2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Gerardf]

Looks up for me :



( Navin : which of those pre-market spikes is yours ? )

 

[Tslynk67]

Stock's down on the German market 1.46%

Isn't that just catching-up with the late drop yesterday on Nasdaq?

 

[Navin]

Looks up for me :

View attachment 230159

( Navin : which of those pre-market spikes is yours ? )

Neither. All my shares were bought when tesla was deep red. I've seen this nonsense so many times. MM / shorts control sentiment by using thinly traded premarket to spook investors. This is a trade for me and will likely exit some time today at a nice profit. Still hold core position which is wayyyy long.

 

[Navin]

Stock's down on the German market 1.46%

LOL.. It's not down. It's up

TL0:Xetra Stock Quote - Tesla Inc

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I see a stock price of approximately $1300 by December 2017 and a market cap of $200B temporarily before the stock drops sharply into new year 2018
Rally should last well into December 2017
Short squeeze of epic proportions will occur
Stock price will be detached from reality followed by a sharp vicious correction
for the next 6 months or so longs will make unimaginable profits

Finance wizards: Assuming the following becomes likely for 2018, what should TSLA be worth. Feel free to challenge my assumptions:

100k Model S & X sales worldwide, 100k ASP, 10B in revenue
400k Model 3 sales worldwide, 42.5k ASP, 17B in revenue
Tesla Energy products, 1B in revenue
Total projected revenue in 2018 of 28B
Gross Margins were about 23% for 2016. Tesla wants 30% GM. Maybe they split the difference and achieve 26% during the 3 ramp?

I do not know what total expenses of SG&A, R&D, and interest will be. Tesla's massive expansion plans including new factories, Model Y, Semi, Pickup, are going to be expensive.

 

[geneclean55]

Strong volume pre-market

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Finance wizards: Assuming the following becomes likely for 2018, what should TSLA be worth. Feel free to challenge my assumptions:

100k Model S & X sales worldwide, 100k ASP, 10B in revenue
400k Model 3 sales worldwide, 42.5k ASP, 17B in revenue
Tesla Energy products, 1B in revenue
Total projected revenue in 2018 of 28B
Gross Margins were about 23% for 2016. Tesla wants 30% GM. Maybe they split the difference and achieve 26% during the 3 ramp?

I do not know what total expenses of SG&A, R&D, and interest will be. Tesla's massive expansion plans including new factories, Model Y, Semi, Pickup, are going to be expensive.

At least $500 per share, but likely more depending on your assumptions for 2019 and beyond, and general market sentiment.

Tesla's valuation is mostly based on the analyst's revenue growth and profitability assumptions in outer years.

 

[Starno]

We might see a gap up

 

[Runarbt]

We might see a gap up

Huge pre-market volume! :-D

I was a bit worried last night by the drop..(a few june Calls I need to unload). Not so worried anymore. ;-)

 

[Starno]

I can see a break over 400 by end of next week.
But thats kinda of a bolsy statement...

 

[hoang51]

We might see a gap up

Will we also see it go to the moon by any chance?

 

[bdy0627]

For the European market, there's a xetra listing and Frankfurt listing. They show different share prices. Anyone know what Xetra is?

 

[madodel]

Up $4 out of the chute. We are off to the races.

So no home runs yesterday with the shareholder meeting, but Elon sounded really positive about the M3 and the target for the semi, so will that counter any bear/short attacks to beat the price down again?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

At least $500 per share, but likely more depending on your assumptions for 2019 and beyond, and general market sentiment.

Tesla's valuation is mostly based on the analyst's revenue growth and profitability assumptions in outer years.

It's very hard to predict the future, which is why I used the near future of 2018 to try to estimate where the stock price would move in the 2nd half of 2017.

500k cars and modest growth in Tesla Energy is something that I think many market players can at least see as a reasonable ballpark guess for what will happen by the end of 2018. So if $500/share is what the company would be worth if the Model 3 ramp was in the bag and Model S/X sales are stable, that's where I think it may grow towards in the next few months as uncertainty around the 3 gradually dissipates.

My general polling at other automotive communities reveals that many people do not believe Model 3 will ship at all this year or have any substantial volume. A lot of gearheads still think Elon is full of it. I don't know if this reflects the sentiment of the investment community generally, but I suspect that even at $350/share, Model 3 is not priced in.

 

[LST]

For the European market, there's a xetra listing and Frankfurt listing. They show different share prices. Anyone know what Xetra is?

Xetra is the automated stock exchange, Frankfurt the physical stock exchange. Buy where its cheaper, sell where its higher.

 

[RedSquirrel]

For the European market, there's a xetra listing and Frankfurt listing. They show different share prices. Anyone know what Xetra is?

Frankfurt is the local stock exchange. Xetra was introduced a long time ago as computer based stock exchange and now is the leading one in Germany in terms of liquidity.

 

[JRP3]

Actually it also increases the risk of a disabling failure because those motors and controllers are logically not independent. Anyone failing could render the whole inoperable.

I can't think of any logical reason for them to be setup that way, and I believe there are reports of people with dual motors who have been able to drive after one failed.

After listening to the meeting Elon said the two motors were "two different motor architectures", to me that sounds like more of a difference than different RPM and torque profiles, making me lean towards possible PM use.

 

[Navin]

Out. God Bless the markets

 

[Lhan]

TSLA has cleared the tower, heading for maximum dynamic BB pressure.

 

[hoang51]

Up $4 out of the chute. We are off to the races.

So no home runs yesterday with the shareholder meeting, but Elon sounded really positive about the M3 and the target for the semi, so will that counter any bear/short attacks to beat the price down again?

At this stage, I hardly see TSLA falling down, unless greedy funds release more downgrades due to high valuation. TSLA is going to see fruit bearing soon enough from Model 3 release to show doubters that TSLA is a real challenger to the status quo.