2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Jayjs20]

@mmd

Man, I wish I had your problem. I have a hefty tax bill this year.

You know, from my massive gains.

 

[bdy0627]

I've been busy selling other stocks and some TSLA stock to prepare to buy more LEAPs. I bought some LEAPs today, including some really cheap J18s for more leverage in case of a turnaround in the next couple of months. I still think that is quite possible. Most of my money is going into J19 LEAPs with strikes anywhere from $200 to $600, which I will do in bits and pieces. Hopefully, this rocket is about to do a Falcon 9 landing maneuver soon.

 

[Starno]

SP is up post market. We might have reached the bottom of this little correction. Now we're going to attack the path to the 400 by end of the month

 

[erthquake]

Anybody know what's causing the steady climb after-hours since about an hour after close? I know it's low volume, but I don't often see that pattern. Maybe someone saw this post in the general discussion thread about IR saying Musk would probably tweet Model 3 SN1?

#20312

 

[Irishjugg]

The statement was about demand, not productions capacity. More production capacity can be built if the demand is there.

Not in anyway quickly. My point was that we can't infer demand peaks based on production if it's at or near 100k. Actual demand is irrelevant because production increases aren't (at least so far) in the works.

Probably a lot of why we haven't seen lots of expansion to more countries.

 

[Irishjugg]

It's getting to the point where I may just throw my personal plans out the window and buy in now. I'm in full FOMO mode now.

Something something more money is lost chasing the last 15% something something.

My plan is to wait for stability, place some limit orders 5-10% above that, then hope it keeps falling and I get even better discounts . I may miss a few% of upswing, but I'll end up close to any local bottom.

 

[Irishjugg]

Same here.
However, the window to buy the dip might be very narrow. There is a chance that we see a tweet with SN1 in all it's glory tomorrow, else prior to the 28th event, some invitations will need to go out regarding launch event.(between now and 28th)

With all the negatives piled on at almost the same time, Earnings might actually be better than expected.

A tweet with SN1 is not likely to move the price up much in my very strong opinion.

For one, it's drowned in the beta pictures that have been showing up near daily. For two, it's just one car. The current narrative is already "such slow production, see, we told you Elon was lying about this being easier to build. Bankrupt by December" for most of the coordinated crazy bear thesis. One production car won't change that and certainly won't reverse this momentum.

I'd also be very surprised if we see a single model 3 picture before the reveal event. That's not the tesla way.

 

[Mkorpal]

A tweet with SN1 is not likely to move the price up much in my very strong opinion.

For one, it's drowned in the beta pictures that have been showing up near daily. For two, it's just one car. The current narrative is already "such slow production, see, we told you Elon was lying about this being easier to build. Bankrupt by December" for most of the coordinated crazy bear thesis. One production car won't change that and certainly won't reverse this momentum.

I'd also be very surprised if we see a single model 3 picture before the reveal event. That's not the tesla way.

Elon personally has only tweeted that very 1st short clip of the RC Model 3 a few months ago. All other RC Model 3 pictures and videos have been confined to Reddit, the message boards, and the fringe blogs. When Elon tweets it, it will be viewed by a much much larger audience. I feel like it will have a much bigger impact than all other pictures to date.

That said, I still don't expect much impact considering the news about the production ramp and reveal date had zero impact, and in fact seemed to help contribute to the sell off.

 

[Irishjugg]

Anybody know what's causing the steady climb after-hours since about an hour after close? I know it's low volume, but I don't often see that pattern. Maybe someone saw this post in the general discussion thread about IR saying Musk would probably tweet Model 3 SN1?

#20312

Perhaps I'm wrong then and they will tweet about it. Hmnn

Still feels wrong to me, takes away from the reveal party thunder, and those things are 90% of Tesla's marketing strategy. That plus anti selling. Will be interesting to see. I'm still going to vote no images or video of SN1 tomorrow. Excited to hopefully be wrong (and I don't expect the stock to increase of my guess ends up wrong)

 

[TMSE]

Not in anyway quickly. My point was that we can't infer demand peaks based on production if it's at or near 100k. Actual demand is irrelevant because production increases aren't (at least so far) in the works.

Probably a lot of why we haven't seen lots of expansion to more countries.

China imposes tariffs on imported Tesla cars, at 40%(?). Read somewhere that for every $6K drop in price, overall demand doubles. Imagine what demand/sales will be for Chinese made Tesla cars with low/no tax. Demand issue is just a red herring.

 

[Jayjs20]

Something something more money is lost chasing the last 15% something something.

I think I've heard that one before.

And you're probably right. I've forgotten how tough is it to time the bottom.

 

[FredTMC]

Perhaps I'm wrong then and they will tweet about it. Hmnn

Still feels wrong to me, takes away from the reveal party thunder, and those things are 90% of Tesla's marketing strategy. That plus anti selling. Will be interesting to see. I'm still going to vote no images or video of SN1 tomorrow. Excited to hopefully be wrong (and I don't expect the stock to increase of my guess ends up wrong)

At the reveal party on 28th, Elon will talk extensively about the features interior and specs of the Model3. This stuff has never been revealed.

So, a quick tweet including the exterior of SN1 tomorrow doesn't take away from the reveal on the 28th of July.

 

[bdy0627]

Why the speculation that cells are being directed away from the cars? It is clear that it is pack assembly issues, not cell allocation.



This is actually way flash crashier than Feb '16. Here is now:

View attachment 234349

Here is Feb 2016: View attachment 234350


In Feb we had a sharp "V" shaped recovery. It was too much too fast, and we had the M3 reveal event at the end of March to look forward to. This time the drop is faster and even more nonsensical. We also have a parallel situation with the M3 handover at the end of the month (delivering ~30 cars at the end of July).

I am looking at this as a gift. Cautiously increasing leverage here. It might go down further but thats ok, I will either hold or leverage harder. I am moving cash and shares to J19's. I don't have confidence that the recovery will be steep so I am not betting the farm on the short term.

My losses in Feb '16 were eye watering. But I made a mint in March '16. That was my best trade ever.

Do you mind sharing what you did? OTM LEAPs? ITM LEAPs? Shorter term calls? Just stock? Just trying to learn here. Thanks!

 

[Curt Renz]

Anybody know what's causing the steady climb after-hours since about an hour after close? I know it's low volume, but I don't often see that pattern. Maybe someone saw this post in the general discussion thread about IR saying Musk would probably tweet Model 3 SN1?

If the media (financial and general) all find it newsworthy to cover the first Tesla Model 3 destined for a consumer rolling off the assembly line, that could indeed induce a jump in the TSLA share price. It may be considered an event for the history books akin to that for the first Ford Model T.

Gene Munster: Tesla's Model 3 could change the world

Meanwhile, weak longs and those getting/expecting margin calls could have been cleared out during regular hours today. During after-hours bargain hunters may have begun shopping.

 

[elasalle]

A tweet with SN1 is not likely to move the price up much in my very strong opinion.

For one, it's drowned in the beta pictures that have been showing up near daily. For two, it's just one car. The current narrative is already "such slow production, see, we told you Elon was lying about this being easier to build. Bankrupt by December" for most of the coordinated crazy bear thesis. One production car won't change that and certainly won't reverse this momentum.

I'd also be very surprised if we see a single model 3 picture before the reveal event. That's not the tesla way.

tweet will most likely come after hours.
Small significant things can cause the momentum to change along with market sentiment.

If a post from GS (David Tamberrino https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/david-tamberrino) analyst or IIHS can cause a dip, surely getting confirmation on SN 1 can cause the SP to rise as well

 

[T3slaTulips]

I'd also be very surprised if we see a single model 3 picture before the reveal event. That's not the tesla way.

I agree, but, he could post a closeup photo of the VIN tag. That wouldn't be a spoiler for the reveal, and it would be nice news.

 

[AlMc]

A tweet with SN1 is not likely to move the price up much in my very strong opinion.

For one, it's drowned in the beta pictures that have been showing up near daily. For two, it's just one car. The current narrative is already "such slow production, see, we told you Elon was lying about this being easier to build. Bankrupt by December" for most of the coordinated crazy bear thesis. One production car won't change that and certainly won't reverse this momentum.

I'd also be very surprised if we see a single model 3 picture before the reveal event. That's not the tesla way.

I believe IR and EM are also acutely aware of the recent large drop in TSLA SP. I think we get the tweet and a picture, or two or three

 

[BornToFly]

This week has been an absolute dream. I never thought I would get to load up on more TSLA the month Model 3 starts delivery with a 20% off sale. For the first time in my life, I'm using margin tomorrow to pick up a lot of shares if it climbs to 315. If it doesn't, I'll lower my Buy stop and buy even more when the knife stops falling. Thank you GS!!!!

 

[AlMc]

This week has been an absolute dream. I never thought I would get to load up on more TSLA the month Model 3 starts delivery with a 20% off sale. For the first time in my life, I'm using margin tomorrow to pick up a lot of shares if it climbs to 315. If it doesn't, I'll lower my Buy stop and buy even more when the knife stops falling. Thank you GS!!!!

While I do not think GS did it just for you (us on TMC), I do think their plan was to help some of their investors.

 

[Navin]

This is probably why the stock is up after hours.

This is of course bearish somehow
Tesla Model S Crushes Large Luxury Car Competition (H1 2017 US Sales)