2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA it's on Tesla motor club and likely to be my last post for a while since now things are getting really serious and fun times are over I'm going undercover totally under the radar Time to make some serious money no more personal opinions to post this is action time
Gimme action not words

 

[neroden]

at some point there may be a parabolic short squeeze with an unsustainable stock movement and that would be the time to sell tesla that squeeze may occur within a very short period of time So it will be extremely important to watch day today stock movement of Tesla for the next several months to take full advantage of that short squeeze because if Tesla is not sold into that parabolic unsustainable more than lot of profit may be left on the table

Yeah. I've been starting to think the same thing. Pity that trading that is not compatible with my life; health and family issues mean there are days when I just won't be able to watch it for a whole day, or even several days, so I may just miss it. Like I missed the February 2016 dip.

:shrug: I guess I'll probably just have to ride it up into the overshoot and back down to the sustainable high. Oh well. Still gonna make plenty of money. I'm not greedy; health is more important than money.

 

[D-egg-O]

OK here are my hypothetical longer-term projections for tesla it is likely to run up between now and earnings at a steady pace and then we are likely to have a bullish gap up after earnings and then there is the real risk for shorts that at some point we may have A Porsche Volkswagen like squeeze that happened in 2008 October I believe in Porsche Volkswagen squeeze only 13% of the float was sold short here it is 27% of the float sold short as the bullish momentum gather steam longs are going to be more reluctant to part with their shares and at some point there may be a parabolic short squeeze with an unsustainable stock movement and that would be the time to sell tesla that squeeze may occur within a very short period of time So it will be extremely important to watch day today stock movement of Tesla for the next several months to take full advantage of that short squeeze because if Tesla is not sold into that parabolic unsustainable more than lot of profit may be left on the table now this is entirely a hypothetical scenario and I could be totally wrong but I'm watching Tesla minute by minute every day
After that parabolic move and unsustainable stock price movement is exhausted stock may sharply correct over a period of several weeks to couple of months and that would be the time to buy it again and make another 50 to hundred percent profit so this is an eminently trade able stock long-term holders just buy-and-hold will do just fine but this great opportunity and tremendous traffic profit potential for swing traders like me and especially for those traders like me who are holding tons of call options it would be a great opportunity to make tremendous profits
Now my usual caveat that this is entirely my hypothetical personal opinion and NOT an advice or trading recommendation and I'm more likely to be wrong than right and lose my shirt

Maybe I'll place a limit sell order of $10,000/share just in case.

 

[neroden]

Maybe I'll place a limit sell order of $10,000/share just in case.

Given the psychological impact of round numbers, you'd probably be more likely to get that filled if you set it at $9,998.49

 

[MP3Mike]

$TSLA it's on Tesla motor club and likely to be my last post for a while since now things are getting really serious and fun times are over I'm going undercover totally under the radar Time to make some serious money no more personal opinions to post this is action time
Gimme action not words

@TrendTrader007 But then how am I going to know what to do with my "mad" money?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Yeah. I've been starting to think the same thing. Pity that trading that is not compatible with my life; health and family issues mean there are days when I just won't be able to watch it for a whole day, or even several days, so I may just miss it. Like I missed the February 2016 dip.

:shrug: I guess I'll probably just have to ride it up into the overshoot and back down to the sustainable high. Oh well. Still gonna make plenty of money. I'm not greedy; health is more important than money.

And you may actually come out ahead in the long run since short term stock predictions are inaccurate most of the time

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA well posting all my moves right or wrong on a public forum is inconsistent with making serious profits and distracts from the trades
also if I make a wrong move in the markets then there are naive traders who despite my warnings follow my lead that is bad!!!
$TSLA I'm a serious trader and I can't have every wannabe trader second guessing/emulating all my moves in the markets so no more opinions

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

$TSLA well posting all my moves right or wrong on a public forum is inconsistent with making serious profits and distracts from the trades
also if I make a wrong move in the markets then there are naive traders who despite my warnings follow my lead that is bad!!!
$TSLA I'm a serious trader and I can't have every wannabe trader second guessing/emulating all my moves in the markets so no more opinions

This has got to be a parody account.

 

[AnneBoleyn]

With all due respect, I doubt that.

Your comments* 1. about depressing day on the day of minor pullback, 2. saying that you don't care about money, 3. yet in another comment you say you want to preserve initial investment - all of that makes me think that you're not emotionally truly prepared for roller-coaster that stock market is, especially with leveraged position. I don't have any hope that my words will prepare you, but if you're in a position that is not good match for your risk profile, I hope you recognize symptoms earlier.

But I'm also hoping you don't get tested - good time are probably ahead of us.

And yes, I read almost every comment here, my family's net worth (other than the house) is in TSLA. And I sleep just fine when not leveraged, or when lightly leveraged.

*Reason I remembered your comments is that it reminded me of a younger version of myself

Okay, first of all my comments are all based upon general observations and possess zero emotional attachment. I don't like losing money, what a foolish notion.
However, I don't micromanage it, and if the stock drops or it goes up, I find out way after the fact because it doesn't impact my life at all.
I can always start over, I've done it my whole life. I've never had a patient say to me "I don't feel emotionally prepared to invest money right now." I have far greater concerns in my life.
If everyone feels this is the case, given your 10 something likes, I guess people just like comments they feel are "calling out others."
For heavens sake people- analyze your stocks, I actually analyze PEOPLE professionally! I am a stock newbie, I admit this- no pretence here. I just comment to make it more interesting to follow a forum with others who are sharing a common investment or risk, etc. I think I would do better to simply read, like, & not participate

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I agree with this 100%. The question then becomes this:

Given the number of analysts (i.e. basically all of them) who are banking on a super slow ramp up of Model 3, how quickly (and how much) will analysts change their targets once Tesla proves that it can indeed ship at a run-rate of 500k cars per year by 2017 Year End? Right now Adam Jonas has the stock at like $350 if I remember correctly based on them barely shipping Model 3s in 2018 (something like 20k or less). If the Model 3 projection of shipped cars by 2018 suddenly jumps by a factor of 20, the target stock price for all these analysts will jump up by at least a factor of 2. And again - these targets do not include things like battery storage, solar roofs, semi, Model Y, Pick Up truck, etc etc etc.

Tesla should be able to guide to a number by the Q2 ER for Model 3, since they will need to give guidance for the rest of the year (unless they are able to give guidance for the rest of the year comes May's ER, which I think is a wasted bullet if they are on track to exit 2017 at 500k cars per year).

To be honest - this "short squeeze" has a potential to be a multi-year long run up into the stratosphere if Tesla becomes a manufacturing tour-de-force, which has been a huge directive from Elon for the past year. There will be bumps along the way, but a $200bn market cap is within reach in 1-2 year's time.

Company guidance is 500k cars produced in fully year 2018.

It's extremely unlikely that they would hit 500k run-rate by the end of 2017. Let us know if you have any source/data etc. But I think Elon has been pretty consistent about 2018 guidance

OK here are my hypothetical longer-term projections for tesla it is likely to run up between now and earnings at a steady pace and then we are likely to have a bullish gap up after earnings and then there is the real risk for shorts that at some point we may have A Porsche Volkswagen like squeeze that happened in 2008 October I believe in Porsche Volkswagen squeeze only 13% of the float was sold short here it is 27% of the float sold short as the bullish momentum gather steam longs are going to be more reluctant to part with their shares and at some point there may be a parabolic short squeeze with an unsustainable stock movement and that would be the time to sell tesla that squeeze may occur within a very short period of time So it will be extremely important to watch day today stock movement of Tesla for the next several months to take full advantage of that short squeeze because if Tesla is not sold into that parabolic unsustainable more than lot of profit may be left on the table now this is entirely a hypothetical scenario and I could be totally wrong but I'm watching Tesla minute by minute every day
After that parabolic move and unsustainable stock price movement is exhausted stock may sharply correct over a period of several weeks to couple of months and that would be the time to buy it again and make another 50 to hundred percent profit so this is an eminently trade able stock long-term holders just buy-and-hold will do just fine but this great opportunity and tremendous traffic profit potential for swing traders like me and especially for those traders like me who are holding tons of call options it would be a great opportunity to make tremendous profits
Now my usual caveat that this is entirely my hypothetical personal opinion and NOT an advice or trading recommendation and I'm more likely to be wrong than right and lose my shirt

I'm taking the opposite approach. I'll be holding this stock all the way up to $2,000, because timing it short-term, especially during a short squeeze, is extremely difficult if not impossible. I've tried it in the past, and it turned out worse than it would have otherwise. I also think trading while watching minute by minute, even though knowing it just racks up trading costs and worse total return, is an addiction. Good luck to you though!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does anyone know which banks wrote the call options on Tesla? If those banks aren't hedged with long stock, they may be in big trouble.

If I had call options, I would seriously be worried about credit risk.

 

[Starno]

I'll hold the stock all the way up to 6000 dollars.
Then I'll take some profits (but no more than 50% of my holding), and keep the rest all my life, as long as Elon Musk is still CEO or at least is invested in it, and that they keep innovating I'll hold TSLA.

 

[AlMc]

It is a good time to be invested in TSLA, IMO.

But just be careful out there, especially people that have joined this and other TMC investment threads recently. Firm belief in wild speculations about what the SP will be in 6 days, weeks, months or years may lead not only to disappointment but serious financial harm.

Black swans specific to Tesla or for the general market (macros) are always possible. Diversify.

<climbs off soap box>

 

[Drax7]

OK here are my hypothetical longer-term projections for tesla it is likely to run up between now and earnings at a steady pace and then we are likely to have a bullish gap up after earnings and then there is the real risk for shorts that at some point we may have A Porsche Volkswagen like squeeze that happened in 2008 October I believe in Porsche Volkswagen squeeze only 13% of the float was sold short here it is 27% of the float sold short as the bullish momentum gather steam longs are going to be more reluctant to part with their shares and at some point there may be a parabolic short squeeze with an unsustainable stock movement and that would be the time to sell tesla that squeeze may occur within a very short period of time So it will be extremely important to watch day today stock movement of Tesla for the next several months to take full advantage of that short squeeze because if Tesla is not sold into that parabolic unsustainable more than lot of profit may be left on the table now this is entirely a hypothetical scenario and I could be totally wrong but I'm watching Tesla minute by minute every day
After that parabolic move and unsustainable stock price movement is exhausted stock may sharply correct over a period of several weeks to couple of months and that would be the time to buy it again and make another 50 to hundred percent profit so this is an eminently trade able stock long-term holders just buy-and-hold will do just fine but this great opportunity and tremendous traffic profit potential for swing traders like me and especially for those traders like me who are holding tons of call options it would be a great opportunity to make tremendous profits
Now my usual caveat that this is entirely my hypothetical personal opinion and NOT an advice or trading recommendation and I'm more likely to be wrong than right and lose my shirt

Nice plan, and some times choreography like this pans out.

What I expect: tornado phase ( Moore , gorilla game reference) coupled with a massive short position produces an exponential price move up.

Moreover vertical price moves up , when exhausted , are accompanied by vertical corrections.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

There is a very impressive effort from banks and shorts today.

Goldman reiterated its sell call for the third time in two months.
Morgan Stanley said trucking business is no more than 10% or market cap, with which many bulls would disagree.
There are a ton of SA articles that were published in the last week or so, some of which appear a lot more detailed than usual.

This is really amazing to watch. I'm long and not playing with my positions. It almost makes sense to shut down the computer and get away from the price action.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some of your question - I have no visibility into and would just be guessing. As a lender of shares, at least on occasion, the only information I have is that Fidelity is borrowing my shares (not who they are lending to), and how much Fidelity is paying me. I mentioned elsewhere - I view a lot of the short selling market as being intentionally opaque; intentional on the part of market makers and intentional on the part of short sellers.

As a market participant, I consider the opacity to be a strong negative, and a good reason to never short sell (maybe buy a Put if you want to stake out a position in that direction).


But managing the risk of the overall position is a big part of what the brokerages do, and reducing shares available for short sale sounds like an imminently practical thing to do at times. Mitigating this, is that there's a lot of money for brokerages to make lending out stock to short sellers. So they do like to lend shares too

I view the seemingly low daily shares available as more of an artificial scarcity thing. That's the number of shares Fidelity is ready to lend today at 1%. At the close of the trading day, Fidelity will take stock and make a decision on how many shares they are ready to lend tomorrow. Even if they actually have 5M shares, I don't think I've ever seen them have >1M shares available in @vgrinshpun's reports, and mostly more like 500k.

Maybe it's a mechanism they use to constrain the daily growth in the aggregate short position - so it doesn't get bigger, faster, than their daily manual update and decision making process can react to and manage. H'mm... (the idea that the market is managed as a daily manual update is my own idea and sense of things - not something I've seen anybody write down anywhere)

Since last September, when I started to accumulate data, there were four days with availability in pre-market exceeding 1M shares:

3/13/2017 1,060,968

3/14/2017 1,007,258

3/29/2017 1,124,441

3/30/2017 1,053,623


It is interesting that on first two dates listed above there was the beginning of the reversal of the short downtrend that interrupted the 12/02/16 through 2/14/2017 run-up, while the last two dates were the last couple of doji days in a row of four days that can be loosely defined as doji days before the gap up from $278.73 to $286.90.


I think that availability of shares to short at Fidelity is driven partly by the mechanics of how their platform works, i.e. they need to run special software packages at the end of each day to determine how many shares are available. I think that there are different software programs doing the availability calculation for shares owned by Fidelity, by institutions having Fidelity accounts, individual investors, etc. If they perceive that daily demand would not exceed, say, 300k shares, there is no sense to do more work to “harvest” the available shares that will not be likely to be used.

There might be other similar considerations which are hard to decipher as we are not privy to a lot of information on the process. The bottom line is that after observing this activity at Fidelity for a while, I do not believe they do anything to intentionally limit availability with malice toward short sellers. After all we should not forget that the main reason for shorting to be in existence is that it provides liquidity for the market. I would think there would be severe penalties and robust enforcement by SEC against any entity that interferes with this overall purpose.

As for the yesterday’s short selling activity at Fidelity, the quantity of available shares jumped as compared to previous day, but there were not too many takers. The snap shots of trading screens caught about 123k shares borrowed, and about 87k shares covered, for a net 35k shorted. It was not a very active day after all.

Even more shares made available today, 733K, so I think Fidelity expects demand to increase as SP continues to go up before the ER.

 

[winfield100]

For new members or investors who may not have known about Tesla's infant days of fighting "fake news" and smear campaigns against clean energy. The New York Times wrote a scathing review of a MS in 2013 "running out of juice/batteries" and published pictures of the car getting towed off. It caused the stock to tank as a result, but with a little digging, it was later revealed that the author, John Broder, was a paid oil industry writer. This was only exposed after Elon published the famous "Tesla Logs" to show that Broder purposely ran the car down to empty and did not charge the car to 100% on a long trip. It placed the New York Times in a very embarrassing and uncomfortable PR position. Due to these types of FUD, many veteran investors here are now immune to "fake news". I for one refuse to ever get click bait to anything involving the NYT anymore.

Problems With Precision and Judgment, but Not Integrity, in Tesla Test

2 members of local EVADC club, a guy from NY, a young couple in their 20's just for fun, few folks from eastern shore Maryland, total of 8 tesla's met the following Saturday at Gude Drive, Rockville, Maryland, one continuously tweeting car's status (cozy 72 degrees)(It was february), recreated the Broder run the following cold februrary, saturday, to Delaware supercharger and then north, with no problems. It was fun times

 

[winfield100]

Yeah. I've been starting to think the same thing. Pity that trading that is not compatible with my life; health and family issues mean there are days when I just won't be able to watch it for a whole day, or even several days, so I may just miss it. Like I missed the February 2016 dip.

:shrug: I guess I'll probably just have to ride it up into the overshoot and back down to the sustainable high. Oh well. Still gonna make plenty of money. I'm not greedy; health is more important than money.

perhaps a GTC sell of say 100-300 shares @ say $425-450 limit or so...(so it has to go higher before execution.....)

 

[DurandalAI]

Yeah. I've been starting to think the same thing. Pity that trading that is not compatible with my life; health and family issues mean there are days when I just won't be able to watch it for a whole day, or even several days, so I may just miss it. Like I missed the February 2016 dip.

:shrug: I guess I'll probably just have to ride it up into the overshoot and back down to the sustainable high. Oh well. Still gonna make plenty of money. I'm not greedy; health is more important than money.

Hmm. I should look into if I can set up text messages or some other push instance to my phone when stock prices hit certain highs/lows.

 

[geneclean55]

Hmm. I should look into if I can set up text messages or some other push instance to my phone when stock prices hit certain highs/lows.

Some brokers have that facility.
I know Fidelity does.