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erthquake
Active Member
If my kids understood the stock market, they would have loved this post...I do!
erthquake
Active Member
Are you impugning I did something unethical before placing a buy order?
Who? Me? No! Never, oh kind and loving Moderator. Just PM me first before you do it next time
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO this mini rally confirms that when between late 2017 and mid 2018 Tesla reveals that the M3 production line is spitting out a M3 every 20-30 seconds that the SP is going to go ballistic!
OK, the longs are having a party and get drunk. Be very careful, this is a sign for trend reverse.
Umm. Your poetry just halted the latest uptrend. Please be careful. The shorts might start resorting to poetry to stay above water. That could result in some very bad poetry that wouldn't be nearly as eloquent as yours
So is that the reason why poetry is "banned" here... didn't know! Learn something new everyday.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
The poetry ban goes back to a moment when TSLA surged and a good portion of the regulars on this forum, led by yours truly, broke out in verse to celebrate. Even Curt was waxing poetically. Needless to say, the bottom fell out of the stock the next day. Haiku is reputed to be the most harmful. I have now chained myself to my desk and endeavor to produce daily charts as penance for my sin.
Moderator: this post is appropriate for this thread because a certain moderator just posted some verse with immediate negative reaction from the stock price. 'Tis dangerous ground we tread when the verse comes out. That said, I made a wager with a certain Nigel that Model 3 would begin production in 2017. He didn't believe me, and the loser must post verse speaking in praise of the winner. Please sell your short-term holdings prior to that event.
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TrendTrader007
Active Member
Okay cool! Point well taken
I figured it wouldn't hurt to know what else is working in the markets besides Tesla
I'm not really pumping BABA
I only have less than 1000 shares of BABA as opposed to over xxxxx Tesla not counting options
So BABA is chump change for me compared to TSLA
Apparently evidence of lowish volume is against this. (Though it looks like this was happening in January.)
We have evidence of a short-covering rally. I think that shorts are getting out ahead of earnings in case of a great earnings report. They may pile back in after earnings.
My family always looks for those -- buy-and-hold, file-and-forget stocks. My grandmother bought Standard Oil of New Jersey in the 1950s. We sold it (ExxonMobil by then) in 2008. I'm not sure Tesla will have THAT long a run, but here's hoping.
Lessse: I've bought TSLA, bought TSLA LEAP calls (both in-the-money and out-of-the-money), sold TSLA puts (both in-the-money and out-of-the-money), and after the merger announcement, bought SCTY, sold SCTY puts (both in-the-money and out-of-the-money), bought SCTY LEAP calls (out-of-the-money)... All bullish bets.
I've never sold a share and I've never made a bearish bet. I've made *neutral* bets (betting the stock will probably stay steady and maybe go up). But I would never dare to make a bearish move on TSLA. This month is why.
Agreed, I do love shorting hot companies into earnings. I shorted right at the bell at 117.30 and was able to cover immediately after the report (and predictable overreaction) under 110. I think it will end up green after this report - it was a good one - but algos and traders are pretty irrational under these circumstances.
See! I can make good trades once in a while too! Just ignore my 75% failure rate on short term bets,
To bring it back to TSLA, I think NVDA's earnings will provide a blueprint for Feb 22. TSLA has been running hard, just like NVDA (ignoring the actual size of moves, obviously NVDA has grown much more on a percentage basis lately). Even though it has amazing long-term potential in my view, I think technical traders and speculators will take TSLA down immediately after earnings, unless the report is STELLAR. Shorts of course feel TSLA is massively overvalued and will trade on this conviction no matter what the report says. Then, TSLA will regain its footing not long thereafter, assuming it's an OK report.
All a guess, obviously.
Long calls for $200 for March?
What would I do? Me, personally, I'd hang onto them and execute them in March, to add to my core holdings at an amazing cost basis and defer all taxation on gains into the distant future. But then I have the cash to execute the options I buy. If you don't have the capital to do that, you may not have that option.
In addition, you're in Norway and your tax system is totally different from the US. Here in the US, if you sell them now you pay higher tax rates than if you execute them and hold the stock for a year before selling. This may not be true in Norway, I dunno.
I agree -- but I'm not sure what would count as stellar. Since the average analyst's report is assuming TSLA will show a 77 cent/share loss, I figure anything which is in profit will count as "stellar". A loss of less than 77 cents will probably cause TSLA to go down after earnings, though.
I had some very nice gains on March 180 calls. I took some profits and rolled some forward to June 180 calls because it didn't cost hardly anything when I did it and it gives me the Q1 delivery numbers and Q1 ER. I always like a backup plan. Let's face it, Q4 ER is not a sure bet. The SP may go up afterwards, it may go down. I'd take some profits and roll some forward to June. That's what I did.
Latest official short interest number is out. As of the January 31st settlement date it was 34,350,221. Slightly down from mid-January and around where it was at the end of December 2016.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
The rise from $180 to $250 was not driven by short covering.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
The rise from $180 to $250 was not driven by short covering.
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