2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Krugerrand]

I hope the gift will be something that would appeal to everyone, even if white is the most popular, it's still just the preference of maybe only 30% of the people

I thought people already received their gift? It was a print of the design.

 

[AlMc]

I thought people already received their gift? It was a print of the design.

Agreed. If EM plans on any other gift associated with the '3s' early reservations it would be a smooth ramp.

 

[maxlength888]

"Thousands urged to evacuate 'immediately' amid risk of severe flooding and fatal landslides" -Shortville Local News

 

[MitchJi]

Agreed. If EM plans on any other gift associated with the '3s' early reservations it would be a smooth ramp.

For investors the that's the main gift.

 

[KLC13]

I thought people already received their gift? It was a print of the design.

I think there is another gift for first day reservation holders... if the initial options are limited to wheel and paint, the gift is probably a special paint

 

[winfield100]

On the train of thought about the 'news on sunday' including some cars already delivered, that interior shot of a Model 3 from a few days ago that lead to estimating range of the 75kWh Model 3 at >300mi came about because of an employee who had the car who wasn't part of the launch team, and didn't seem to be required to be nearly as secretive about it as others we've seen. Perhaps there are indeed some legs to this notion of some cars already delivered?

aka "The purloined letter", hidden in plain sight.
Perhaps the sunday announcement will be similar to a casual sandbag "oh, by the way, we have been deliveing x number already to employees', some of you may have seen them driving around" with big grin
cue up "stormy weather"

 

[Krugerrand]

aka "The purloined letter", hidden in plain sight.
Perhaps the sunday announcement will be similar to a casual sandbag "oh, by the way, we have been deliveing x number already to employees', some of you may have seen them driving around" with big grin
cue up "stormy weather"

It would be nice, but there's no way any employees have been delivered their cars yet. We'd know about it. They'd have posted pictures on social media. People in the area would have spotted them and taken photos - and no, none of the photos we've seen to date have been employee cars and we know that.

There's a name for this phenomena, where otherwise rational, intelligent people LOSE THEIR MINDS!

 

[Krugerrand]

I think there is another gift for first day reservation holders... if the initial options are limited to wheel and paint, the gift is probably a special paint

Perhaps. Just a handful of hours to wait.

 

[Waiting4M3]

On the train of thought about the 'news on sunday' including some cars already delivered, that interior shot of a Model 3 from a few days ago that lead to estimating range of the 75kWh Model 3 at >300mi came about because of an employee who had the car who wasn't part of the launch team, and didn't seem to be required to be nearly as secretive about it as others we've seen. Perhaps there are indeed some legs to this notion of some cars already delivered?

Any of our VIN tracking gurus have anything to say about what we think 2Q17 deliveries look like? Last I looked at the MS VIN tracker sheet it looked to me like we were on track for about 15k MS in 2Q17, and a 60/40 split as in previous quarters would suggest we were on target for a 25k quarter. My honest belief is that there has been basically no news at all about any kind of break in production or slow downs so a full quarter of running the line at business as usual speeds should produce this many.

That car still had a manufacture plate, so probably unlikely to be an employee car. But I like this line of thinking. M3 spotters should start paying attention to license plate for non-manufacture plate, and look for real VIN # on the car if those start to appear...

 

[Todd Burch]

It would be nice, but there's no way any employees have been delivered their cars yet. We'd know about it. They'd have posted pictures on social media. People in the area would have spotted them and taken photos - and no, none of the photos we've seen to date have been employee cars and we know that.

There's a name for this phenomena, where otherwise rational, intelligent people LOSE THEIR MINDS!

I think Tesla could still have employees who received the car sign a short-term NDA...they can always pas it off to friends that they have the car for testing, which wouldn't be too odd for a Tesla employee.

And/or they could have been delivered to higher-level employees. Either way, I don't think it's too wild of a possibility.

 

[1kEE]

Nice dip and recovery. I could not resist playing that with daily calls, fun fast paced trade!

 

[Richgoogol]

LMAO..stop contaminating the environment with your "gas", you stupid horses!!!
Conventional cars are like 'horses' compared with Elon Musk's Teslas, says VC Gene Munster

 

[The Blue Owl]

Nice dip and recovery. I could not resist playing that with daily calls, fun fast paced trade!

I hope y'all keep an eye on the NASDAQ while you make these trades. For the last few days, TSLA moved in lockstep with the NASDAQ, directionally speaking.

That might (hopefully) change next week due to what Elon will say on Sunday, but I think today TSLA will continue to track the NASDAQ (again, directionally).

 

[winfield100]

There's a name for this phenomena, where otherwise rational, intelligent people LOSE THEIR MINDS!

"of all the things i've lost, i miss my mind the most"
and
as we get older, our senses decline, except for our "sense of wonder" (i wonder where my car keys are and what are 'wavicles')
(and we shall know sunday, gawd, retirement is fun

 

[MikeC]

Don't forget we are still due 2H guidance for this year. Maybe we get Model 3 production/delivery guidance on Sunday.

 

[hobbes]

Any of our VIN tracking gurus have anything to say about what we think 2Q17 deliveries look like?

Not a VIN guru but I can update you on Norway registrations: 1144 in Q2 at the moment vs. 1210 in Q1 (95%), there might be a few more tomorrow.

The X/S ratio is interesting: 2.1 for Q2 vs. 1.5 in Q1. One possible interpretation M3 osborning MS somewhat but MX making up for that.

Standard disclaimer: Just one country, not necessarily representative of worldwide deliveries (but the best data we have).

 

[JBRR]

Not a VIN guru but I can update you on Norway registrations: 1144 in Q2 at the moment vs. 1210 in Q1 (95%), there might be a few more tomorrow.

The X/S ratio is interesting: 2.1 for Q2 vs. 1.5 in Q1. One possible interpretation M3 osborning MS somewhat but MX making up for that.

Standard disclaimer: Just one country, not necessarily representative of worldwide deliveries (but the best data we have).

Is there a ressource where one can look up norway registrations historically?
Would be interesting to see the correlation between norway/worldwide deliveries.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If TSLA goes below $350 in the coming days, I'll be converting some of my holdings to 2019 LEAPs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not a VIN guru but I can update you on Norway registrations: 1144 in Q2 at the moment vs. 1210 in Q1 (95%), there might be a few more tomorrow.

The X/S ratio is interesting: 2.1 for Q2 vs. 1.5 in Q1. One possible interpretation M3 osborning MS somewhat but MX making up for that.

Standard disclaimer: Just one country, not necessarily representative of worldwide deliveries (but the best data we have).

X moving up while S getting somewhat osborned would boost ASP a few percent.

I wonder which has better gross margin assuming both running at 1,000/week.

 

[Tslynk67]

Apple Stocks app back up-and-running...