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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I couldn't disagree more. People on this board forget that 98% of the car buying public is completely naive about EV's, and especially about charging. I'm noticing an increasing number of non-EV savvy friends and acquaintances showing interest in Tesla. The Tesla stores provide a credible source for answers and evangelism. And what about the G&A leverage on the TE side we were expecting to get by replacing the SolarCity sales folks at Home Depot with product specialists at Tesla stores?

It is way too soon to assume that the bulk of potential buyers only need info from friends, neighbors and the internet to make a Tesla purchase decision IMO.
Went to Tesla store in Tampa, Florida, USA for a meeting of about 30-50 folks talking with 3 Tesla Energy specialists, Sat 7/8/2017.
They are expanding in the Tampa/Orlando Florida area (I think FPL {florida power and light utility})
They have a power wall on display and a generic PV panel. They are using the nice 325w panels that look esthetically quite pleasing.
(I'm 120 miles ~200km south and a different utility, so need to work)
It's located in a high end mall and there were probably a few hundred people who wandered through the store in the 2 hours, some looking at cars, some at energy products.
I asked about aggregating the inverters into VPP's (virtual power plants) and how soon, a generic probably 5 years or so
I commented that Ta'u in Samoa micro grid is on an island, that Kaua'i is a bigger island and the continental US and Africa are just "bigger islands" and got a generic, yes you are right, but no denial or confirmation.
They are focused on expanding Tesla Energy in Central and western Florida (the sunshine state) rapidly and professionally
i'm thinking about holding TSLA stock for at least 30 years and slowly DCA'ing more
(Dammit, if i had bought AAPL when i was told to about 31 years ago, it would be worth >$8,000/share presplitz, or i would have 5,600 shares)

{also, as an aside, even EV drivers are not really overly educated. I was checking out Edmunds Total Cost of Ownership and they said

"Good to know, Robert. It seems more and more like electricity is the way of the future. The curious catch-22 is the fact that we still generate a lot of our electricity with coal. Which, at the risk of sounding overtly political, seems to defeat the intended purpose.

Wonder what the future looks like? Good to know you and others are going to stick with EVs. I'm an EV driver myself. 2016 FIAT 500E."

they are unaware of the decline in 5 years of coal use of 5 quadrillion BTU's (2011 - 2016) (19 down to 14)(over 20%) and the increase in PV of ~.1 to ~.6 quadrillion BTU's.
Energy Flow Charts
 
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I don't think I have pointed that out? I have pointed out that Tesla's inventory is growing but I don't know either way if Tesla is moving towards sales from inventory. Regardless, my point here is that it is dissappointing because it is not consistent with a production issue that has been resolved (100kWh model). If that were the case, I would have expected production at full tilt and many outstanding orders becoming ready for delivery.
Most of the April and May orders were for overseas deliveries. So Tesla had the choice of either increasing the in transit numbers, or delivering more cars as loaners etc.

Our different perspective is due to the fact that I know that Tesla is telling the truth, so I try to understand what they did from that perspective.

OTOH you assume that they are liers and are looking for anything that supports that point of view. I don't understand why anyone would want to invest in a company that they don't trust. I guess it makes sense to you because you probably don't trust any company?
 
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^^ You're literally making it sound like a religion. "I know that God is real".

You should always question the companies you invest in more than the companies you elect not to invest in, unless you don't care about your investments.

I don't think anyone in this discussion has said that Tesla is flat out lying, but merely trying to get as accurate a picture as possible from the information available to the market.

Tesla hasn't previously shied away from having cars in transit at the end of the quarter and in any case, sending cars to loaner fleets *instead* of sending them to waiting customers does not seem like a good move and ironically, since I don't believe Tesla would sink that low, I don't think that's what's happened. If I were a customer who placed an order three months ago for a 100kWh Model X and Tesla tells me that "yea we made your car three weeks ago, but we're actually going to send it to a loaner fleet instead of sending it to you for the sake of market appearance so you'll have to wait another two months for your new car", I would be pretty pissed off.

And in any case, how is a car produced, but not delivered looking better than a car in transit? Just makes no sense.

If a loaner car is counted as a delivery and the number of loaner cars increased significantly during Q2, well then the numbers just became a lot worse. I always assumed that this was the explanation for the lack of deliveres versus produced cars (4000 deficit for Q2 and 3000 for Q1).
 
^^ You're literally making it sound like a religion. "I know that God is real".

You should always question the companies you invest in more than the companies you elect not to invest in, unless you don't care about your investments.

I don't think anyone in this discussion has said that Tesla is flat out lying, but merely trying to get as accurate a picture as possible from the information available to the market.

Tesla hasn't previously shied away from having cars in transit at the end of the quarter and in any case, sending cars to loaner fleets *instead* of sending them to waiting customers does not seem like a good move and ironically, since I don't believe Tesla would sink that low, I don't think that's what's happened. If I were a customer who placed an order three months ago for a 100kWh Model X and Tesla tells me that "yea we made your car three weeks ago, but we're actually going to send it to a loaner fleet instead of sending it to you for the sake of market appearance so you'll have to wait another two months for your new car", I would be pretty pissed off.

And in any case, how is a car produced, but not delivered looking better than a car in transit? Just makes no sense.

If a loaner car is counted as a delivery and the number of loaner cars increased significantly during Q2, well then the numbers just became a lot worse. I always assumed that this was the explanation for the lack of deliveres versus produced cars (4000 deficit for Q2 and 3000 for Q1).
The cars assigned to test drive make sense to me with the phone calls in mid June from Tesla to all M3 reservation holders, asking them if they wanted to test drive the MS/X. Tesla wanted more people to test drive to increase the demand for the MS/X, same effect as the beginning of July performance bump to MS/X. Tesla may be doing this because the MS/X production capacity has increased recently, matching their guidance that 2H delivery will be higher than 1H.
 
Should gap up, only new negative news is that sales in HK went to zero after subsidy withdrawn.
Tesla's Hong Kong Sales Gutted by Tax Change
Why are some expecting a gap up Monday? From confirmation that the first M3 was in fact produced? I don't believe the market expected a delay with that one but perhaps it will help shift sentiment back to positive? I honestly have absolutely no idea what Monday will bring for the share price.
 
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Most of the April and May orders were for overseas deliveries. So Tesla had the choice of either increasing the in transit numbers, or delivering more cars as loaners etc.

Delivering more cars as loaners? How does that work when you already have a loaner/inventory fleet of over 12k?

Our different perspective is due to the fact that I know that Tesla is telling the truth, so I try to understand what they did from that perspective.[/QUOTE

OTOH you assume that they are liers and are looking for anything that supports that point of view. I don't understand why anyone would want to invest in a company that they don't trust. I guess it makes sense to you because you probably don't trust any company?

I would characterise it more as that I don't think Tesla is telling the full truth but rather very specifically releasing information that supports a positive story while avoiding to tell a negative story. To me, that is ethically, morally and business-like acceptable behaviour for a company but that does not mean I don't try to understand the full story. Hence that I was I still invest in Tesla. At points where I think I can't trust management, I disinvest immediately. I have been quite open about when I did so with Tesla over the years.
 
^^ You're literally making it sound like a religion. "I know that God is real".

You should always question the companies you invest in more than the companies you elect not to invest in, unless you don't care about your investments.
This forum really needs a "Ludicrous" feedback button!
 
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Why are some expecting a gap up Monday? From confirmation that the first M3 was in fact produced? I don't believe the market expected a delay with that one but perhaps it will help shift sentiment back to positive? I honestly have absolutely no idea what Monday will bring for the share price.
Mainly back on Sentimental Shift after a sharp drop
But even with Technicals looks like Fri, a Doji formed indicating neutralization of Selling pressure - (some more experienced Technical guys might want to confirm this, which I am not ;) )
 
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I didn't see any mention of price reductions in that article. So far the pricing is firm. But you still have 6 months for that to change.

The other angle to my bet is that I would prefer receiving two boxes of firm chocolates in January rather than one box of melted chocolates in July. It hit 100 here yesterday.
 
You may be the only person on this forum that doesn't know that Tesla is moving towards more sales from inventory.

Unfortunately a lot of people on this forum 'know' a lot of things based on their gut feeling rather than a critical observation of available data. Look, not saying that it isn't happening. But I have yet to see hard data that confirms the shift is real and meaningful.
 
This is my first big drop with LEAPs. I bought a J19 $250 near the peak. It's down 36%. I'm tempted to sell it and buy at a higher strike believing that the stock is now even more likely to go up. Obviously, if the stock goes down then I would be better off just holding this rather than striking up. If the stock goes up to $350 in the next few months, there isn't much difference in return with a higher strike price. Only a 4% increase by going to the higher strikes. If the stock gets closer to $400, then it's a different story and I would be much better off with a higher strike. With others doing LEAPs, do you tend to just hold through drops? Or do you go to a higher strike if you believe the stock is very likely to rally in the next few months? Thanks
 
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