I've changed my vote and went up 1 category to 28-29k.S+X should hit 100k this year and judging by how crazy good Q4 has been so far, I think it will. So 26k+ for the big boys as we need that much to get to 100.
For model 3 I am in the 1500-2000 camp on deliveries and hoping for exiting the year at a 1k+/week production rate.
Based on the last few weeks, I think 27,000 S/X and 1,500 M3 should be realistic. And, at the risk of being high on Christmas cakes and sweets, I'll also raise my M3 production rate prediction to 1,500+ per week.
I am really encouraged by the continuous issuance of invitations to configure, thousands of VINs registered on a regular basis (and an increasing number at that!), the flow of M3s in & out of "the parking lot" and that Taiwanese supplier report. None of that alone is super hard evidence, but all of it together is very hard to ignore.