2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

There were 146k shares available for shorting at Fidelity at 8:04am, with 69k shares borrowed for shorting so far. Yesterday was a net covering day at Fidelity, with total net of 48k shares. Looking at the granular data, it appears that we are witnessing fairly orderly (for now) rotation: some short positions are being exited, while new ones are being added. If we assume that a more reasonable short interest would be about 5M shares less than what we have now, and that about half of short trading in TSLA is reflected in Fidelity data, it will take 50 days to get us there at this pace. Admittedly, these are pants of the seat assumptions, but I think they demonstrate in general terms how untenable this situation is. I think this could come to a violent resolution and Q4 ER, if financials are OK and 2017 guidance is positive, could be a trigger.

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA George Soros' theory of reflexivity in action as market perception changes favorably it impacts fundamentals positively which in turn fuels a rise in SP
Virtuous cycle

 

[TrendTrader007]

There were 146k shares available for shorting at Fidelity at 8:04am, with 69k shares borrowed for shorting so far. Yesterday was a net covering day at Fidelity, with total net of 48k shares. Looking at the granular data, it appears that we are witnessing fairly orderly (for now) rotation: some short positions are being exited, while new ones are being added. If we assume that a more reasonable short interest would be about 5M shares less and that about half of short trading in TSLA is reflected in Fidelity data, it will take 50 days to get us there at this pace. Admittedly, these are pants of the seat assumptions, but I think they demonstrate in general terms how untenable this situation is. I think this could come to a violent resolution and Q4 ER, if financials are OK and 2017 guidance is positive, could be a trigger.

View attachment 211881

None of my shares has been returned. Every single share is still lent out to shorts so I agree that a violent resolution to upside aka melt up is what we are looking at in the imminent future

 

[TrendTrader007]

As expected beautiful breakout on hourly TSLA chart
Shorts are in for a long frustrating ordeal in 2017
This stock will dip just enough to entice new shorts only to take them for a ride to $300 and beyond
(BABA no worries goes much higher from here)

 

[jbcarioca]

We also have Elon Musk forming a practical relationship with the new President Trump, who seems to appreciate all the new jobs SpaceX and Tesla are creating. That certainly is driving short term TSLA buying momentum. Once the meetings are over in a few hours the news should continue to drive TSLA up.

 

[Muaddid]

Once the meetings are over in a few hours the news should continue to drive TSLA up.

The meeting was yesterday... unless there was an other one today ?

 

[Rarity]

There's another one today for the Detroit 3. Was not aware that Tesla is involved in this one.

 

[1kEE]

I'm thinking of discontinuing attempts at day trading this (daily range is too narrow today) and just sit on the pile of shares from last week's experiments with it.... I have a feeling we will test 255 in a few days, be fun to see if that offers much resistance or not.

Edit: at this rate we may hit 255 today or tomorrow.

 

[1kEE]

There's another one today for the Detroit 3. Was not aware that Tesla is involved in this one.

Musk was there yesterday, I don't think today.

 

[kenliles]

There's another one today for the Detroit 3. Was not aware that Tesla is involved in this one.

"
"We want regulations, but we want real regulations that mean something," Trump said, calling environmentalism "out of control."

Auto executives went into the meeting hoping to gain some "clarity" on Trump's push for manufacturing to stay in the U.S. and his vow to impose hefty border taxes if companies move their plants to Mexico. American automakers say it would be a strain for all production to occur within the U.S., and some experts estimate Trump's proposed taxes could increase car prices, reducing consumers' options.
"

Trump tells automakers he'll impose 'regulations that mean something'

 

[geneclean55]

TSLA really riding that upper bollinger band on the daily. If we stay at this level, the downtrend resistance line around 250 is gone today.

 

[jbcarioca]

The meeting was yesterday... unless there was an other one today ?

Another one today, although Musk private meetings were not connected directly to the "big 3" meetings going on right now.
It is confusing, to say the least.

 

[racer26]

Anybody with better charting tools than me able to confirm if we've broken past the downtrend from ATH and Model 3 unveil?

 

[1kEE]

TSLA really riding that upper bollinger band on the daily. If we stay at this level, the downtrend resistance line around 250 is gone today.

I thought the downtrend resistance line was closer to 255... I have that number in mind as confirmation of that multi-year downtrend being broken.

 

[geneclean55]

Intermediate downtrend broken. Multiple year downtrend....not yet but getting close.

 

[whifang]

what do you all think share price will be come earnings in two weeks?

 

[geneclean55]

Nice bump there

Covering...or news?

 

[whifang]

Nice bump there

Covering...or news?

Tesla delivers first batch of vehicles and opens first Supercharger in Taiwan

 

[racer26]

what do you all think share price will be come earnings in two weeks?

No reason to believe ER is in two weeks. No reason not to, as well. Tesla IR hasn't set a date yet.

I believe we continue climbing at the ~$10/wk rate we've held since early December until ER. After ER? Depends. Could just continue, could have a big bump on TE news and Model 3 guidance, or could drop on low deliveries impacting financials. Hard to say.

 

[Hogfighter]

No reason to believe ER is in two weeks. No reason not to, as well. Tesla IR hasn't set a date yet.

I believe we continue climbing at the ~$10/wk rate we've held since early December until ER. After ER? Depends. Could just continue, could have a big bump on TE news and Model 3 guidance, or could drop on low deliveries impacting financials. Hard to say.

My hunch is that the 2017 forecast will weigh much heavier than Q4 financials. Clarity on TE will drive the stock price. My 2 cents