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2020 Price Drop? [Speculation]

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Model Y is not an SUV.

Model Y is more of a CUV, but with more performance and handling. Will cost more than a Model 3, but offer much more interior room, better sightlines, towing capability and option for 7 seats. Gonna sell like popcorn at a movie.

Low income buyers will be looking at the used marketplace, not shopping new. With the Tax deductions mostly gone, the used cars will offer great value. Lower prices, but all the features and performance of new.
 
The average new car in the US is several thousand bucks more than an SR Model 3.

That doesn't mean there aren't both cheaper than average and more expensive than average cars in the world- (otherwise average would be pretty useless data)- but it does mean Tesla sells a car cheaper than average among new cars.

So the idea it's only for "rich" new car buyer just isn't so.

(and course you can get other EVs even cheaper than a Model 3... but many fewer people choose to compared to the model 3)



I mean. Replace EV with any type of new car and that's true. There's nothing magic about EVs in that regard.




Several companies do so.

Hardly anyone buys them compared to Tesla sales.



Quite obviously they are.

They literally can not build cars fast enough to meet 100% of demand for them even at current prices.




My model 3 purchase had 0 to do with the environment.

It was flat out the best car in its class of any kind.

(another way that's obvious is it's outselling everything else in its class by a decent margin- regardless of EV vs ICE)



EV production is, severely, battery limited.

That's not changing quickly regardless of sales incentives.




This is nonsensical.

Tens of millions of new vehicles sell every year that cost more than the Model Y does, including in the same vehicle class.

People aren't magically gonna stop buying cars... and EV makers can't produce enough cars to replace even a double-digit fraction of new car sales anyway... so nothing is likely to be 'saturated' anytime soon.


Could you perhaps be one of the more fortunate people in our country? From what I read here, most of the people posting here are. There are large segments of the population that can't afford to buy any car, and large segments that only can afford a very used car.

Yes, Tesla will sell many millions of vehicles - that's not at issue here. The issue is that a good deal of people today will never be able to afford one. That's all.
 
Could you perhaps be one of the more fortunate people in our country? From what I read here, most of the people posting here are. There are large segments of the population that can't afford to buy any car, and large segments that only can afford a very used car.

Yes, Tesla will sell many millions of vehicles - that's not at issue here. The issue is that a good deal of people today will never be able to afford one. That's all.



Still unclear how this is specific to tesla at all.

Or evs at all.

if you can't afford the average new car, which again costs more than the cheapest Tesla- what does that have to do with Tesla or EVs?


A genuinely poor person can't afford a new Civic either (which is still more expensive than the cheapest new EVs can be BTW)
 
It is not just Tesla that will be making EVs.

They will come from the other manufacturers in all sorts of price range.

Tesla will compete in value. Probably not the cheapest EV available, but the one offering the best technology, range, performance and as an aspirational brand.
 
It is not just Tesla that will be making EVs.

They will come from the other manufacturers in all sorts of price range.

Tesla will compete in value. Probably not the cheapest EV available, but the one offering the best technology, range, performance and as an aspirational brand.

Well said. 3 months ago we ordered a 2020 LeaF SL. We love the model 3 but its not quite the right fit for us. Height (entry exit). not a hatchback and a bunch of other things. None of this is a slur on the Tesla, which is amazing. But Teslas are not the right choice for everyone. As more Tesla models come out they will cover more of the wish list of EV buyers. Frankly I think the model Y will scratch a lot of itches. Looks nice too.
 
Still unclear how this is specific to tesla at all.

Or evs at all.

if you can't afford the average new car, which again costs more than the cheapest Tesla- what does that have to do with Tesla or EVs?


A genuinely poor person can't afford a new Civic either (which is still more expensive than the cheapest new EVs can be BTW)

This has a lot to do with Tesla and EVs. Tesla costs more than the average new car. An SR+ is about $40,000. Add that to the fact that the average new car is still too expensive for most people (i.e. - this is a time where people are going way over their means to buy a car), then Tesla is basically not affordable by the average working person. We're not talking "poor", we're talking "average."

This is not new. Most Ev's are higher priced. What this says to me is that the extremely widespread adoption of EVs will not happen until the cost of EVs can be lowered to meet most incomes. Tesla is undoubtedly a leader in producing EVs - Tesla will sell millions and millions more vehicles, but someone or some car maker has to cater to lower income customers if we are looking to curb vehicle emissions in the near future.

I have no doubts that Tesla can sell lots and lots of Model Ys. I do think that Model 3s and Ys will compete with each other, because they seem (at least from what I have seen) to be very similar vehicles.

I do not see Tesla lowering prices significantly anytime soon. I think Tesla will keep an eye on their bottom line to survive. They can continue as a top-tier EV maker quite nicely. Mercedes and BMW do that for ICE cars really well, and are not suffering.
 
The average new car in the US is several thousand bucks more than an SR Model 3.
Current average new car sold price is 38k*. excluding incentives.

The CHEAPEST Tesla is 39k.

That is the cheapest trim, constituting <20% of sales** of the cheapest model Tesla, which itself represents 40% of all Tesla models produced.***

So fewer than 10% of all Teslas on the road are the cheapest variant. And they still cost more than the average new car price.

There's no way you can spin the Tesla lineup today as anything but a rich persons marque.



*KBB Nov 2019 analysis
**Tesla owner spreadsheet, 5000+ data points
***Tesla IR reports
 
Current average new car sold price is 38k*. excluding incentives.

The CHEAPEST Tesla is 39k.

That is the cheapest trim, constituting <20% of sales** of the cheapest model Tesla, which itself represents 40% of all Tesla models produced.***

So fewer than 10% of all Teslas on the road are the cheapest variant. And they still cost more than the average new car price.

There's no way you can spin the Tesla lineup today as anything but a rich persons marque.



*KBB Nov 2019 analysis
**Tesla owner spreadsheet, 5000+ data points
***Tesla IR reports
Depends on your definition of rich.
 
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Still unclear how this is specific to tesla at all.

Or evs at all.

if you can't afford the average new car, which again costs more than the cheapest Tesla- what does that have to do with Tesla or EVs?


A genuinely poor person can't afford a new Civic either (which is still more expensive than the cheapest new EVs can be BTW)
Tesla’s in particular and EVs in general ARE more expensive. The average car at $36 is less money than the base Model 3. And there are millions of econo boxes cold in the low $20’s and most Sundays I even see new ones as low at $17k. Or half that of a base Tesla. Tesla is worth the premium but let’s not kid ourselves there is a premium.
 
Tesla’s in particular and EVs in general ARE more expensive. The average car at $36 is less money than the base Model 3. And there are millions of econo boxes cold in the low $20’s and most Sundays I even see new ones as low at $17k. Or half that of a base Tesla. Tesla is worth the premium but let’s not kid ourselves there is a premium.

I feel like when the Model Y and Cybertruck release, the used Tesla market will probably expand quite significantly. And since EVs last longer than ICE, I think a lot of lower income families will be able to buy a used Tesla that still has ~90% of it's original range for an affordable price.

Most people don't buy new cars period, they buy used. The user Tesla market just isn't mature yet, give it time.
 
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Current average new car sold price is 38k*. excluding incentives.

The CHEAPEST Tesla is 39k.

No, it's not.

The SR is $35,400.

You have to call or go in-store to order it though.


Tesla’s in particular and EVs in general ARE more expensive. The average car at $36 is less money than the base Model 3.

Again- wrong. $35,400 for the base model 3. You just can't get it from the website- phone or in-store only.


T
And there are millions of econo boxes cold in the low $20’s

And there's EVs available there too. Hell egolfs can be had under 15k with the right deal in the right state.


This has a lot to do with Tesla and EVs. Tesla costs more than the average new car.
]

Again, nope...the base model 3 costs several grand less

Everyone's argument here appears to stem from ignorance of this fact (and ignorance of the even cheaper EVs on the market)



Add that to the fact that the average new car is still too expensive for most people

Which means...your "point" has nothing specific about Tesla or EVs

Since Tesla (hell ALL evs in the country) add up to less than 1% of all new car sales (a LOT less) so they're obviously not the reason new cars are "too expensive"



This is not new. Most Ev's are higher priced.

Also no. Many of the best selling EVs after Tesla are even cheaper than Tesla.... bolt, leaf, egolf, etc...

Deep Discounts On Chevy Bolt - Up To $11,500 Off MSRP

Story about how Bolts dip into the low 20s after federal credits (not counting state credits so potentially UNDER 20 some places)

The leaf STARTS in the high 20s before the full $7500 federal credit (plus any state ones)

$21,000+ off MSRP - 2019 Volkswagen eGolf w/Driver's Assistance Package ( 125 mile EPA range) Final Price: $10,000-$13,500

Thread about getting the eGolf for a final price around 10-13.5k after credits.



What this says to me is that the extremely widespread adoption of EVs will not happen


...until battery production is increased roughly 50-fold at a minimum.

Price being irrelevant until the supply issue is fixed.

EV makers can't produce enough cars now to meet the relatively TINY demand....so they sure as hell can't make NEARLY enough for "widespread" adoption irrespective of price.
 
there was already a big price cut, there will not be one



agree, The Y looks ugly compared to the 3, I dont get the love for SUVs myself so agree, model 3 will still do fine

The trends in suv sales vs sedan say otherwise. I would have taken a y over a 3 because I have a 6 month old and the extra room would be nice. The y will cause the 3 sales to slow down a lot.
 
Again- wrong. $35,400 for the base model 3. You just can't get it from the website- phone or in-store only.
A modern car company with a policy of direct-sales, no-dealership, offers an off-menu trim that can only be purchased by phone or in person...... so what percentage of all teslas are this $35k variety?

Which means...your "point" has nothing specific about Tesla or EVs

Since Tesla (hell ALL evs in the country) add up to less than 1% of all new car sales (a LOT less) so they're obviously not the reason new cars are "too expensive"
he didn't claim Teslas or EVs are the reason why cars are expensive, so I dont know why youre counter-arguing that.

he did claim that (1) new cars are expensive and out of reach for consumers:
this is borne by the facts that average auto loan prices have been increasing*; average loan duration have been increasing*; and the average new car sales price growth outpaces wage growth***
and (2) teslas are expensive compared to the typical car
so can you take a crack at the average sales price of a tesla, compared to the (established) average sales price of all passenger vehicles?
an off-menu, option-less, bare-bones variant isnt going to pull that number down to make your comparison palatable

*edmunds
**edmunds
***postulated, but i would bet on it
 
At the moment Tesla is producing such a small quantity of Model 3's that I doubt we will see any problems with demand once the Model Y comes out. No doubt the Model Y will be more popular. But if Tesla continues to build around 300,000 Model 3's per year it does not seem like they will have much difficulty finding enough buyers throughout the world to purchase them. If North America does not want them, plenty of other countries will. Not every country is enamored with the concept of the SUV.
 
A modern car company with a policy of direct-sales, no-dealership, offers an off-menu trim that can only be purchased by phone or in person......

And not for the first time.

The RWD LR was an off-menu-only item for a while.

FSD was an off-menu-only item for a while.

Hell certain colors have been off-menu only at certain times.

This isn't new for Tesla at all.


so what percentage of all teslas are this $35k variety?

I don't believe Tesla breaks out sales data by trim levels.

Though that has little to do with the fact you can buy a Tesla cheaper than the average new car- a fact people kept denying earlier in the thread.



he didn't claim Teslas or EVs are the reason why cars are expensive, so I dont know why youre counter-arguing that.

because he keeps bringing that up in a thread about ev cars sales and pricing.

If it has nothing to do with EVs specifically I don't see how it's relevant to the actual topic.


he did claim that (1) new cars are expensive and out of reach for consumers:
this is borne by the facts that average auto loan prices have been increasing*; average loan duration have been increasing*; and the average new car sales price growth outpaces wage growth***


Well... no....it's not borne out by those things.

An actual significant drop in new cars sales would bear out that they're increasingly "out of reach" though.

But we haven't seen that.

On the contrary 2019 is looking like it'll end with total new car sales just a bit over 17 million.

Or roughly the same as 2018.

And 2017

And 2016

And 2015.

In fact that number is higher than the average annual sales over the past 25 years.

So it doesn't appear new cars are any more "out of reach" than they have been in the past.

Certainly things like longer terms suggest they may get out of reach eventually- but they're clearly not there yet.

What any of that has to do with EVs, many of which are below average price (and I cited sources for at least 3 NON Tesla EVs below average in addition to the SR Model 3 being below average), is still a mystery.
 
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Tesla never advertised themselves as cheap car company, nor promised 20k cars .. they said they'll introduce 35k and they did it (almost).

If a new car buyer sees the value of EV, they'll buy them, given that the average new car price nationwide today is $38k ... so, it's (almost) average priced car that they are selling.

Model 3 is a potential buy for those new (sedan) car buyers looking at Lexus, BMW, Audi, Acura, Infiniti etc., ... hell, even a well appointed Camry (XLE or XSE trims) will run north of 35k these days.(these may not be significant % of camry sales but they do sell in big numbers).
 
The $35K SR is really a very practical car for many people. While it’s nice to have the long range battery most people really don’t need it. Nor do they “need” autopilot or FSD. My friend bought the SR a few months ago and is thrilled with the car. He paid $35K for it and got back $3,750 federal, $2,500 CA and $1,000 from Edison. That brought the effective purchase price of the car before tax and delivery to under $28K. And he got 5,000 free bonus miles.

There is no way he could have bought a Honda Accord or Toyota Camry for any less than that (other than a very stripped down model maybe), and the overall cost of gas and maintenance over five years would easily exceed that of the Tesla. So while we may not talk about the $35K model here very much, it is a very real option for people looking to meet a certain price point but wanting to get into a Tesla EV.

This is really no different than any other auto manufacturer. I could buy a Toyota Corolla for under $20K, but I could easily spend over $50K for a higher end Toyota vehicle. They have price points to meet a variety of needs. I don’t see how Tesla is any different here, other than maybe not serving the $20K and under market.
 
I ordered an SR. I ran a very detailed cost of ownership analysis and it ended up costing less than a Golf GTI SE ($28k) based on 12-15k mi per year and current gas prices. The GTI has always been a gold standard for an inexpensive, fun to drive yet practical car. I was surprised the Tesla was cheaper long-term but after 3yrs in an eGolf and the ridiculously low cost of ownership, EVs (even Tesla Model 3s) are not just for rich folks.
 
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I ordered an SR. I ran a very detailed cost of ownership analysis and it ended up costing less than a Golf GTI SE ($28k) based on 12-15k mi per year and current gas prices. The GTI has always been a gold standard for an inexpensive, fun to drive yet practical car. I was surprised the Tesla was cheaper long-term but after 3yrs in an eGolf and the ridiculously low cost of ownership, EVs (even Tesla Model 3s) are not just for rich folks.

I just got into a "discussion" with some co workers today about this topic actually. We were talking about the cybertruck (we all think it looks ridiculous), and I said something like "I think that the cybertruck will likely be bought by rich californians in california (note, we are all in california while having this discussion), and he replied, "oh you mean like all teslas?".

Then we proceeded to get into an argument about whether I (and /or most tesla owners ) are "Affluent". He was talking about the price of a new tesla and saying most people cant afford that, and I kept saying "replace the word "tesla" with "car" and you will be more correct there. He also kept saying that "if you ask people in the middle of the country what a rich person car brand is, they would say tesla" and I replied "and BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Audi, Porsche".

Then he started in on "people without homes dont own teslas, and no one outside of california buys those cars" and I said "its true that california sells a large percentage of them, but they are bought by people all over the country" . he actually said "Like WHERE???" as if no one in any state but california had bought a tesla. He then grudgingly admitted "I am sure a "couple" of people buy teslas in other states".

Then he started in on the fact that I was "affluent" because I had a house, and could afford to drive a tesla and my wife has a BMW". I told him, I think we have a different definition of "affluent". He went back to the "most people cant afford new teslas" and I said "most people cant afford new CARS, and the cost of the average new car is the price of the base model tesla". Then he says "well, yours is like 100k right? (I have a model 3P purchased last december). I said, no, it was 69k+ taxes and fees., he said " well thats close enough, its almost 100k". I said "I got 12k in rebates and credits off the price, so it was like 66k all in after everything, thats not "almost 100k". Its not cheap, but now we are talking about the highest trim model 3... the base model is 35,400 before taxes and fees, which is the price of a nice camry or accord.

I also told him that "I choose to spend money that I dont spend on other things, on the cars I drive... I dont take vacations, I almost never eat out, and I my "nice house" (which is admittedly a nice house) is a 40 mile commute each way away from work, and I commute an hour and 15 minutes each way to afford it". Im in southern california, but the above description applies to a ton of people in northern california too.

He then goes on "people in my apartment complex, there are no teslas, but plenty of BMWs, mercedes.. people in apartments cant own tesla, its a rich homeowners car".... I said "yes they do... I wouldnt, personally, as home charging is one of the best things about owing the car, but people absolutely do buy this car and use superchargers etc"

This is a younger person too.. mid 20s (im in my 50s). There is so much misinformation about tesla, and tesla owners.


Sorry for the rant, it was a frustrating conversation that I ended up not being able to get out of.
 
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Most people have never taken the time to really look into the prices and TCO of a Tesla so they speak from a position of ignorance. I would guess that for the people who have taken the time to test drive a Model 3, and understand all of the costs and potential savings in gas and maintenance, that a significant percentage move forward and buy them. But doing this research takes some time and effort, and a lot of people are just too lazy or indifferent to take the time to look into it before making a purchasing decision.

These are the same people who tell me they don’t want a Costco membership because they don’t need 25 gallons of mayonnaise. It drives me nuts to talk to them so I don’t bother any more.