Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2018: Will Tesla US Deliveries Top 1% US Market Share?

2018 Will Tesla US Deliveries Top 1% US Market Share?


  • Total voters
    72
  • Poll closed .
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
So quite a bit more, 1.14% of the 2018 US market for Tesla, that is quite the achievement. For one, the market for gasoline just shrinked as much...

Increasing that level in 2019 will be tough though, a big part of model 3 production will now go oversees. At 400k for the year and about half for the US the increase will be small, but the total market is likely to shrink ;-)

So how much in 2019? 1.3% tops.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: neroden
So quite a bit more, 1.14% of the 2018 US market for Tesla, that is quite the achievement. For one, the market for gasoline just shrinked as much...

Increasing that level in 2019 will be tough though, a big part of model 3 production will now go oversees. At 400k for the year and about half for the US the increase will be small, but the total market is likely to shrink ;-)

So how much in 2019? 1.3% tops.

Probably fairly steady in 2019, as the 3 goes global, but in 2020 Tesla should pass 2% of US sales. If the Y and Pickup go live, they could be 3% and taking the most profitable segment. If they redesign the S & X and reduce the prices 5,000, they could increase the addressable market considerably and increase margins. The model 3 design opens up so much efficiency to the design process, and simultaneously creates new performance capabilities. Perhaps they work with Panasonic to improve the 18650 battery and build a new pack? It seems they are keeping the 18650 to help Panasonic with their return on capital, which has to keep their board happy with tying their future to Tesla, but with the new lines increased productivity, they are going to have to walk away from the sunk costs. Maybe it won't be in 2019, but I think they need to make the move early 2020 at the latest. No one has caught up to the S/X specs yet, but they need to maintain their lead and I think a lot of premium buyers would like 400 miles of range. 75 mph for 4 to 4.5 hours is a great option for long distance drivers.
Maybe Elon would throw even BuddyRoe a bone and make a premium SUV without falcon wings? Redoing the SX production could also allow more common parts and streamlining the production line to open space up for the pickup in Fremont.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: 2virgule5
Final Numbers

upload_2019-1-3_23-49-20.png


U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – December 2018 YTD | GCBC




Total Market was a bit bigger than initially reported elsewhere and they have Tesla US sales a bit higher than insideevs for total of 1.15% US Market Share.