Krugerrand
Meow
I sprained an ankle, broke a hip, busted a lung and had a stroke watching that video.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I sprained an ankle, broke a hip, busted a lung and had a stroke watching that video.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
"I have 4 words for you, TOO MUCH NOSE CANDY!!!"
I just placed an order for another 45 shares tomorrow, hoping for a strong day 
I am concerned for the mental state of the protagonist, his audience and those watching the video...
bdy0627
Active Member
Wow! Thanks for the info. That's very helpful. I understand you have reduced your leverage. After that experience, do you increase leverage as the stock price drops and decrease it as it rises? Or are you approaching it some other way now? Just holding?I held through drops and traded around position(increased leverage when I though we bottomed, what you're just about to do), and this is how my most aggressive account looked like:
View attachment 234939
I dropped 98.47% at the lowest point, i.e. had 1.53% value left, just to recover to 28.18% end of April(even better now), i.e. I had 1741% return after I lost it almost all
View attachment 234940
Think about this... Increasing leverage at the wrong time will get you into some version of this graph. Please notice that drop, peak to through was $150,000 to $1131.68. It's not very comfortable thing.
BTW, I'm more than fine, this was just one of the accounts...
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I totally agree. Some guys are too smart for their own good
I have zero doubt that shorts will lose billions again and in the very near future for the simple reason that with M3 on track it's only a matter of time that SP catches up with fundamentals. I do not wish to reiterate several strong arguments already made by longs on this forum as well as astute technical observations by others like 1KEE but the fact remains that a 20% drop within 2 weeks is nothing unusual for a growth stock. In fact 30% to 39% drop within a few weeks is business as usual and I would be totally unsurprised if TSLA resumes its winning ways in short order and decimates the short sellers' accounts. I'm working on freeing up another million to invest in a tax free account by the end of this quarter so either ways I'm in a win win scenario. If SP takes off then I'll br happy but if it stagnates or worse then I get to invest that cash accordingly. So bring it on shorts let's see what you guys are made of
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I finished deleveraging just few days ago, before this drop. Though to be honest, that last chunk was very small, ~4%
Nowadays, I use DITM calls('19, $100 strike, no time value, i.e. time value less than 0.5%), but I buy only as many as I have money to execute, which is what I call 100% TSLA investment, no leverage.
Going forward, I expect to play with up to 5-10% leveraging/deleveraging, no more.
Part of the reason is that I have achieved my financial goals, so my risk tolerance is much lower now. Part is horrendous experience with TSLA that lasted almost 2 years. And final reason is that past impatience to reach specific round number is what hurt me, prevented me in sticking to my strategy. I was coming close to magic number few times, and never quite got to it. Instead of using smart, prudent strategies to manage risk, I was focused completely on the number.
Coming close to losing it all, made me look deep into my soul, and realize that I can actually go through complete loss if I had to. I found piece with that future. I have a good job and would be able to rebuild retirement folio. That reset my expectations in a sense that I accepted to play looong game. And of course, than stock recovered from $140 in Feb '16
My portfolio is about 6x of what it was in Feb '16. Hence my current strategy, playing long game, no time pressure. I trust TSLA will be multiple of current stock price and I don't know when, but it will be, and I am best off staying unleveraged and waiting.
Last edited:
This pullback was a possibility known to many technical traders.... We needed a continuation of the parabolic move up, but any hiccup was a pontetial starting point of a pullback.
The Nasdaq softness and overall macro softness, combined with a sub-optimal delivery number, combined with a bear raid (thanks GS and Mr. lefty lemon), and holiday week, there ya go.
Pullback happened. Bounce time now.
Edit: reason for me saying "bounce time now" is a combo of index futures looking positive, and an overall feel of TSLA oversold and due for a gap up kinda sentiment.
Last edited:
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Free advertisement for Model 3 future buyers Here’s your first official glimpse of Tesla’s finished Model 3
Premarket looks good for Monday morning. My morning nonfat, decaf, latte' or why bother latte' will at least taste good today
Here’s your first official glimpse of Tesla’s finished Model 3Premarket looks good for Monday morning. My morning nonfat, decaf, latte' or why bother latte' will at least taste good today
Give yourself a treat.Free advertisement for Model 3 future buyers
Premarket looks good for Monday morning. My morning nonfat, decaf, latte' or why bother latte' will at least taste good today
Order a double shot decaf
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You should change your leverage based on one thing only. What do you expect, with extreme confidence that the SP will do between now and the options expiration date.
His mistake due to the timing of increasing his leverage boiled down to one thing. The SP continued to decline after he increased his leverage. The only good moves if the SP is going to continue to decline is to ethier eliminate leverage entirely or to buy puts.
Last edited:
bdy0627
Active Member
Definitely makes sense. The other consideration I would add is that even though you expect the stock to be higher before the options expiration date, it's certainly riskier to chase the stock up with options. Dips offer a dramatically better entry point. This is true for shares too but it's a night and day difference for options. That's where I went wrong with this flash crash. I started increasing my leverage with shares as the stock broke out of consolidation around $215 to $220. I didn't do options at that time, otherwise that would have been the ideal time (as you did.) I started adding LEAPs around $300, which turned out fine. Problem is I got caught up in thinking there was going to be an even greater rise because of the shorts closing their positions on the way up. I should not have chased the stock up with options so high.
Here's my strategy now:
40% shares / 60% LEAPs (mostly J19 $300s)
With any 10% rise or fall in stock price, I will rebalance and adjust the leverage ratio
If it goes down 10%, my leverage will increase to 30% shares / 70% LEAPs
If it goes up 10%, my leverage will decrease to 50% shares / 50% LEAPs
This way I am systematically selling high and buying low
Trouble would come with a big prolonged dip like a Bear Market that lasts 18 months. That's essentially what happened to Zhelko but he was also chasing it up too high it sounds as well as trading too much. Adjusting leverage at 10% changes in the stock may actually be too much trading but that's where I'm going to start now. 15% to 20% might be better though. Basically, the closer you are to buy and hold, the better you are likely to do.
bdy0627
Active Member
How would you have done during that timeframe if you had changed your leverage by increasing leverage every time the stock dropped 10% and decreased it when the stock increased 10%? Would that have made a difference? It sounds like you chased it up too high with options.I finished deleveraging just few days ago, before this drop. Though to be honest, that last chunk was very small, ~4%
Nowadays, I use DITM calls('19, $100 strike, no time value, i.e. time value less than 0.5%), but I buy only as many as I have money to execute, which is what I call 100% TSLA investment, no leverage.
Going forward, I expect to play with up to 5-10% leveraging/deleveraging, no more.
Part of the reason is that I have achieved my financial goals, so my risk tolerance is much lower now. Part is horrendous experience with TSLA that lasted almost 2 years. And final reason is that past impatience to reach specific round number is what hurt me, prevented me in sticking to my strategy. I was coming close to magic number few times, and never quite got to it. Instead of using smart, prudent strategies to manage risk, I was focused completely on the number.
Coming close to losing it all, made me look deep into my soul, and realize that I can actually go through complete loss if I had to. I found piece with that future. I have a good job and would be able to rebuild retirement folio. That reset my expectations in a sense that I accepted to play looong game. And of course, than stock recovered from $140 in Feb '16
Sudre
Active Member
If the bears in the asorted feeds are any indication of them fearing a soon large uptick in TSLA, I would say something big is coming soon. They are pouring on the FUD like I've never seen.
I have never figured out what "Federal tax break" Tesla is getting, for example, since I received the credit and not Tesla and I was buying an S with or without the tax credit.
I have never figured out what "Federal tax break" Tesla is getting, for example, since I received the credit and not Tesla and I was buying an S with or without the tax credit.
T3slaTulips
Member
My news feed on IB have been 95% negative as long as I remember. Now, I know why
The IB founder/CEO seems to be a big TSLA short. For this reason I will never open account at IB. I don't want my opponents to see my strategies and positions.
Looks like another morning bear attack. We've been seeing this practically daily for a long time though. It doesn't have the effect of that anamalous high-volume Monday attack.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Welp, there goes the pre-market.
Pre-market action is likely manipulated to affect retail investors' mood, as your post illustrates.
Ameliorate
Member
screw them. bought a couple sept2017 340's and jan 2019 600's at 309.
Same here, another couple of Jan19/18 Calendar spreads at 440 strike.
I'm tempted to close the Calls I sold earlier for jan 18's against Jan 19's. Wait for a bounce and resell them again .. let's see ..
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
