2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MartinAustin]

If I may butt in and talk about TSLA's short term movements... (is that OK? )

12:29pm EST - Looks like it is at a decision point right now. I'm assuming it will jump up and match the recovery trend that began yesterday morning

 

[JRP3]

As far as I can tell from google search results, the "original source" is the Guardian article, which has been quoted and re-reported many times over by everyone else. So I would not put any weight on the number of media sources.
Long gone are the times of independent fact checking by the media...
Today the standard operating procedure for media sources: I've seen it on the Internet, so it must be true, lets report it!

I wasn't suggesting that other sources did anything more than repeat what the Guardian said, just that with all the repetition I'd think Tesla would make a statement if it were not true.

 

[racer26]

If I may butt in and talk about TSLA's short term movements... (is that OK? )

12:29pm EST - Looks like it is at a decision point right now. I'm assuming it will jump up and match the recovery trend that began yesterday morning

We do indeed seem to have had a triangle forming since about 10:30am.

My expiry day options play sure hopes you're right and we see things pop up in the next little bit.

 

[sahanim]

This thing is wound up like a coil ready to burst one way or the other.

 

[sahanim]

here's to hoping we have a hang glider attached ...

 

[TMSE]

Last nudge: We can debate if the comment is old, new, fake or taken out of context....BUT, unless enough people contact IR about it we will just keep going around in circles

Contact Investor Relations | Tesla Motors

I just sent a note to IR asking for clarification.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Last nudge: We can debate if the comment is old, new, fake or taken out of context....BUT, unless enough people contact IR about it we will just keep going around in circles

Contact Investor Relations | Tesla Motors

I have also emailed the author of The Guardian article asking for clarification. I will post here ASAP if I receive a response. We probably shouldn't inundate her with the same question unless she does not respond today, or she may feel the need to be defensive.

 

[Runarbt]

The original source back then was Elon himself (I heard him saying it in at least one interview). And as I said above, it's quite possible he said it again to the Guardian reporter in the latest interview.

Nope, it is not possible he said the SP is overvalued now, when they sold more stock at 262. That would be like saying "suckers" to everyone who bought stock in the last offering.

 

[JRP3]

Nope, it is not possible he said the SP is overvalued now, when they sold more stock at 262. That would be like saying "suckers" to everyone who bought stock in the last offering.

$51 increase doesn't seem like calling them "suckers". If it were only a few dollars above 262 that might be the case.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm looking at buying Sept 315 Calls, any thoughts on this for short term leading up to earnings.

Any reason this would or would not be a good idea.

Looking for any feedback.

Thanks,

It's a great idea if the M3 launch and ramp go smoothly.

It's probably a very bad idea if the ramp slips by as little as 1-3 months.

I just bought some June 9 $315's. My theory is that the reveal will be the catalyst, and even if there are delays there won't announce them. Otoh if it goes smoothly the September calls will be big winners.

Not an advice.

 

[Runarbt]

$51 increase doesn't seem like calling them "suckers". If it were only a few dollars above 262 that might be the case.

Well, its still only 20% up from the last stock offering.. if that makes it so overvalued the CEO has to announce it to the press.. I'd be seriously pissed as a new investor.

 

[larmor]

Can someone post graph/chart of oil prices over past year(s) overlay with tsla?

 

[MitchJi]

I totally agree. However, isn't the function of the IR department to put things into proper context. This is not the normal 'Tesla killer on the horizon' article.
Again, does not hurt to have many investors asking for clarification. Just need a clear one paragraph statement from IR.

edit: Better than all of us doing our own creative editing/offering opinions on the veracity.

Paging Andrea James
Contact Investor Relations | Tesla Motors

[email protected]

 

[NicoV]

Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi Had a Bad Tesla (TSLA) Customer Experience, and is Worried Before Model 3 Launch

Sacconaghi, whose family put a deposit down on a Tesla Model X on July 2014 and took delivery July, 2016, notes: "On net, our customer experience (ordering, communication, delivery and service) was not good, particularly versus luxury OEMs (BMW, Mercedes) that we had purchased from previously. Overall, we felt like we were dealing with a start-up company in hypergrowth mode (which arguably is what TSLA is) – operationally, nothing was tight, inconsistencies were prevalent, and the customer experience ultimately felt much less intimate."

Below are the issues he cited:

• ISSUE 1: Customers have little to no visibility into when they might get their vehicle, and the priority/reservation system appears to mean little/nothing.
  • TSLA's ordering system for new cars is such that a customer places a deposit, but then has little idea when his or her car might arrive.
  • Even when we were informed that we were eligible to configure and place a finalized order for our Model X, we still couldn't get an answer from Tesla about how long it might take for delivery.
  • We also discovered that the timing of a customer's deposit has no impact on delivery time. This could be a big deal for Model 3 reservation holders given the US Federal tax credit will expire over time/
• ISSUE 2: We found TSLA's direct sales model to be far less intimate (and more fragmented) than the traditional dealer model
• ISSUE 3: Operationally, things were just not "tight".

While Sacconaghi's admits that while his experience represents a sample of one, he has two key concerns: (1) Model 3 buyers will likely be very different than Model X and S buyers and may not be as tolerant of shortfalls in customer experiences such as no visibility on timing of delivery; long wait times for service appointments and inconsistent availability of loaners; and (2) Our experience suggests that TSLA's sales and service network is already strained, with processes not fully in place, and that Tesla will be challenged to ramp its service and delivery capabilities by potentially 3 to 5-fold in the next 2 years, without potentially significant shortfalls.

The firm maintained a Market Perform rating and $250 price target on Tesla.

Despite that, I have yet to meet the first Tesla owner who sees that as such a big problem that they don't want a Tesla for their next car anymore.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:

Market's open, everyone. Move on. Yesterday's newspaper already is lining the canary cage.

Consider the Guardian sub-story CLOSED unless and until one of you has a confirmed response either from that paper or from Tesla IR.

Last word.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Can someone post graph/chart of oil prices over past year(s) overlay with tsla?

It's a very low correlation as there are numerous other factors that affect Tesla, but TSLA does react to large changes, more so in oil equities than in oil prices. It's not a one-to-one relationship that you'll see in a one-year graph.

But it's not a coincidence that Tesla started surging late November, when oil prices also surged.

The correlation is small and more around major turning points than day-to-day movements. I think we're at another turning point for oil this month.

Having said that, oil has made major moves in the last couple of weeks, and TSLA is yet to catch up.

 

[sahanim]

shorts are reallly having a field day today

 

[stealthology]

I'm just reporting the facts, the stock is doing a mini-slip (began @ 2:06) on this right now: ( )

Probes Reporter: @probesreporter
27s
Tesla's also been sitting on undisclosed SEC probes at both $TSLA and SolarCity, but they don't seem to matter either ... Yet.
@eriz35
Just a reminder that $TSLA is still using 14 month old prototypes to hype a car that's supposed to go into "mass production" in a month

This is what is circulating on some trading desks right now.. some people are likely making money off of the gullible.

 

[sahanim]

It's amazing that they can manipulate the stock so easily to get it to max pain.

yea i still have a hard time wrapping my head around the level of coordination between traders and bots.
10K+ shares get dropped each minute during low volume afternoons...

at the end of the day it all comes down to how big your gun is and how many bullets you have left.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi Had a Bad Tesla (TSLA) Customer Experience, and is Worried Before Model 3 Launch

Sacconaghi, whose family put a deposit down on a Tesla Model X on July 2014 and took delivery July, 2016, notes: "On net, our customer experience (ordering, communication, delivery and service) was not good, particularly versus luxury OEMs (BMW, Mercedes) that we had purchased from previously. Overall, we felt like we were dealing with a start-up company in hypergrowth mode (which arguably is what TSLA is) – operationally, nothing was tight, inconsistencies were prevalent, and the customer experience ultimately felt much less intimate."

Below are the issues he cited:

• ISSUE 1: Customers have little to no visibility into when they might get their vehicle, and the priority/reservation system appears to mean little/nothing.
  • TSLA's ordering system for new cars is such that a customer places a deposit, but then has little idea when his or her car might arrive.
  • Even when we were informed that we were eligible to configure and place a finalized order for our Model X, we still couldn't get an answer from Tesla about how long it might take for delivery.
  • We also discovered that the timing of a customer's deposit has no impact on delivery time. This could be a big deal for Model 3 reservation holders given the US Federal tax credit will expire over time/
• ISSUE 2: We found TSLA's direct sales model to be far less intimate (and more fragmented) than the traditional dealer model
• ISSUE 3: Operationally, things were just not "tight".

While Sacconaghi's admits that while his experience represents a sample of one, he has two key concerns: (1) Model 3 buyers will likely be very different than Model X and S buyers and may not be as tolerant of shortfalls in customer experiences such as no visibility on timing of delivery; long wait times for service appointments and inconsistent availability of loaners; and (2) Our experience suggests that TSLA's sales and service network is already strained, with processes not fully in place, and that Tesla will be challenged to ramp its service and delivery capabilities by potentially 3 to 5-fold in the next 2 years, without potentially significant shortfalls.

The firm maintained a Market Perform rating and $250 price target on Tesla.

Unfortunately this is all true. My personal experience in Jan/Feb of this year made me finish process of unlevering on Tesla, as i was being concerned of how would this sales/delivery org play with much higher volumes. having said that, I'm still all in TSLA