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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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There are many here that don't understand the Stock Market and how the market acts.

There's no need to talk about "manipulation" or "voodoo" or any other reason. In a stock like TSLA that doesn't happen. Period.
The market acts on its own disregarding most of the outside things .

The stock price today went the direction it should... and it will continue until the current movement is completed.

This is a continuation of a short term trend that started on day 27 and before that the medium term already have changed to bear. Look at June 23th for the first moment of change. Only Long term is still Bull.

Some news only amplifies the movement, it rarely changes its direction. Except at exhaustion moments.
TSLA is manipulated more than any other stock I've ever traded. Charts can change in a heartbeat. So don't be so sure about what the charts are saying to you. There are no absolute truths in the stock market. I'm wrong all the time. The only reason I make any money is because when I'm right I make much more than what I lose when I'm wrong
So those who act as know it all in the markets shall learn painful lessons soon enough
 
This is mere chartism. The fact is that the chart movments are driven by actual people's (and bots') behavior. We're trying to understand the people's behavior; we're looking at a deeper level than you are.

In Stock Market the main objective is not to "understand the people's behaviour"...it's to make money.

You need to understand this: The market is always right..always and every time, no exceptions.

If the market is doing something you don't understand or you don't have an explanation to it, the problem is in you and not the market.

Charts shows movements of price splitted in time containers. Investors make transactions. Transactions make movements in price. This movements is what makes an investor money. The larger the movement the more money an investor makes. No movement, no money ;)

You enter in the same direction of the market, then you hold and catch its movements until they finish. When the market turns you exit or reverse your position.

Easy peasy, right ?

TSLA is in a short an medium term bear trend. It will continue for some more time until both these movements are exhausted and these trends switch to bull again.. It will happen first on the short term and then on the medium term unless these trends continue and the long term trend switches to bear too.

No one knows when or what will be the order of these events, but is possible to identify situations that helps to determine what is happening inside the trends and when they are close to switch.

And I can tell you this: it's not the news.

Movements in the stock price is not a reaction to news. Most of the times its exactly the opposite. It's the movement in price that triggers some kind of "headline" in some newspaper...media just delivers what everyone wants: a reason.
 
In Stock Market the main objective is not to "understand the people's behaviour"...it's to make money.

You need to understand this: The market is always right..always and every time, no exceptions.

If the market is doing something you don't understand or you don't have an explanation to it, the problem is in you and not the market.

Charts shows movements of price splitted in time containers. Investors make transactions. Transactions make movements in price. This movements is what makes an investor money. The larger the movement the more money an investor makes. No movement, no money ;)

You enter in the same direction of the market, then you hold and catch its movements until they finish. When the market turns you exit or reverse your position.

Easy peasy, right ?

TSLA is in a short an medium term bear trend. It will continue for some more time until both these movements are exhausted and these trends switch to bull again.. It will happen first on the short term and then on the medium term unless these trends continue and the long term trend switches to bear too.

No one knows when or what will be the order of these events, but is possible to identify situations that helps to determine what is happening inside the trends and when they are close to switch.

And I can tell you this: it's not the news.

Movements in the stock price is not a reaction to news. Most of the times its exactly the opposite. It's the movement in price that triggers some kind of "headline" in some newspaper...media just delivers what everyone wants: a reason.

If investors don't use "news" to inform whether it's time to buy or sell a stock, then what do they use?
 
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In Stock Market the main objective is not to "understand the people's behaviour"...it's to make money.

You need to understand this: The market is always right..always and every time, no exceptions.

If the market is doing something you don't understand or you don't have an explanation to it, the problem is in you and not the market.

Charts shows movements of price splitted in time containers. Investors make transactions. Transactions make movements in price. This movements is what makes an investor money. The larger the movement the more money an investor makes. No movement, no money ;)

You enter in the same direction of the market, then you hold and catch its movements until they finish. When the market turns you exit or reverse your position.

Easy peasy, right ?

TSLA is in a short an medium term bear trend. It will continue for some more time until both these movements are exhausted and these trends switch to bull again.. It will happen first on the short term and then on the medium term unless these trends continue and the long term trend switches to bear too.

No one knows when or what will be the order of these events, but is possible to identify situations that helps to determine what is happening inside the trends and when they are close to switch.

And I can tell you this: it's not the news.

Movements in the stock price is not a reaction to news. Most of the times its exactly the opposite. It's the movement in price that triggers some kind of "headline" in some newspaper...media just delivers what everyone wants: a reason.
I'm as big a believer in the (long term) efficiency of the free market as anyone, but this is just autistic market fundamentalism.
 
In Stock Market the main objective is not to "understand the people's behaviour"...it's to make money.

You need to understand this: The market is always right..always and every time, no exceptions.

If the market is doing something you don't understand or you don't have an explanation to it, the problem is in you and not the market.

Charts shows movements of price splitted in time containers. Investors make transactions. Transactions make movements in price. This movements is what makes an investor money. The larger the movement the more money an investor makes. No movement, no money ;)

You enter in the same direction of the market, then you hold and catch its movements until they finish. When the market turns you exit or reverse your position.

Easy peasy, right ?

TSLA is in a short an medium term bear trend. It will continue for some more time until both these movements are exhausted and these trends switch to bull again.. It will happen first on the short term and then on the medium term unless these trends continue and the long term trend switches to bear too.

No one knows when or what will be the order of these events, but is possible to identify situations that helps to determine what is happening inside the trends and when they are close to switch.

And I can tell you this: it's not the news.

Movements in the stock price is not a reaction to news. Most of the times its exactly the opposite. It's the movement in price that triggers some kind of "headline" in some newspaper...media just delivers what everyone wants: a reason.
This all sounds great in theory but in practice it's not so easy. but if you can execute it precisely then I'm happy for you. I'll continue to believe that shorts are out to get us all and news matters a lot
 
TSLA is manipulated more than any other stock I've ever traded. Charts can change in a heartbeat. So don't be so sure about what the charts are saying to you. There are no absolute truths in the stock market. I'm wrong all the time. The only reason I make any money is because when I'm right I make much more than what I lose when I'm wrong
So those who act as know it all in the markets shall learn painful lessons soon enough

Sure. If you win more money than you loose, it works and that's ok.

Any strategy that makes one to make money, is fine.

But that is not the regular case. The common case for most investors is, in the long run, a loosing game.

All I'm saying is for people to try to understand the "game" they're playing on and to stop blame the market every time a situation happens that they don't understand.

You're wrong if you think TSLA (or any very liquid equity) is a manipulated stock. It isn't.

I don't want to pretend I know it all. I don't and I know this discussion will be a lost of time for me.

A small advise to you is to not fight the trend.

Best of luck
 
Sure. If you win more money than you loose, it works and that's ok.

Any strategy that makes one to make money, is fine.

But that is not the regular case. The common case for most investors is, in the long run, a loosing game.

All I'm saying is for people to try to understand the "game" they're playing on and to stop blame the market every time a situation happens that they don't understand.

You're wrong if you think TSLA (or any very liquid equity) is a manipulated stock. It isn't.

I don't want to pretend I know it all. I don't and I know this discussion will be a lost of time for me.

A small advise to you is to not fight the trend.

Best of luck

So it sounds to me that you're an Elliot Wave practitioner. What's your target for our current bear trend? My working hypothesis is that we are in Wave 4, with a bottom around 280-290. If it breaks below that then it violates the rules for Wave 4, which implies to me we are still in Wave 1. However, this can be questionable because with the initial series of Motive Waves in 2013-2014, what looked to be the ideal Wave 4 seemed to violate the rules (Curt Renz had asked Prechter about this and he equivocated as well). I tried to reconcile this with a combination pattern to get to our current motive cycle. Curious as to your thoughts... assuming you are an Elliot Wave practitioner.
 
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If investors don't use "news" to inform whether it's time to buy or sell a stock, then what do they use?

For value investment, use intrinsic value as your guide. For growth investment, see if the stock still fits your selection criteria plus valuation.

What you described is trading not investment, there are lots of trading lessons and trading rules. For trading the most important rule is you need to have a sound plan including a loss control mechanism, pay attention to technical indicators and business development. Relying on news is not a good way to make money in trading. Because there are huge amount of computer programs that act much faster than human traders. Also manipulators make up "news" to hurt you.
 
fwiw, HFTAlert's Accumulator software indicated somewhat strong, near continuous dark pool selling pressure all day long. (intensified however after ~11am)

That's not to say today was devoid of shorts - first couple hours showed typical signs of dark pool trading/shorting (sell spike followed by slower recovery (covering) of same # of shares, or moderate buying (covering), followed by rapid dumping of same # of shares). Both cases I commonly see occur when stops get run, which is a handy way to cause a snowball effect of selling, followed by covering at the bottom.

On a positive note, bid strengthened notably in the last 15 minutes, though that could've been simply algos anticipating green tomorrow.

Unfortunately the 13F that might lend insight is many, many months off. My hunch is whoever is responsible will be issuing a downgrade shortly after they finish selling...
 
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fwiw, HFTAlert's Accumulator software indicated somewhat strong, near continuous dark pool selling pressure all day long. (intensified however after ~11am)

On a positive note, bid strengthened notably in the last 15 minutes, though that could've been simply algos anticipating green tomorrow.

Unfortunately the 13F that might lend insight is many, many months off. My hunch is whoever is responsible will be issuing a downgrade shortly after they finish selling...

TSLA only? Or most tech stocks as well. Looked to me that almost all big NASDAQ stocks showed a markedly similar pattern. Does the software also look at ETFs?
 
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