Just so I understand the charts better..., is this dip supposed to happen right before the start of the epic short squeeze?
Nope, gradual simmering boil upwards as the (short) frog cooks slowly...
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Nope, gradual simmering boil upwards as the (short) frog cooks slowly...
larmor
Active Member
Not necessarily so. While the long term 5 year expectation would say that this is entry point is fine, even entry at this point on the short term while difficult is not a problem-- as not able to predict when the market understands that tesla is modernizing the energy sector, a sector currently mired in oil and legacy technology- generators, turbines and legacy UPS systems.
Just so I understand the charts better..., is this dip supposed to happen right before the start of the epic short squeeze?
Ideally, yes. Real world, would require a miracle. A juicy miracle.
More dark pool selling, about 10k shares in the last 10 minutes, but this time they're just putting it out as a limit order and letting it get bought instead of dumping via market orders. Distinctly different character of selling - probably a different market participant than what caused this morning.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Maybe... it depends on how M3 ramp goes - speed and profitability. Note, however, that:
- Tesla is ramping up Model 3 more aggressively than Model S;
- Model 3 is not the only product as Model S was at the time; Model X and TE will do well in 2H17 (I think); and
- During the Model S ramp, TSLA started rising in Sep/Oct 2012, even though the squeeze happened six months later.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I actually sold my 4% over-leverage instead of buying. Few reasons:
- I wasn't sure $355 will provide support, although it should, and zdriver made cpl good points about weekly and monthly candles that could become self-fulfilling prophecies.
- I bought this stake at $346, didn't want to turn winners into losers, sold at $357
- Rumors are that highest VIN is in the 4xx range. These rumors have exactly the same flavor like rumors in the fall of 2015 during Model X ramp up. I didn't trust them in 2015, and being seriously leveraged(300%) almost got me obliterated.
Model 3 issues are not that serious now, and I was only 4% over 100%, not 200% over, but I've figured that I can handle not winning much easier than losing.
I'll buy after it goes up, or after it drops, or I won't buy at all
- I wasn't sure $355 will provide support, although it should, and zdriver made cpl good points about weekly and monthly candles that could become self-fulfilling prophecies.
- I bought this stake at $346, didn't want to turn winners into losers, sold at $357
- Rumors are that highest VIN is in the 4xx range. These rumors have exactly the same flavor like rumors in the fall of 2015 during Model X ramp up. I didn't trust them in 2015, and being seriously leveraged(300%) almost got me obliterated.
Model 3 issues are not that serious now, and I was only 4% over 100%, not 200% over, but I've figured that I can handle not winning much easier than losing.
I'll buy after it goes up, or after it drops, or I won't buy at all
Well, you're overleveraged. Probably a good choice.
I made my purchase when I realized that I had an account which had too large a percentage in *cash*.
Bought APPL and TSLA puts yesterday. Buying J19 300s today.
Brighter days ahead but unless we get an EM 'exciting tweet' (or two or three) looks like manipulation can go on until we get some news on Australian battery farm next week.
Just a quick, post and run. Good luck all.
Brighter days ahead but unless we get an EM 'exciting tweet' (or two or three) looks like manipulation can go on until we get some news on Australian battery farm next week.
Just a quick, post and run. Good luck all.
Ulmo
Active Member
Buying time. Got a bit.
I learned my lesson about not logging in during break at work; I missed the 390 and still have January options I would have gotten a nice gain if I sold during break time. My sell orders never hit. I'll hold them another month to try to get some raise. If I had, I could have bought much more today during the dip. Got a little stock during today's dip. Still much higher than my basis, even though I only recently got back in.
If @aimc is correct, there's a little coming with Australia, plus random news on Model 3. The next is end of October. During the pre-news run up I'll get rid of half my options, and the rest the next day, unless I find a better time.
Selling puts to get in a long stock position is probably a better idea. I should practice memorizing selling puts to see if I can execute during break since I barely have time to calculate now.
I learned my lesson about not logging in during break at work; I missed the 390 and still have January options I would have gotten a nice gain if I sold during break time. My sell orders never hit. I'll hold them another month to try to get some raise. If I had, I could have bought much more today during the dip. Got a little stock during today's dip. Still much higher than my basis, even though I only recently got back in.
If @aimc is correct, there's a little coming with Australia, plus random news on Model 3. The next is end of October. During the pre-news run up I'll get rid of half my options, and the rest the next day, unless I find a better time.
Selling puts to get in a long stock position is probably a better idea. I should practice memorizing selling puts to see if I can execute during break since I barely have time to calculate now.
Steve @myhedghog 229 minutes ago
Major retest for $TSLA - but had to buy this here...back in Sep 29 357.5s. Might add to l/t as well. Story hasn't changed..
Major retest for $TSLA - but had to buy this here...back in Sep 29 357.5s. Might add to l/t as well. Story hasn't changed..
Only bought 30 shares, but I'm now sitting on a nice, round number, and right around 200% again.
I don't know how people get margin called unless they're crazy leveraged like 350%+. By my calculation, I'm safe unless it falls under 280.
I don't know how people get margin called unless they're crazy leveraged like 350%+. By my calculation, I'm safe unless it falls under 280.
BTW, this is exactly the upper part of triangle that I drew several weeks ago and referred to today as well. The difference is that I drew my line using open/close daily prices rather than intraday highs. Based on this I still believe TSLA will test $350 either today or Monday. If TSLA finds support there, I will be buying.
Probably pinning at $355. Seeing more algo volume on upticks (vs downticks) in the past hour or so, possibly acting as resistance. Given the "excitement" today, there's probably a lot of traders watching TSLA today, and every time it peeks a bit higher, 357.50 and 360 calls probably gain just enough to scalp a bit here and there. (effective strategy actually, if you're bored some Friday afternoon) Someone sells calls, MM rehedge delta by selling the shares originally used to hedge those calls. In this case, they can just put them out on the offer and let buyers soak them up. Same goes for puts obviously, just with everything else flipped.
Yes! Just keep hammering it down guys..the more it gets hammered, the harder it snaps back
Cool chart. Lot's of similar looking patterns. I think Fidelity is finishing unloading the last of their convertibles (IIRC there were still around 50-60k sitting around based on the 10Q data). That's all profit at these prices. I suspect other moves are related to technicals, follow the leader type things... I'm with @vgrinshpun regarding testing 350 (my WAG 348). We shall see.
Amazed that your program sees sell limits vs market sells!
It can't per se, I'm more or less interpreting it that way. I don't know for sure how it works, (proprietary/closed source) but I can speculate it would be easy to see if someone dumped a 5000 share market sell order if the tape prints it, and after 5000 shares are removed from Level II, bid side with no change to offer/ask side.
The market pressure accumulator has been also trending down all day, which as I understand it, represents the underlying bids seen show up over time. Trending down implies bids being taken out on the way down. Sometimes it spikes up on a downtrend (not this week!), at which point I've had good luck BTFD'ing with near term calls for a bounce.
Not perfect obviously, but gives some insight to what might be happening, and as long as you take it with a grain of salt, it's a nice edge at times. Only problem I usually have with it is not sticking to my own rules, like don't buy more calls yesterday when market pressure was still trending down...
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