March 20th 2023 - Model Y Price Cuts [Hypothetical Scenario]

[Sunshine Speed]

(moderator note)

Further discussion on pricing (speculation, discussion on price drop, etc) can take place in the stickied thread that has been dedicated for that purpose, which is here:

Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

(moderator note) This will now be "the" price drop discussion / price speculation thread in the model Y subforum. It has been stickied to be found easier, and other threads on this topic will be locked and pointed to this one. ====================== It looks like the price of the MY just...

teslamotorsclub.com

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When Tesla is trying to close the quarter strong in March 2023, Austin factory will be ramping Model Y output even higher.
Maybe the Federal EV tax incentive will still be $7500 for Model Y during all of March. Still need to be under $55K for MSRP with hardware options for 5-seater Model Y.
Possible price cuts for late March will be :
Model Y Performance - $54K, reduced by $3K from January level. This is like a $10K price drop because the Y Performance will qualify for federal tax credit for the first time.
Model Y LR AWD - $50K, reduced by $3K from January level. (Normal 2170 battery pack). This enables more 5-seat colors/interiors/wheels to qualify for the tax credit.
Model Y SR AWD - $46K, reduced by $5K from January level (4680 battery packs from Austin). Reflecting the steep ramp up and higher output from Austin.

Subtract $7500 from each price if you qualify for the federal EV tax credit, and another $2000 for people in California getting CVRP rebate.

 

[Watts_Up]

@Sunshine Speed , so would you recommend waiting late March to order a Model Y?

Note: Is it possible to order now a Model Y (SR RWD, SR AWD, LR AWD, P ) with 4680 Cells?

 

[Sunshine Speed]

@Sunshine Speed , so would you recommend waiting late March to order a Model Y?

Note: Is it possible to order now a Model Y (SR RWD, SR AWD, LR AWD, P ) with 4680 Cells?

If you want the lowest price, then YES I recommend to wait until late March for lowest price. Reasons are:
1) We know that Tesla will sell the Model Y under $55K to qualify for tax credit. So it can't go over that price.
2) Demand and prices for cars are falling across every country around the world, along with costs for raw materials.
3) Tesla is ramping up Model Y production.

On the other side, we think that new hardware and cameras for full self driving are coming, which could raise prices. And we know that federal tax credit could get cut in half to $3750, although I think it's unlikely.

Regarding the 4680 cars from Austin - you can't order them, but there were hundreds available in Tesla inventory this morning in various states. But now they are all sold out except 2 left. Probably due to $7500 tax credit as their price fell below $55K last night. If you want to look for yourself, go to the ev-cpo website, click Model Y, click New cars, then sort by price. Note that 4680 Y is only built in Austin, and one comes in 1 configuration (SR AWD).

 

[KaptainKloss92]

Any ideas on what new hardware would be included and when that would be? I'm thinking about ordering but on the fence given possible upgrades that might be released during the year.

 

[YW555]

I think the only way another round of price drop would come is if next week's radar announcement confirmed that HW4 + radar as coming out for Model Y later this year.

 

[Ray_R]

Keep in mind if you wait until mid or end of March to order a car, it probably won’t be delivered until after March 31, and the tax credit could be changing then. The credit is calculated at time of delivery, not order date.

 

[sairambabloooo]

I think the only way another round of price drop would come is if next week's radar announcement confirmed that HW4 + radar as coming out for Model Y later this year.

is there a scheduled event for an announcement next week?

 

[vishnumrao]

I believe all of this is pure speculation. Or maybe OP has a large position shorting TSLA.

 

[YW555]

Yes, Tesla themselves confirmed that they'll announce something regarding HD Radar in "mid-January": Tesla appears to be turning back to radar for its vehicles

 

[vishnumrao]

I recall seeing that. But is that planned for an event / announcement? I thought it was going to be a silent change.

 

[sairambabloooo]

I recall seeing that. But is that planned for an event / announcement? I thought it was going to be a silent change.

That is what I understood from FCC letter

 

[rk518y]

A possible other outcome, what if the irs changes the weight rule allowing the Y 5 seat config into the 80k price cap which it was originally thought to be apart of and Tesla raises the prices. I hope im wrong and you’re right but thought this could happen in march as well