2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[RiverCard]

Good news, bad news. Both may be below the radar.
Berner court falls groundbreaking Tesla verdict driver is himself to blame for the crash
Berner Gericht fällt wegweisendes Tesla-Urteil: Fahrer ist selber schuld am Crash

How To Cars reveals: suspected subsidy fraud at Tesla
30.11.2017 - 13:00

Hamburg (ots) - charge of consumer deception and unfair competition / Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) examines the case
AUTO BILD deckt auf: Verdacht auf Subventionsbetrug bei Tesla

 

[MitchJi]

I really like the content of this review of the M3 and the podcast format:

81 – 1,000 Miles with Model 3

We do a deep dive into living with the Model 3 for two weeks and over 1,000 miles. Caleb drove the Model 3 from Palo Alto to LA and back and lived with it for two weeks. We discuss everything about the vehicle from Autopilot, to the interior, to ergonomics to the UI, and more.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

How To Cars reveals: suspected subsidy fraud at Tesla
30.11.2017 - 13:00

Hamburg (ots) - charge of consumer deception and unfair competition / Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) examines the case
AUTO BILD deckt auf: Verdacht auf Subventionsbetrug bei Tesla

Tesla "cheated" so that their consumer can get state subsidies for their clean cars?

Sounds like the exact opposite of the VW scandal to me

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla "cheated" so that their consumer can get state subsidies for their clean cars?

Sounds like the exact opposite of the VW scandal to me

One complaint was that Tesla would ship a car with features the consumer did not pay for and that was unfair to the competition. HAHA! Wait, is discounting unfair to Tesla because they do not do it? I thought it was pretty much well known that Tesla created the software locked 60 to sell for less in places like this with weird incentives. Then consumer could unlock the 75 at anytime.

 

[Janto]

Unethical or not ... this could actually create a short term rise in sales in Germany. I'm sure that would be quite the opposite of what autobild intended, but it might infact be great timing.

 

[MitchJi]

Apple doesn't break out many of its individual products, and there is always rumors certain model (Apple Watch) is a flop, or demand (iPad) is falling off a cliff, but Apple as a whole does just fine. As we've learned, Tesla can pull people off of Truck, to work on M3, or on Powerpacks, so I think the concern over some products not being as "popular" as other products really have no material impact on Tesla, as a whole they can not meet demand across all their product lines. If semi doesn't sell 100K units a year and somehow Tesla overstaffed it, they have more than enough work on other projects for anyone who's not overloaded on semi project.

If you believe like I do, that Tesla is going to disrupt the entire >700 billion dollar logistics industry it would be great to be able to see the signs of that in advance.

That should also be a great boost to the SP

 

[Reciprocity]

Unethical or not ... this could actually create a short term rise in sales in Germany. I'm sure that would be quite the opposite of what autobild intended, but it might infact be great timing.

Its not unethical to instruct customers to order a certain spec to quality for government incentives. Its smart and ethical and really their job. What would not be ethical is if they lied and said they could get the credit no matter what features they purchased or submitted cars that did not qualify.

 

[MitchJi]

It is very deliberate. Quote from the Q3 earnings call:

Romit Jitendra Shah - Nomura Instinet

Okay. And if I could ask, you said that the deposit balance for Model 3 strengthened. Can you give us what that actual balance was?

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

We don't give specific balance of – for deposits by car line. We just give the combined number, which you can see on our balance sheet for customer deposits.

It’s deliberate, but subject to change if they believe that they have a good reason for disclosure. For example at first they made the M3 numbers public.

 

[MitchJi]

We had the “refresh” discussion before on assumed circumstancial evidence, but turned out to be false...

False so far.

It’s dfinitely going to happen IMO sooner rather than later.

 

[dandurston]

Its not unethical to instruct customers to order a certain spec to quality for government incentives. Its smart and ethical and really their job. What would not be ethical is if they lied and said they could get the credit no matter what features they purchased or submitted cars that did not qualify.

My understanding of the Germany subsidies, is that if a single version of that car is available for less than the threshold, then all of the versions of that car are eligible for the subsidy. It's structured this way to reward affordable EVs, without making adding options untenable.

So the argument in that article is that Tesla pretended to be offering a sub-threshold variant, but this cheap version didn't actually exist because if you ordered it, Tesla would inform you that the supposedly optional features were actually mandatory. If Tesla really is unwilling to sell a stripped version for a sub threshold price, then none of the cars sold should have gotten the subsidy - so a lot of cars.

In Tesla's defence, the article basically admits that Tesla did sell at least a few sub threshold variants, because if the buyer dug their heels in when told the supposedly optional features were mandatory, then Tesla would just include them for free. So you couldn't get a car without these features, but you could get a car for less than the threshold.

 

[Reciprocity]

My understanding of the Germany subsidies, is that if a single version of that car is available for less than the threshold, then all of the versions of that car are eligible for the subsidy. It's structured this way to reward affordable EVs, without making adding options untenable.

So the argument in that article is that Tesla pretended to be offering a sub-threshold variant, but this cheap version didn't actually exist because if you ordered it, Tesla would inform you that the supposedly optional features were actually mandatory. If Tesla really is unwilling to sell a stripped version for a sub threshold price, then none of the cars sold should have gotten the subsidy - so a lot of cars.

In Tesla's defence, the article basically admits that Tesla did sell at least a few sub threshold variants, because if the buyer dug their heels in when told the supposedly optional features were mandatory, then Tesla would just include them for free. So you couldn't get a car without these features, but you could get a car for less than the threshold.

Yeah, the article was broken English translation. Even worse then my native broken English, English. Makes sense that it is a bit shady. The downside is that it appears they will potentially lose the incentives. I think this would be counter to the goal of the law, which is to incentive EVs. I think the headline used the words Fraud, I think that is a bit harsh, but we will see. Deceptive or shady, sure, but fraud? There is a much higher bar for that.

 

[RobStark]

The downside is that it appears they will potentially lose the incentives.

Half the "subsidy" had to come from the manufacture while half comes from the government. Then the program was to last ~18 months. I guess they wanted to make sure it ended before Model 3 got to Germany.

 

[avoigt]

Mark Spiegel Quote: "As noted in previous letters, this year’s terrible performance has been primarily due to our short position in Tesla, whereby despite having an overwhelming number of facts on our side (detailed, as usual, below) the stock is up 45% this year."

Stanphly On Tesla's New "Ponzi-powered Roadster " - ValueWalk

 

[erthquake]

I really like the content of this review of the M3 and the podcast format:

81 – 1,000 Miles with Model 3

We do a deep dive into living with the Model 3 for two weeks and over 1,000 miles. Caleb drove the Model 3 from Palo Alto to LA and back and lived with it for two weeks. We discuss everything about the vehicle from Autopilot, to the interior, to ergonomics to the UI, and more.

It really is a good review. Highly recommended listening.

 

[Mkorpal]

Mark Spiegel Quote: "As noted in previous letters, this year’s terrible performance has been primarily due to our short position in Tesla, whereby despite having an overwhelming number of facts on our side (detailed, as usual, below) the stock is up 45% this year."

Stanphly On Tesla's New "Ponzi-powered Roadster " - ValueWalk

Perhaps it is time to get some new facts?

 

[copyhacker]

Perhaps it is time to get some new facts?

Obviously they have alternative facts.

 

[CaliBear1]

I visited the Tesla Fremont Delivery Center this afternoon to see if there was any Model 3 activity. When I visited two months ago when my girlfriend was taking possession of her new S 90 D, there were no Model 3s anywhere to be found. As I approached today, there were no cars on the north side of the building and I feared I would be disappointed. So, I ventured deeper into the property to the back forty. Good Lord, it was Sutter Mill! I had discovered the mother lode. I would estimate around fifty Model 3s. They were interspersed amongst Tesla's other offerings, so a photo wouldn't confirm my guesstimate. I managed to get a few rushed photos before being nudged away by employees. Sorry for the poor quality.

Clearly you can see a blue trend here. However, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to get black and apply the savings toward a protective wrap. I want the prototype silver more than anything else. Happy Holidays everybody!

t

 

[Mkorpal]

I visited the Tesla Fremont Delivery Center this afternoon to see if there was any Model 3 activity. When I visited two months ago when my girlfriend was taking possession of her new S 90 D, there were no Model 3s anywhere to be found. As I approached today, there were no cars on the north side of the building and I feared I would be disappointed. So, I ventured deeper into the property to the back forty. Good Lord, it was Sutter Mill! I had discovered the mother lode. I would estimate around fifty Model 3s. They were interspersed amongst Tesla's other offerings, so a photo wouldn't confirm my guesstimate. I managed to get a few rushed photos before being nudged away by employees. Sorry for the poor quality.

Clearly you can see a blue trend here. However, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to get black and apply the savings toward a protective wrap. I want the prototype silver more than anything else. Happy Holidays everybody!
View attachment 263840 tView attachment 263842 View attachment 263841

I'm feeling more and more confidant that the ramp up is happening. And also feeling more confidant in my decision to buy yesterday's dip. Thanks for this.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I visited the Tesla Fremont Delivery Center this afternoon to see if there was any Model 3 activity. When I visited two months ago when my girlfriend was taking possession of her new S 90 D, there were no Model 3s anywhere to be found. As I approached today, there were no cars on the north side of the building and I feared I would be disappointed. So, I ventured deeper into the property to the back forty. Good Lord, it was Sutter Mill! I had discovered the mother lode. I would estimate around fifty Model 3s. They were interspersed amongst Tesla's other offerings, so a photo wouldn't confirm my guesstimate. I managed to get a few rushed photos before being nudged away by employees. Sorry for the poor quality.

Clearly you can see a blue trend here. However, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to get black and apply the savings toward a protective wrap. I want the prototype silver more than anything else. Happy Holidays everybody!
View attachment 263840 tView attachment 263842 View attachment 263841

I see two notes, one says VIN 1062, one says 1022.

 

[Reciprocity]

Perhaps it is time to get some new facts?

Reading Twitter, this dude has no clue what facts are. He just cusses a lot and says "fraud boy" and "Ponzi scheme" a lot.