2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Chickenlittle]

I've been trolling here for quite a while. Been hesitant to post while I held a short position. Haha.

I'm a retired software exec and right now I run my own money. I have a small shop with 2 analysts. We use and interesting combination of technical analysis and sentiment data we mine and process from the web.

The sentiment had gotten so bad we covered our short yesterday when the 200 day held. Got in a half position at 325 today. Will add another half position once we get a close over the 100 day. Hard stop at 310 for Thursday. Looking for 475 sometime in Q2.

Would have really liked to have seen 290 before today just too get as many folks trapped as possible, but there is still enough short interest to push this to ATH by year end. Right now Tesla isn't a tech company, it isn't an energy company, it is just a Model 3 company. Results form the quarter won't matter good or bad. Just a little reassurance production is on track and its back to the races.

Longer term (24-36 months) I do think the common gets wiped out, but not for the reasons any of the bears think.

GLTA

boy you sure are so smart. bet the future is so bright you have to wear shades. you know so much and do so well we should soon see you on the Forbes list.<===MODERATOR WARNING: This despicable reply as a welcome to a new member is being left up here as a warning to all: COMPLETELY un-called for and any such repetition will be dealt with extreme prejudice.

 

[Words of HABIT]

"Build it and they will come."

 

[Krugerrand]

I just want more cowbell (and maybe a unicorn sighting), but mostly cowbell.

 

[sunhelm]

So 5 for 5, the seasonality chart consistently shows October SP lower than prior month. This, plus news of end of quarter window dressing that we hear from mutual funds at this time makes this info a tradeable nugget. And now that I've put these into words and with my luck, it will likely reverse course next year!

 

[AlMc]

Meh I wouldn't be so sure about those " smart shorts ". Those " smart shorts " that are now taking profits after shorting when the SP was at ATH, could be the same that will short TSLA when it will reach 420, and they will get real burnt because it might quickly run up to 500...


It's all a matter of perspective and time.

Those shorts were saying the same things about longs buying at $380 a few weeks ago

Worth repeating: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

 

[SBenson]

Five Things Wall Street Wants to Know About Tesla’s Model 3

Guidance for tomorrow’s Q&A

 

[myusername]

TSLA --- ALWAYS --- returns to max pain during ERs... ALWAYS... just typically not before the ER. it usually happens within 60 seconds of the report release. yesterday's max pain was $330... today's: $327.50. also... TSLA typically sells off prior to ER because everyone know's it's going to suck in terms of financials... then it rubber-bands into an overblown recovery...

but now it's already been bought back up... a little atypical... I wonder if tomorrow will be a little atypical.

 

[Chickenlittle]

boy you sure are so smart. bet the future is so bright you have to wear shades. you know so much and do so well we should soon see you on the Forbes list.<===MODERATOR WARNING: This despicable reply as a welcome to a new member is being left up here as a warning to all: COMPLETELY un-called for and any such repetition will be dealt with extreme prejudice.

Definition of prejudice

• 1.
  preconceived opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience.
  "English prejudice against foreigners"
  synonyms: preconceived idea, preconception, prejudgment
  "male prejudices about women"

 

[ggr]

Definition of prejudice

• 1.
  preconceived opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience.
  "English prejudice against foreigners"
  synonyms: preconceived idea, preconception, prejudgment
  "male prejudices about women"

"extreme prejudice" is a euphemism from Apocalypse Now, basically meaning "kill". I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

 

[dmckinstry]

Does our exit at $365 in August qualify us as smart longs ?

It would, if you bought back 14+% as many shares as you sold.

 

[dmckinstry]

shto znachet doji?

Ya nye znayoo(sp?).

 

[dalalsid]

TSLA --- ALWAYS --- returns to max pain during ERs... ALWAYS... just typically not before the ER. it usually happens within 60 seconds of the report release. yesterday's max pain was $330... today's: $327.50. also... TSLA typically sells off prior to ER because everyone know's it's going to suck in terms of financials... then it rubber-bands into an overblown recovery...

but now it's already been bought back up... a little atypical... I wonder if tomorrow will be a little atypical.

No numbers ending in 6. What is this rubbish?

 

[Starno]

Those shorts were saying the same things about longs buying at $380 a few weeks ago

Worth repeating: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

I agree.
Though it's worth noting that you can't say someone who bought at 380 and now regrets it is a long ....
I mean unless it doesn't cross back those 380 in the next 12 months or so

 

[Thumper]

I remember their answer, but not the words. Now I'm forgetting words, especially nou...s.

I get the declining immediate access to the noun file. George Burns said that first we forget names, then we forget faces, then we forget to zip up, then we forget to zip down! I imagine a game I call geriatric jeopardy. You buzz in and then get 36 hours to remember the answer. Right answers are a bit flexible. If the answer is Kawalski, and you say Kaminski, that is close enough, right firs letter, right last syllable, and the right number of syllables.

 

[Macro Slayer]

Could you elaborate a bit on those reasons?

I think we are at the tail end of the current business cycle with a recession looming. There are a lot of tells and this can all be debated. In my mind the fact that the super cycle bond bull market has come to an end is the biggest tell. My thinking is just simply, if Tesla isn't FCF positive by the time the bond markets start to move, the downside risk of being cut off is quite severe. Dilution in a macro bear market when liquidity has dried up will be crippling.

I hope none of this happens and this current business cycle could very well hum along for quite some time. Tesla could also become cash flow positive sooner than anyone thinks and in effect self funding.

The canary in the coal mine would be if any of Tesla's current bond issuance start trading substantially under par. Right now for example, the TSLA 5.300% 15Aug2025 Corp trades at 97.500 which is quite normal and where it probably should be. As long as I am in this trade I will mostly just check the bond information. If it get's below 94.500 then I would take notice, other than that the share price takes care of itself.

 

[elasalle]

Some one posted a while back about what a "Care Bear" is ... any one have a link to it?

 

[ram1901]

Anyone know what happened to Tesla's 3rd quarter conference call. Waited on line for hours and no results.
Also checked Tesla's Corporate site for investor letter which would contain the 3rd quarter results and there is nothing.
Wonder if there was an emergency board meeting?

 

[Navin]

Anyone know what happened to Tesla's 3rd quarter conference call. Waited on line for hours and no results.
Also checked Tesla's Corporate site for investor letter which would contain the 3rd quarter results and there is nothing.
Wonder if there was an emergency board meeting?

No Elon eloped with amber to mars.

 

[elasalle]

Anyone know what happened to Tesla's 3rd quarter conference call. Waited on line for hours and no results.
Also checked Tesla's Corporate site for investor letter which would contain the 3rd quarter results and there is nothing.
Wonder if there was an emergency board meeting?

It's tomorrow.
Events & Presentations | Tesla Motors

 

[AlMc]

I agree.
Though it's worth noting that you can't say someone who bought at 380 and now regrets it is a long ....
I mean unless it doesn't cross back those 380 in the next 12 months or so

Ok. I will change the word 'long' to 'buyer' since someone shorting would be a 'seller'