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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Cycle 3. Up in Nov
Be aware though not all strikes roll out at once. Far OTM are often delayed
And IVs are often elevated initially.
Depending on events of course, it sometimes pays to wait a month or two while holding the position intended in J19s.
Not always the case, but just offering that consideration.
Don't LEAP before you LOOK

Thank you for this. How are companies classified into different cycles?
 
My take is that the market is anticipating three possible black swan events, removal of the President from office, shut down of the Government over debt limit vote, and the usual fall sell-off following a bull run. The more volatile stocks with the largest gains (i.e., TSLA) are most vulnerable. Not expecting any positive news for Tesla until the semi reveal in about 5 weeks. For those of us trading TSLA, it might be a good time to move to the sidelines and watch for a while.
 
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Gotta be. TSLA turned negative technically late last week so shorts are probably pouncing now, aided by a very strong push at the gate. Who would have guessed a 3+% drop today after all of the carnage last week???

Personally, I don't think this is over. Unless we get some positive news I can see a trending down until there is clear evidence that the model 3 ramp is going well, the semi reveal and/or another (new) GF announcement.

Now, I have been a contrary indicator before so take the above for what it is worth...one person's opinion.

EDIT: This is also a stock that day traders seem to like. You can drive the SP down during the morning and sell it for a profit later in the day as many have pointed out. Now, there will be days when it does not work but the pattern seems to hold most days recently.
 
I've been holding onto the additional shares I picked up in July, so I'll wait for SP to drop further before I'm a buyer again.

I'm a buyer at $320, absent any fundamental news (e.g. Model 3 delay) or major macro/political developments.

My take is that the market is anticipating three possible black swan events, removal of the President from office, shut down of the Government over debt limit vote, and the usual fall sell-off following a bull run. The more volatile stocks with the largest gains (i.e., TSLA) are most vulnerable. Not expecting any positive news for Tesla until the semi reveal in about 5 weeks. For those of us trading TSLA, it might be a good time to move to the sidelines and watch for a while.

Personally, I don't think this is over. Unless we get some positive news I can see a trending down until there is clear evidence that the model 3 ramp is going well, the semi reveal and/or another (new) GF announcement.

Now, I have been a contrary indicator before so take the above for what it is worth...one person's opinion.

Cautionary calls are piling up again.
 
My take is that the market is anticipating three possible black swan events, removal of the President from office, shut down of the Government over debt limit vote, and the usual fall sell-off following a bull run. The more volatile stocks with the largest gains (i.e., TSLA) are most vulnerable. Not expecting any positive news for Tesla until the semi reveal in about 5 weeks. For those of us trading TSLA, it might be a good time to move to the sidelines and watch for a while.
I think this is just another one of those times where some C-Level employee mentioned something to their wife who then went to hot Yoga class, and that one of the other wives in the class just happened to be the wife of some C-Level investment house broker, and she in turn told her husband and he then traded on the info. I'm convinced this is why we see these seemingly "unexplained movements" weeks/months in advance so that when they do happen, we all wonder what news triggered it.
 
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