2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MP3Mike]

Is bold-ed part common in US? Because I've bought fair chunk of new cars, and I've never, ever had opportunity to drive specific (new) car that I would buy. Dealer typically maintain one or two demo cars, and there is no way the'll let you put any km on brand new, never touched car.

Yes, in the US most dealers have 100s of cars on their lot in various colors/configurations, you go through and pick the one you think you would like, take it for a test drive, and if you like it, and can afford it, you can purchase it on the spot and take it home.

Very few people custom order a car. (Other than a Tesla of course.)

 

[madodel]

Yes, in the US most dealers have 100s of cars on their lot in various colors/configurations, you go through and pick the one you think you would like, take it for a test drive, and if you like it, and can afford it, you can purchase it on the spot and take it home.

Very few people custom order a car. (Other than a Tesla of course.)

And if there is something different that they don't have on the lot they can usually trade for what you want from other area dealers so you can see it before you buy. Every dealer I have ever dealt with has always discouraged custom ordering a car. Until my Model X I never custom ordered a car before. What was always odd to me is a dealer could have 10 cars of a model and they were almost all the exact same equipment other than color. I asked a salesman about it and he said they order what they think most people wanted and what special deals the manufacturers were offering. Not sure if that is a general US thing or maybe just the dealers I have dealt with.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

#ExhaustGate escalating, former Audi manager arrested. In jail in Munich in Germany since Friday (link).

 

[jhm]

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The 100 SMA provided strong support yesterday and again today. Hopefully we are done with red candles now. I'm still a little concerned this was all we could get today with the SA battery news. The stock bounced down hard off of 316 twice today. 15 trading days until Model 3 reveal. I bought quite a few LEAPs today as I think this is a good overall price point to pick up some more. TSLA probably remains vulnerable over the next week but I would also think that any further drops would be much smaller than what we saw this week.

I expect the week leading up to the M3 reveal to be very strong. But, Q2 ER is expected to be weak. That will be around Aug 1st, just 2 trading days after the M3 reveal. Given the market disappointment over the Q2 delivery numbers, perhaps a poor Q2 ER is already priced in and won't cause much of a drop. If there is strong positive momentum building into and beyond the M3 reveal then I would think the effect would be pretty muted. We'll see. There are lots of investors and traders ready to get back in once this stock CLEARLY stabilizes. Most likely there won't be any real news until the 7/28 reveal, so macros may play a heavy role in the share price for now.

Stock sold out into MX reveal

 

[bdy0627]

You should not even think about buying J19 LEAPS, other than cheap very high strike price lottery tickets, unless you are extremely confident that the SP will increase substantially by mid 2018 at the latest.

If that happens that will dwarf the relative iv related options price changes. Example, despite suggestions that they were overpriced I bought J19 $240's for $19.50, in November, the second day that they were available with the SP at about $180. Currently at $99.80. Still a five bagger, after the huge dip.

The stock really doesn't even need to rise that substantially for LEAPs to outperform stock. Even if the share price only rises to $350 (and I think it will get much higher) in the next 3 months, you will do better with J19 LEAPs than common shares. Let's say by 8/2/17, the stock is at $350. That would give you a 12% gain in the stock. With J19s this would be your profit:
$250 Strike: 30%
$300 Strike: 35%
$400 Strike: 46%
$450 Strike: 51%
$500 Strike: 57%
If the stock rises to $400, the outperformance becomes much more dramatic. So, in my opinion, unless you think the stock is unlikely to go up even 10% over the next 9 months, you would be better off in LEAPs than shares. The problem with the cheaper very high strike J19s, particularly at $500 and $600, is that your time window for a more moderate share price climb to be profitable is much smaller. If the share price rises dramatically, then those work very well, but you really are placing yourself in a position where you need the share price to go up quickly in a moderate fashion or a huge amount overall. The lower strike prices are much more forgiving.

 

[Navin]

This guy who is a market maker and one of the 50 richest people in America is short tesla. There is no market manipulation (wink wink).

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes, in the US most dealers have 100s of cars on their lot in various colors/configurations, you go through and pick the one you think you would like, take it for a test drive, and if you like it, and can afford it, you can purchase it on the spot and take it home.

Very few people custom order a car. (Other than a Tesla of course.)

My point was poorly articulated, or understood. I was also describing buying from existing inventory.
Dealers in Canada also have hundreds of cars on lots, but they will not let you drive car that hasn't been driven already. For that, they have one or two demo cars that accumulate significant mileage and is eventually sold at a discount.
So you get a 'virgin' car if you will, not one that someone has already tried. There is more details in my original post, but simply, you drive representative car and then choose of the computer screen from available inventory.

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[geneclean55]

Here it comes..

 

[T3slaTulips]

They built it!

 

[FredTMC]

They built it!

Pics coming soon

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

\/

 

[T3slaTulips]

Now that they've built the first, we just reserved our 2nd. First reservation was 4/1/16 (mine), wife reserved hers about 3 minutes after Elon tweeted that SN1 was complete.

 

[JRP3]

Now that they've built the first, we just reserved our 2nd. First reservation was 4/1/16 (mine), wife reserved hers about 3 minutes after Elon tweeted that SN1 was complete.

But, but, the bears keep saying people will be cancelling reservations in droves!

 

[Navin]

Mark spiegel is Wigging out on twitter. Feel sorry for him. Nah --- hope he loses his marbles and goes broke.

 

[JRP3]

Mark spiegel is Wigging out on twitter. Feel sorry for him. Nah --- hope he loses his marbles and goes broke.

 

[MP3Mike]

My point was poorly articulated, or understood. I was also describing buying from existing inventory.
Dealers in Canada also have hundreds of cars on lots, but they will not let you drive car that hasn't been driven already.

Nope here in the US every car in the lot is available to sit in/test drive. (At least at every dealer I have ever gone to.)

That is why some people have an issue with Tesla because they won't let you drive it first. While driving a representative car is great, making sure the car you are buying sounds right, handles correctly, etc. is something we are just used to.

 

[KLC13]

But, but, the bears keep saying people will be cancelling reservations in droves!

New SA articles being typed right now on how even the SN1 of Model 3 is already late!!