What Tesla lacks is big institutional investors either coming in or accumulating massively. Tesla should already be worth 80B by now. Uber is worth 68B.
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What Tesla lacks is big institutional investors either coming in or accumulating massively. Tesla should already be worth 80B by now. Uber is worth 68B.
Price action yesterday (and today) are largely unsurprising. After any big product launch the stock falls. Happened with Apple all the time. Happens with Tesla all the time. Like clockwork, almost.
My view is ER is going to be terrible. Everything they can possibly say with regards to M3 they have already said. Tesla/Musk will not be able to give any more clarity on the ramp than they already have. The potential surprise elements could be 1) A potential uptick in S/X orders after the 3 final reveal. It might be too early for them to say anything though. Also, nobody knows if it will be an uptick or a downtick for the S 2) ZEV sales
I don't think market will say 'the bad news is past us, so lets get back to the uptrend". For that to happen the uncertainty should go down. But I don't think that will happen. The production ramp is uncertain. The financials will remain very depressed until a full ramp completion. Net Margins even after the full ramp are largely uncertain.
All in all, my speculation is the price will stay flat or go down.
Not advice. I'm myself not doing anything special for the ER. Speculating for fun.
My view is ER is going to be terrible. Everything they can possibly say with regards to M3 they have already said. Tesla/Musk will not be able to give any more clarity on the ramp than they already have. The potential surprise elements could be 1) A potential uptick in S/X orders after the 3 final reveal. It might be too early for them to say anything though. Also, nobody knows if it will be an uptick or a downtick for the S 2) ZEV sales
I don't think market will say 'the bad news is past us, so lets get back to the uptrend". For that to happen the uncertainty should go down. But I don't think that will happen. The production ramp is uncertain. The financials will remain very depressed until a full ramp completion. Net Margins even after the full ramp are largely uncertain.
All in all, my speculation is the price will stay flat or go down.
Not advice. I'm myself not doing anything special for the ER. Speculating for fun.
Indeed, derisking ahead of the earnings report is likely a consideration weighing on TSLA today. Poor July sales reports from competitors today could also be negatively affecting TSLA shares, although the TSLA share price is currently down by less than half the percentage of GM or F. And Elon's twitter responses about his emotional highs and lows may not be helping. However that could be seen as a plus factor that drives him to achieve
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MartinAustin
Active Member
$316 up to $323 and back into the green... nice fight back!
It's weird to see such buying, a day before the earnings report. Someone (or some people) must think the Q2 results are worth buying today.
It's weird to see such buying, a day before the earnings report. Someone (or some people) must think the Q2 results are worth buying today.
You're very ignorant. That's called "momentum trading". Some people can do it competently, but there are much better methods of investing.
Momentum traders often get slaughtered, because there are standard methods of fleecing them which are used by brokers and market manipulators of various sorts.
Those of us discussing the psychology of the manipulators are not doing momentum trading. Please be quiet and let the adults talk.
bdy0627
Active Member
Or did shorts pile in causing the earlier dip and now covering so they can repeat the process?
Model X , the most difficult car in the world to build, required at least six months before it reached
The top of the S production curve.
Model 3, was designed to be the easiest car to manufacture. How long will this take to
Ramp to at least 2500 cars per week? Anybody venture to guess.
I am guessing 2500 per week is the minimum number of cars to break even .
The top of the S production curve.
Model 3, was designed to be the easiest car to manufacture. How long will this take to
Ramp to at least 2500 cars per week? Anybody venture to guess.
I am guessing 2500 per week is the minimum number of cars to break even .
Waiting4M3
Active Member
maybe the perceived lackluster delivery event took all the air out of all the supposed volatility this week, at least before Q2ER, and even Q2ER is already widely expected to be disappointing, so there is no "buy the rumor sell the news" type of run-up then crash. Maybe the market is just doing what it always does, disappoint people. "Oh you're expecting volatility? guess what, nothing for you"
ValueAnalyst
Closed
No, I don't think so. Papafox is the specialist on the patterns of behavior in the TSLA market, but here's my take:
There are a whole lot of long-term investors who are ready to buy with both hands when the stock drops below their target levels, and their target levels are in the $290-$340 range: a very large number move in below $320.
Short-termers are selling off in anticipation of bad earnings reports and momentum traders are amplifying this, but below a certain level the long-term accumulators start moving in, and there are a *lot* of them (us?).
I have run a lot of different valuation models and they give a lot of different numbers, but the conservative ones do tend to cluster in that $280-$340 area: my models aren't complicated and I'm sure other people controlling much larger amounts of money are making similar models. This happened once before, last year, when I calculated a "definitely buy below this price" level and discovered that a lot of other people in the TSLA market seemed to have exactly the same idea, causing it to act as a floor. (It's much nicer when I calculate that price and it's way over the current price, as happened in 2013 -- I really didn't invest enough back then.)
So you're thinking that manipulators (of whatever sort) are taking money from people who set stops?
Or that the dark pools represent an institution unloading? (Or both?) (There are some institutions -- mostly the crooked megabanks -- which I've been *expecting* to unload TSLA, because they're notorious short-termers.)
I figured out as a kid that stop-loss orders were basically invitations for the brokers to take money out of your pocket, but it seems that people still use them. I suppose this is because so many people are traders rather than investors.
I think Tesla will hold SG&A down in 2018. Why do you think they won't?
The fact is that they're holding SG&A -- and even R&D -- down significantly more than is commercially appropriate, with a shortage of service centers in vital locations and a lack of attention to model S & X software. But that's what they are actually doing. Tesla is probably going to show a profit in 2018.
I'm going to subtly dispute this. I will suggest that the big institutional investors in Tesla are simply more value-conscious and price-sensitive than the kinds of idiots who would invest in Uber. I think that whenever TSLA starts to drop significantly and bounces on high volume, we are watching those price-sensitive institutions accumulating.
adding a log on this fire...
I use a similar method (with macro influences) for trading Core shares into DITM LEAPS (and vise versa).
Based on my model, I did this in recent dip at SP $308, $315, and $325 - Currently would do more at $310 -
It would require $360-$390 to gradually convert them back to Common (dependent on macro events as yet undefined)
Why exactly don't I have a separate account that buys the dip every morning? Why doesn't everyone?
'cause I'm a dip-sh*t
just buy the f--- dip
Reciprocity
Active Member
Only thing I can see is deliveries for July are out on Inside EV. Not off the charts, but not bad either:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
X is showing some real legs now. I typically compare the same month in the prior quarter and the same month in the prior year. S+X is up though S is down and X is up pretty solidly. I expect X to continue to grow at a higher rate then S lags.
MartinAustin
Active Member
When I click on your link, there are no numbers in the July column. It looks like the June report.
EDIT the problem is only in Chrome... weird. I can see the correct numbers using Edge.
EDIT #2 If InsideEVs' information is anything to go by (and that is a BIG caveat), Tesla increased U.S. deliveries by 15% over last year - including the 30 Model 3s. Not the usual spectacularness we're used to.
EDIT the problem is only in Chrome... weird. I can see the correct numbers using Edge.
EDIT #2 If InsideEVs' information is anything to go by (and that is a BIG caveat), Tesla increased U.S. deliveries by 15% over last year - including the 30 Model 3s. Not the usual spectacularness we're used to.
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