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McMountain
Member
So - November 2017 may be what was planned for September 2017 - 1.500 Model 3 produced and we are 2 months behind?
Pretty much what was disclosed in various unofficial ways.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I wouldn't say we've necessarily just shifted 2 months down the x axis of that production curve.
It could be that Tesla has maxed out the "manual" assembly rate until the new automated equipment comes online, or it could be that the equipment is now in place and they're starting to ramp up.
If the former, then there are still big question marks. If the latter, then yes it's probably more like a shift.
My gut feeling is that Elon will Tweet something when the module assembly area is back in good shape. I don't get the feeling we're there quite yet.
Should also add that this delay may have given other potential bottlenecks the time to ramp their rates up, in which case once the module assembly is back up they may be able to catch up for some lost time--especially since they said the new design will allow higher production rates.
Ultimately, there are still way too many unknowns to speculate.
Love that news but we should be careful to be too fast with conclusions and claiming victory.
Even the second VIN batch they registered a while ago has not been touched yet as far as we know. Highest VIN seen is still 1099.
There may be underlying reasons for that that we all don't know. Production cars on the road are increasing but not yet in the dramatic way I want to see it. In other words the correlation between VINs sightings and VIN registrations seem to be low.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
It's too early to tell, but currently we've seen VINs in the wild in the range up to 1134, ie the cut off from the first block of VIN registrations. Maybe a coincidence but something to watch for.
I think, there's 2 thing to think about :
- The process isn't linear it's exponential
- When there's an issue it slows things down in an EXTREME way.
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So from those 2 points, what I can deduce is that it's hard to say we're 2 months away,because it's a week to week matter, it's not like " we slowly progress our way up.. 1,2,3,4;.... ". It's more like " boom this is resolved, production ramp goes from 2 to 12 directly ....".
And about the second point : as long as something doesn't work we're not going : 12,13,14 in a slow way ". We're staying at 12 as long as the issue isn't resolved.
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Conclusion : We might be 3 weeks away all the way up to 12 weeks or more.
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Agree. In particular vin assignments per se only indicate there is something more than BIW to which the number can be assigned. For all practical purposes it is essentially a fully specified production item, that’s all. Still there has been a high historical correlation between vin assignment, production and, in Tesla terms anyway, delivery.
We do not know the time lags between:
Specification,
Vin assignment,
Production start,
Production completion,
Shipping,
Delivery preparation,
Delivery.
Seven steps, more or less. Most of us seem to be implicitly assuming that there is, at the moment, less than a month between the first and last step. That is probably reasonable for Fremont deliveries. The longer the distance the more time required.
So, for now we count vins!
Just a quick note. MBS is a mortgage backed security. Autos fall under ABS or asset backed security.
Also, the ABS market is just too small to have the same impact on the economy as MBS did in 08
Speculate? That's what we do here. If you look closely on TMC I'm sure you could find the effect on M3 deliveries from the announcement of the new Lord of the Rings tv series.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Might be worth questioning his characterization of the forum at that time. Yes there were a few excessively exuberant posters but plenty of people were still grounded in reality. The slower ramp is no surprise.
bdy0627
Active Member
This is my assessment as well. I also agree that EM will tweet when the ramp hits liftoff mode.
I did read now from 2 independent sources that non Tesla Employee or relatives configuration started: I Got My Invite!
that would be awesome ....
that would be awesome ....
jeewee3000
Active Member
In the Q3 2017 Earnings Call Elon did guess that the production s-curve shifted 3 months down the line.
This was of course a wild guess (which he repeated a gazillion times, the well-known s-curve comments), but considering Elon's usual optimism on schedules, I'd rephrase the Earnings Call as "production has shifted at least 3 months down the line". I think the market has made the same assumption. This 3 months shift is already priced in the current SP.
A more positive outcome will be a pleasant surprise, leading to a SP rally. A more negative outcome will have the opposite effect.
Not an advice.
This was of course a wild guess (which he repeated a gazillion times, the well-known s-curve comments), but considering Elon's usual optimism on schedules, I'd rephrase the Earnings Call as "production has shifted at least 3 months down the line". I think the market has made the same assumption. This 3 months shift is already priced in the current SP.
A more positive outcome will be a pleasant surprise, leading to a SP rally. A more negative outcome will have the opposite effect.
Not an advice.
If it is really open, we should have other people getting the email too... the first batch.
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