2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

I see 368.75.
Its basically been 368-369 for over an hour. TSLA pre-market is a strange beast, and not particularly reliable once regular hours trading starts.
In terms of popping though it reached 373

 

[BornToFly]

If the market is rational at all, should be a 10% up day, especially if we hit or exceeded guidance on S&X.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"The market" is on "the beach". Slow upward pressure please!

 

[traxila]

Market has been pricing the Model 3 'on time' for several months. A ten percent up move here would be surprising. Would guess shorts would try to get a bit of a sell the news momentum. And also I have a feeling 2Q sales missed. Elon covering for it with this announcement pretty sure. Osborne effect has been well documented over the past few months. Either way - up or buying opportunity - works for me.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Q3 starting with a gap up which indicates that current quarter could be similar to Q2 or Q3 of 2013 which means that the stock price could easily double in the next three months if it does not double we could have at least a 50 to 80% stock price rally
Personally I'm not chasing the stock here anymore but simply holding it and my feeling is that there should be some major trading opportunities in the next 3 to 6 months
I can Easily foresee the stock trading north of $700 this year by the end of Q3 and if there is a major correction or pull back in Q4 then it could go down by 30 to 40% to low $400s it's entirely possible
So the real big money is in trading the stock from here on rather than simply buying and holding
I still got all my 2018 2019 call options and I'm paying $500 a day in margin interest on my common stock holdings so I am a little risk averse here and prefer just to hold rather than increase my position anymore

 

[Lhan]

Short interest down 6%

 

[Reciprocity]

Market has been pricing the Model 3 'on time' for several months. A ten percent up move here would be surprising. Would guess shorts would try to get a bit of a sell the news momentum. And also I have a feeling 2Q sales missed. Elon covering for it with this announcement pretty sure. Osborne effect has been well documented over the past few months. Either way - up or buying opportunity - works for me.

I agree, the more I thought about the Osborne effect on MS from the 3 the more I realized that the effect would have happened in March 2016, not today. If you need a car today, you wont get a model 3 for 12 months at the soonest. The opposite of an Osborne effect is actually more likely, meaning when people see the 3, ride in the 3 and talk to 3 owners, and I mean people that are not like us and following this stuff, they will end up looking at new and used Model Ss. I also believe the expiring of the Fed credit could double sales for S/X over the next 12 months. In fact, I think Tesla will be building them as fast as they can to make sure the pipeline is full 1H2018.

 

[doctoxics]

Great that production is underway this week! My read on Elon's tweet numbers is that the monthly numbers are weekly run rates that may only be achieved during the last week of the months noted. Assuming that the monthly run rates are achieved in the last week of each month cited, the total monthly productions would look something like:

July - 30
August - 60
September - 750
October - 4,000
November - 11,000
December - 17,000

total - 32,840

Why is it that the Q3 ramp is so slow?

 

[BornToFly]

Market has not been pricing in 20,000 vehicles in December, IMHO.

 

[Yuri_G]

Let's see... will it be 100k to 200k in 2017 like ValueInvestor predicted... or will it be between 10k and 20k like myusername predicted?... but oh no... that was just trolling right?... anyone with a bear sentiment is a troll... because they're always just trying to spread FUD... which is pretty much as real as Elon's ambitious goals.

remember... exactly this time last year everyone was hooting and hollering about 100k to 200k in 2017... and 500k+ in 2018... remember that?... and then reality says 10k to 20k in 2017... and 100k to 200k in 2018.

Next stop 270, please do dig up the posts where everyone proclaimed 100k-200k Model 3 in 2017. Should be easy since everyone was saying it.

Must be tough when all your assumptions are shattered. I'll be sure to pour one out for you July 28th.

 

[1kEE]

Looks like the beginnings of a very Green Day.... if we only had some posititive production and delivery numbers now....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Based on past trends, and my assumptions, I expect a tweet at 11:59 pm PST.

Off by a few minutes...

 

[madodel]

And we are off.

 

[1kEE]

Off by a few minutes...

That 11:59 pm comment proved to be the best call of the weekend, even tho it was probably meant as a joke originally!

 

[maxlength888]

Pretty frustrating to have such a handsome pre-market trading session and then watch it fade. I always expect market open to be more exciting but have been let down these past two weeks

 

[madodel]

Could the lack of enthusiasm be related to the partial day/long holiday weekend? I expected a strong up momentum out of the gate, but this is underwhelming.

 

[elasalle]

Off by a few minutes...

Was a joke right, in the past I don't recall a tweet my EM at 11:59 pm

 

[myusername]

well... whatever it is... 5 minutes after my post the nasdaq recovers 0.1% and TSLA jerks directly back to $366 and sits there.

wow... drug up in premarket and pinned to $366... nobody could have anticipated this sort of move... pure randomness.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Was a joke right, in the past I don't recall a tweet my EM at 11:59 pm

yes - it was a joke combined with some reality... He's almost always late on his announcements.

 

[MP3Mike]

Lying is no problem, just look at electrek comments, there are alredy shills claiming tesla promised 100k M3 this year.

I'm pretty sure at one point Elon said that all first day reservation holders should be able to get their car in 2017. Which would be about 100k.