The markets seems to ignore all such silly nonsense coming out of inside the circle as spun by the Washington Post and NY Times. This earnings season has been a banner one except for the retail stores and the big 3 automotive. I don't believe this is a Trump market any longer. But that's me.
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remember the AH drop after the election?... it was the #4 largest dollar drop in the dow... and then it rubber banded up in premarket... then the "Trump Rally" began.
an equally significant drop should not be unexpected... eventually... this is simply the worst political situation imaginable... and it's inevitable.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
this guy Adam Jonas or whoever simply makes no sense to me. Ironically, he is considered one of the big TSLA bulls on Wall Street. i think most of these guys are simply clueless and follow a herd mentality with a few exceptions.
eventually, once M3 ramps up these analysts will have no choice but to upgrade. Typically, however by the time they upgrade the stock has already moved up. most of these analysts are simply contrarian indicators and nothing more
Tesla - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership
Straubel gifted 22,000 shares to charity. I think that's a really positive sign that the SP is going to appreciate greatly in the near future.
Ofc, the charity can cash in immediately, but usually that's not the case when they receive a gift in stocks. They keep it, and cash in only occasionally when they need some capital.
Straubel gifted 22,000 shares to charity. I think that's a really positive sign that the SP is going to appreciate greatly in the near future.
Ofc, the charity can cash in immediately, but usually that's not the case when they receive a gift in stocks. They keep it, and cash in only occasionally when they need some capital.
Ah, I have tesla, nvidia who make the tesla computer who just had a very nice pop and I'm up 100% and Albemarle who mine and refine lithium and I'm up 100% alsolol. I'm 100% TSLA.
and a lithium junior that has mines in Clayton valley for more battery stuff.Kinda tapped out but for DCA'ing tiny amounts of shares irregularly.
(Saw a black tesla S60 with Connecticut plate on I-95 in north Carolina heading north exiting for the Rocky mount supercharger today) far from home he was
Among the analysts writing nonsense, I think only the minority of them think silly things, while the majority of them are simply being paid to try to convince others to think silly things when that is appealing to their employers. As to Jonas continuing to be referred to by much of the media as one of the biggest Tesla bulls, I think that is various media outlets trying to convince their readers to believe silly things.
was going to drop you a private note, but your account here doesn't allow that by default. if you are interested in hearing what I was going to mention, you can send me a PM. fwiw, I was not going to make an adoption plea, and, no worries, if you've already got too many conversations going at this time to start a new one.
I'll warn you: this isn't *quite* the right way to view it. Because you can miss a purchase chance if there's a very short dip. If you sell a $180 put and the stock dips to $150 but then goes back over $180 before the expiration date, you probably won't get any stock. (Real, and frustrating, example from February 2016)
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The other problem is the inability to change your mind cheaply if things get really bearish...
Maybe macros or fundamentals change and you see a further downside. By then the stock price is much lower, and covering your short put is expensive, but you no longer want the stock at that price because you feel it will keep going down. That's no fun.
For a week or two week play that's not a serious risk factor, but further out on a large number of contracts can get ugly.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
However it would not be unusual for SP to drop a little and move down below 10 day SMA and more towards 50 day SMA at $290.31 just to scare the hell out of weak holders and embolden the shorts before SP makes a real move up
Lots of real winners do that sort of a fake out to flush out the weak longs just before they take off I might post a few examples next
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Notice how it follows the 10 day SMA (blue line) pretty religiously but occasionally falling below it and staying down for a few days to sucker in the shorts and scare the weak longs
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I suspect similar outcome for TSLA sometime in the next few weeks
Also, notice the cup with handle on daily chart similar to current pattern in TSLA
TrendTrader007
Active Member
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I have a love/hate relationship with Adam Jonas
I think he provides the deepest analyst research/coverage of tesla over the years
However, AJ sometimes he gets into "pissing contests" with Elon. One example was Jonas asking about an Uber-like ride sharing service on EC. Elon didn't want to take about it. Jonas brought it up in subsequent ECs. Finally, Elon revealed it as part of the Secret Master Plan 2 Adam clearly has a very big ego.
As we know, For better or worse Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs move Tesla more than any other analyst
I don't believe in the Chinese Wall between Research side and Investment Bank side. There have been some epic violations especially GS around the cap raises
Finally, I clearly cynically believe analysts are paid to support their houses agenda regardless of their personal belief in the stocks they are covering.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
so basically at the risk of crowding this thread with various charts my point is simple:
TSLA will not behave as most expect, it will scare the hell out of most highly leveraged longs (including yours truly)
however at the end of the day the final outcome over a period of days to weeks to months will be highly satisfactory and profitable to those who hang in
just my opinion
Not an advice
PS: 10 day SMA is the clue to future price movement at this point in the uptrend
maybe 50 day but rather unlikely
i mean there is a clear probability of SP drop but my take on chart convinced me to add significantly to my position today since i'd rather suffer a temporary price drop than miss out on buying stock just before it takes off at the expense of Shortville
TSLA will not behave as most expect, it will scare the hell out of most highly leveraged longs (including yours truly)
however at the end of the day the final outcome over a period of days to weeks to months will be highly satisfactory and profitable to those who hang in
just my opinion
Not an advice
PS: 10 day SMA is the clue to future price movement at this point in the uptrend
maybe 50 day but rather unlikely
i mean there is a clear probability of SP drop but my take on chart convinced me to add significantly to my position today since i'd rather suffer a temporary price drop than miss out on buying stock just before it takes off at the expense of Shortville
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TrendTrader007
Active Member
i agree, based on videos of this dude that I've seen occasionally he does seem to be quite full of himself
however, compared to Elon this guy has not a whole lot of reasons to come across that way
except that he was able to move down TSLA a little less than 3% intraday...big deal
That depends on size and diversification.
Charities aren't allowed to be overly concentrated. I've made a habit of giving to charities with very small endowments (they tend to be more worthy IMNSHO than most megacharities), and I discovered they usually *have* to sell a lot of it in order to comply with IRS diversification rules.
Interestingly, under US tax law, while there's a large tax incentive to transfer stock to *non-charity* recipients (such as your favorite political advocacy organization or whatever) before it goes up in value, there is no such incentive to do so for gifts to public charities; everything works out about the same if you transfer it after it's gone up in value and you may actually get larger tax breaks.
This is a long-winded way of saying that from a tax point of view, JB would donate now if he thought the stock was likely to go down soon.
But really he's probably donating now because his favorite charity needs the money this year (not next year), which is the normal reason for timing of donations.
This is a great summary. I would also add that AJ and most of the other analysts seem to tie themselves up in knots with whatever WS games need to be played.
One of the things I appreciated about Andrea James when she was an analyst is that she would actually provide something close to a genuine valuation instead of a gamed analysis.
Yeah, I pick strikes where there is no plausible scenario where I would decide that it's too expensive. Including a situation where the average market P/E drops to 5 (which has happened in the distant past). So I tend to be quite out-of-the-money on my put strikes. (Musk killed in launchpad explosion and Fremont factory destroyed by earthquake, yeah, that's a possibility which would make me bearish... but not a *plausible* one.) It also keeps me away from the temptation of exiting a position too early, which I've done a few times...
Since the members of this forum are typically quite green politically and Trump is not, there's a bias in perceptions regarding how Americans in general view him. Right after the election results I posted that we shouldn't panic because Trump was elected, things will be okay for our stock, and they have been so far for TSLA. Though you may not like Fox news, take a look at the site for a different perspective. Their position is that the FBI acting director says that Trump has done nothing to impede the investigation of Flynn and the various charges of a Russian connection. Trump claims he suggested to Comey to let Flynn go because he's a good man. This is not a crisis. The investigation is ongoing. It's only a crisis if the investigators find a smoking gun that shows significant wrongdoing by Trump and after all this time that has not happened so far. If the worse thing Comey can throw at Trump for firing him is a suggestion by Trump that Comey go easy on Flynn because he's a good man, that suggests to me that nothing of great substance has been found so far.
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