistance. If TSLA can clear this level, it has some room to run. The PT for the end of this run is around $80 above the break-out point, i.e. $435.

 

[AlMc]

yeah... we'd be at like $1000 right now... highest valued auto... but it's just so undervalued right now because the over hyped risk man... guaranteed 100% 1m M3s delivered in 2018... Alien Dreadnaught... yeah... Tesla's a tech company... not a stupid Auto company... Apple did it... NFLX did it... AMZN... and TSLA... they're in Silicon Valley... and Tesla is like 8 companies in one... and all 8 are going to go exponential starting in 2018.. Q1 on Feb 2, 2018 at 3:07:52 PM PDT... and the stock should easily go to $3523.12... easily... that's my short term target... $3523.12... that's based on my DCF with 1000% growth for 50 years... you should try using a DCF... it'll finally open your eyes... then you'll finally see why Tesla ***IS*** Apple/NFLX/AMZN combined... now that we've disrupted the auto industry in that area just to the right of SF... and down a little bit... that area right there... has been disrupted... we're going to move on to the entire energy sector... auto is already dead... Tesla already stole all their profits in 2025... they already did it... just look at your DCF... there's no way they can have profits because Tesla already sold more cars than people in 2025... it's over man... it's just over... they're going to make the S&P 1... and TSLA will be the only company on it... all humans will work for Tesla by 2030... Tesla will have $30T in revenue in 2030... just look at your DCF.

Wow, A little overcaffinated this AM?

My coffee intake DCF limits me to one AM cup and one PM cup.

Not advice

 

[myusername]

Listen to Elon's commentary from the last earnings call. He said there was a 0% chance they wouldn't hit targets in 2018. So if things are slow out of the gate - rest assured the s curve will play out as appropriate. Once production hits its stride - shorts don't have much of a leg to stand on so use this time wisely.

No... he didn't say that... what he said was:

"But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year."

"zero concern" != "zero chance"

you right now have zero concern... because you think Elon said zero chance.

it's important that we watch the details in the dialog... because next year at this time longs will be saying exactly what I'm saying right now... just like last year when longs were all saying:

Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017

oh... but remember... he didn't say that.

 

[DurandalAI]

I think they are adjusting the mix with plans to max deliver in the tax credit window. There is a logistics chain that has to be controlled. If there are any squeaks and rattles, those have to come out of the chain as well.

Sorting is really important and deliberate.

A way to think about it is:

1) Adjustment takes time.
2) You cannot tolerate it in a manufacturing process.
3) All adjustment is happening now.

I agree, I'd rather it be slower on the first 3 months than a bump and then a slower climb after that. They need to make sure that when they're pumping out those cars, it's at full throttle. Warming up for the sprint, followed by a marathon.

 

[Irishjugg]

Wow, A little overcaffinated this AM?

My coffee intake DCF limits me to one AM cup and one PM cup.

Not advice

Unsustainable growth with too many coming competitors.

AIMc will be drinking decaf by winter, mark my words. I'm short all the way down on this fraud of a caffeine intake plan.

 

[vgrinshpun]

No... he didn't say that... what he said was:

"But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year."

"zero concern" != "zero chance"

you right now have zero concern... because you think Elon said zero chance.

it's important that we watch the details in the dialog... because next year at this time longs will be saying exactly what I'm saying right now... just like last year when longs were all saying:

Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017

oh... but remember... he didn't say that.

We do remember - next stop is $270.

 

[myusername]

No... he didn't say that... what he said was:

"But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year."

"zero concern" != "zero chance"

you right now have zero concern... because you think Elon said zero chance.

it's important that we watch the details in the dialog... because next year at this time longs will be saying exactly what I'm saying right now... just like last year when longs were all saying:

Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017

oh... but remember... he didn't say that.

god... just look at that article:

"He then provided a production target, which is way beyond what we’d expected to hear:

[Elon] “So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

Up to 200,000 Model 3 produced by the end of 2017! That figure seems unbelievable, but with Musk at the helm anything is possible."

this was on Insideevs... now look at where we're at... a "Release" followed by a debt raise... followed by silence... followed by a $350 stock for absolutely no reason.

right now Tesla is behind on 2017 expectations by 200k vehicles... the whole 200k in 2017... 500k in 2018... 1m in 2020... remember that crap?... it's ALREADY GONE... and you guys are like "it's gunna go exponential man".

just too funny to watch.

 

[Reciprocity]

yeah... we'd be at like $1000 right now... highest valued auto... but it's just so undervalued right now because the over hyped risk man... guaranteed 100% 1m M3s delivered in 2018... Alien Dreadnaught... yeah... Tesla's a tech company... not a stupid Auto company... Apple did it... NFLX did it... AMZN... and TSLA... they're in Silicon Valley... and Tesla is like 8 companies in one... and all 8 are going to go exponential starting in 2018.. Q1 on Feb 2, 2018 at 3:07:52 PM PDT... and the stock should easily go to $3523.12... easily... that's my short term target... $3523.12... that's based on my DCF with 1000% growth for 50 years... you should try using a DCF... it'll finally open your eyes... then you'll finally see why Tesla ***IS*** Apple/NFLX/AMZN combined... now that we've disrupted the auto industry in that area just to the right of SF... and down a little bit... that area right there... has been disrupted... we're going to move on to the entire energy sector... auto is already dead... Tesla already stole all their profits in 2025... they already did it... just look at your DCF... there's no way they can have profits because Tesla already sold more cars than people in 2025... it's over man... it's just over... they're going to make the S&P 1... and TSLA will be the only company on it... all humans will work for Tesla by 2030... Tesla will have $30T in revenue in 2030... just look at your DCF.

Your bitter tears taste to good. 30T might be a stretch, but I could see a 1T in gross revs.

 

[Reciprocity]

god... just look at that article:

"He then provided a production target, which is way beyond what we’d expected to hear:

[Elon] “So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

Up to 200,000 Model 3 produced by the end of 2017! That figure seems unbelievable, but with Musk at the helm anything is possible."

this was on Insideevs... now look at where we're at... a "Release" followed by a debt raise... followed by silence... followed by a $350 stock for absolutely no reason.

right now Tesla is behind on 2017 expectations by 200k vehicles... the whole 200k in 2017... 500k in 2018... 1m in 2020... remember that crap?... it's ALREADY GONE... and you guys are like "it's gunna go exponential man".

just too funny to watch.

Minutiae again. It is completely irrelevant. However, the inevitable is relevant and looks something like 130K S/3/X this year and 500K next year, with a backlog of 500k not dissipating for at least 2 years from today, maybe in time for Model Y to do some osborning.

It is irrelevant because the current stock prices is based on risk adjusted future cash flows. The closer we get to 2018 without a major issue, the closer we get to the inevitable massive cash flows. All bear arguments will be snuffed out, though im sure you will find some new inane argument.

 

[geneclean55]

Back to respectable pre-market volumes. Haven't seen that in a while.

 

[myusername]

Your bitter tears taste to good. 30T might be a stretch, but I could see a 1T in gross revs.

1T?... you're really wimping out here... unless you mean by 2020... my DCF shows $10B 2017... $100B 2018... $1T 2019... $10T 2020... and $30T by 2030... because it has a ring to it... 30T by 2030... like S3XY... that's cool right?

for the SP here's what I expect to see going forward:

2 PM today: $600
Dec $2000

then I expect it to fall back a bit... probably by $87... maybe $87.52... then... when everyone finally realizes that Tesla is Apple... then:

Feb 2, 2018: $3523.12
Jun 2018: $10,000

then in 2020 China will be renamed to Tesla and the SP will be:

Jan 1, 2020: $82,323,001.43 with a market cap of $14,317,043B... that's 14 MILLION BILLION!... even if they get half that... it'll still be a lot of BILLION

(see that... just like you're 1T talk... even half that is a bunch of BILLION... but that's half as easy... so it must be possible if 1T is possible!)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

1T?... you're really wimping out here... unless you mean by 2020... my DCF shows $10B 2017... $100B 2018... $1T 2019... $10T 2020... and $30T by 2030... because it has a ring to it... 30T by 2030... like S3XY... that's cool right?

for the SP here's what I expect to see going forward:

2 PM today: $600
Dec $2000

then I expect it to fall back a bit... probably by $87... maybe $87.52... then... when everyone finally realizes that Tesla is Apple... then:

Feb 2, 2018: $3523.12
Jun 2018: $10,000

then in 2020 China will be renamed to Tesla and the SP will be:

Jan 1, 2020: $82,323,001.43 with a market cap of $14,317,043B

Who was it that said @myusername isn't as emotional as Mark Spiegel?

 

[myusername]

Who was it that said @myusername isn't as emotional as Mark Spiegel?

-- except I am not mark spiegel

watching you guys go off in a circle on this board is just too much sometimes.

 

[geneclean55]

Who was it that said @myusername isn't as emotional as Mark Spiegel?

Also, they both have the habit of responding to their own previous posts (tweets)

 

[myusername]

Also, they both have the habit of responding to their own previous posts (tweets)

man... you're like a detective!... an Internet Detective!... you find habits when someone does something once... you're the Clairvoyant Internet Detective... CID... on Sundays at 6PM on CBS.

 

[D-egg-O]

Supercharging Cities

 

[D-egg-O]

Pre-market please hold.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Also, they both have the habit of responding to their own previous posts (tweets)

It's actually super easy spotting people's true identities. People just don't think about these things until you point out the similarities.

 

[racer26]

Listen to Elon's commentary from the last earnings call. He said there was a 0% chance they wouldn't hit targets in 2018. So if things are slow out of the gate - rest assured the s curve will play out as appropriate. Once production hits its stride - shorts don't have much of a leg to stand on so use this time wisely.

Criticize Elon all you want for being over optimistic and having unachievable targets. He usually does deliver to >80% of the unrealistic target.

I have *never* heard Elon describe *anything* as something one should have zero concern about, and more importantly, on calls like that, when he makes some over-optimistic claim, Deepak or JB usually try to rein in that claim. This time they did not, instead choosing to double down on Elon's optimism. That's an extremely bullish sign to me.