2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

No reason to believe ER is in two weeks. No reason not to, as well. Tesla IR hasn't set a date yet.

I believe we continue climbing at the ~$10/wk rate we've held since early December until ER. After ER? Depends. Could just continue, could have a big bump on TE news and Model 3 guidance, or could drop on low deliveries impacting financials. Hard to say.

I was thinking the ER is complicated by the merger, and it probably is. But Elon's time in washington is probably also delaying things. I bet he has an outsized role in the messaging in the ER letters.

 

[MitchJi]

Elon Musk Targets 'Full' Self-Driving Capability For Teslas Within 6 Months


Auto industry engineers, scientists and regulators are racing to work out all the details of how autonomous cars will function so that they can be ready to come to market by the early 2020s. Elon Musk, Tesla’s brash CEO, says his electric vehicles will gain that capability within just six months.

Musk made his pronouncement in Twitter comments late Monday, following previous remarks about the pace of upgrades to Tesla’s semi-automated Autopilot driving system.

In response to a question about the value of adding “Full Self Driving Capability” to the Palo Alto, California-based company’s products ahead of “regulatory approval,” Musk wrote: “…safety should improve significantly due to autonomy features, even if regs disallow no driver present.”

When a follow-on question asked how soon “full” self-driving, beyond Autopilot’s abilities, would arrive, Musk responded: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.”
<Snip>
Oops!

When I posted the excerpt above I didn't realize that it was based on an incorrect interpretation or of Elon's tweets.

 

[SunCatcher]

"
"We want regulations, but we want real regulations that mean something," Trump said, calling environmentalism "out of control."

Trump tells automakers he'll impose 'regulations that mean something'

AKA "Alternative Regulations".

 

[Gerardf]

Shorts are speculating this is related to Tesla.

German auto supplier SHW plunges on loss of electric car order | Daily Mail Online

Cancelled order of Euro 100M for pumps. Reason given is specifications.

"SHW, which assembles pumps and engine components as well as brake discs, said the customer - which it didn't name - had cancelled an order awarded last September, and asked SHW to stop preparations for production, originally due to start in the first half of this year.

SHW said the customer felt technical specifications for axle-drive pumps failed to meet its requirements."

Note: It is not confirmed it is related to Tesla.

Related : Elektromobilität: SHW erhält Großauftrag - SCOPE ONLINE

 

[MitchJi]

AKA "Alternative Regulations".

Delusional regulations.

 

[MitchJi]

6 billion was worldwide regulatory approval. Nothing saying that states or countries cant come sooner.

That tweet makes it look as if he's positive m3 will be autonomous at launch no? That can't just be my optimistic reading of it.

No.

It's your optimistic reading.

On a side note BABA up premarket on ER beat
I'll make money in both TSLA and BABA while naysayers fret on the sidelines.

I think you mean "shorts drown in the tsunami"?

 

[kenliles]

Delusional regulations.

BREAKING: Trump signs Keystone XL pipeline executive order

 

[vgrinshpun]

Down to zero shares available for shorting at Fidelity.

 

[MP3Mike]

@vgrinshpun It looks like you have a formula problem on the 1:11am line. (Which I assume is supposed to be 11:11am.)

 

[JRP3]

BREAKING: Trump signs Keystone XL pipeline executive order

Insane. Throwing money and resources into a dying technology.

 

[erthquake]

Shorts are speculating this is related to Tesla.

German auto supplier SHW plunges on loss of electric car order | Daily Mail Online

Cancelled order of Euro 100M for pumps. Reason given is specifications.

"SHW, which assembles pumps and engine components as well as brake discs, said the customer - which it didn't name - had cancelled an order awarded last September, and asked SHW to stop preparations for production, originally due to start in the first half of this year.

SHW said the customer felt technical specifications for axle-drive pumps failed to meet its requirements."

Note: It is not confirmed it is related to Tesla.

Related : Elektromobilität: SHW erhält Großauftrag - SCOPE ONLINE

Do Teslas even have axle-drive pumps?

 

[mejojo]

Insane. Throwing money and resources into a dying technology.

At least we know he's going to keep all their oil.....

 

[racer26]

Down to zero shares available for shorting at Fidelity.

View attachment 211889

Anybody have IB availability update? If both houses are out of ammo, whatever pressure there is from shorts has to evaporate, right?

 

[Hogfighter]

Every time I think about pulling more shares off the table, I wonder about those 35 million shares shorted. The vast majority of those are under water...how long are they going to stand in the way of the bulldozer? Of course, new shorts can enter at any time, but not without driving up the interest rate on those shares (which we haven't seen).

Guess I'll let the bulls run for a while...

 

[Lesifass]

Do Teslas even have axle-drive pumps?

That SCOPE ONLINE article makes it sound like it really is Tesla. "weltweit führenden Hersteller von vollelektrischen Fahrzeugen" => world's leading manufacturer of fully electric vehicles. Start of pumps production was planned for H1 2017, which fits well with Elon's "July 1" deadline.

I hope this is not HOERBIGER (falcon wing door issues) all over again. Otherwise Elon might start believing that German engineering sucks.

 

[Mike Smith]

Anybody have IB availability update? If both houses are out of ammo, whatever pressure there is from shorts has to evaporate, right?

It seems to me that the interest rate is the important number. So long as the rate is low I assume that many more shares can potentially be made available to short.

 

[MitchJi]

Insane. Throwing money and resources into a dying technology.

Throwing money and resources at destroying the environment!

The exact opposite of an intelligent policy.

 

[Hogfighter]

It seems to me that the interest rate is the important number. So long as the rate is low I assume that many more shares can potentially be made available to short.

I tend to agree. It makes no sense to me that Fidelity doesn't raise the rate well before they run out of ammo.

 

[AlMc]

For those (like me) who like to get Jesse's take on things:

Some views on current price action

 

[larmor]

The US does not really have a 'national' grid. It is a mishmash or local, state, and regional grids that have little overall coordination. The consequence is expensive, slow and inefficient power distribution since much of the grid components are controlled by local utilities, other by regional forces (the TVA for example).

The other extreme is China, which at present has no nationwide grid (until recently even China's banking system had no national clearing so used MasterCard's for national clearing). Now National Grid, perfectly named is building massive UHV lines to distribute electricity from area with solar, hydroelectric and wind power to area that need the electricity. The US has no UHV lines IIRC.

China has the enormous advantage of going from zero to something. The US began electrifying more than 125 years ago, and lives with the ageing infrastructure and nearly incomprehensible regulatory and ownership structures. The trump administration states that it will fix all that. I hope they will. It will be a massive undertaking physically, but the patchwork ownership and regulations make it far more challenging and complex to establish a functioning national grid. Exacerbating the complexity the Northeastern US buys a large among of electricity from HydroQuebec which makes this an international issue.

The best short-term solutions seem to be those that address weaknesses in existing State and regional grids. The enormous success of West-Texas wind power (11% of Texas electricity consumption today) happened in part because Texas is large enough to deal with the issue locally. They still use the lower voltage grid, though.

China’s Electricity Sector « Energy Map

I am not an electrical engineer nor am I claiming technical expertise. I simply have read a bit on the subject. Some people on this thread are likely to be competent to speak to this issue from their own direct knowledge.

Thnx. Pls move to general thread.

Follow up question based on hypothetical situation: What if my home had several powerpacks and alot of solar cells-- could i sell the excess electricity to my neighbors and not to SCE? What if it were not my home, but a factory warehouse roof? Or somewhere in the desert?