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2021 EV Tax Credit

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What is the current assessment of the likelihood of Tesla vehicles again qualifying for the the $7,500 US federal government tax credit or possibly $10,000 if including made in America provision? What purchase/pickup date would one have to have to qualify for the credit? I've seen various thoughts on whether that would be retroactive to late May, the date the legislation passes, or not until January 1, 2022. Assuming it could go into effect in July/August (passing this summer) why would anyone be purchasing a car now unless literally have nothing else to drive, his or her tax liability won't require the credit, certain it will take months to get the car with the increased demand the credit will drive, and/or Tesla will generally raise the price to offset much/all of the credit? I am currently in the 8 - 12 week window (placed M3 order at end of May) and want the car now but can't imagine my frustration if I had waited a couple of weeks/month and would have had a massive tax benefit.
 
Setting up my 2021 taxes and it’s saying my 2021MYP isn’t eligible for any tax credit?? Is this real? I was totally banking on a the 7500 EV credit.

Teslas have not been eligible for ANY "tax credit" since like the middle of 2019 so not sure why you were "totally banking on a 7500 EV credit". Also, expect this thread to be merged with one on tax credits at some point when a mod for this subforum gets around to it, like this one:

 
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"7500 Tax credit" ended in December of 2018. I am not sure how this OP could possibly be expecting this since it has been gone at that level for over 3 full years now. ANY tax credit for tesla was gone by the end of 2019, so over 2 years ago.

its possible that someone mistook all the "tax credit" chatter that people had about hoping it came back for something it wasnt, but I still find it fairly surprising myself that someone would be asking if the fact that teslas do not have a tax credit "is real" and using the universal "shock and surprise" punctuation online of ?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!??!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


(relevant text from the above tesla.com link)
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 3.54.53 PM.png
 
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Tax credit ended in 2019. It was disappointing but not a deal breaker. My only surprise was that the Illinois license renewal went up $100 to $250 for the "gas tax". Enjoy the ride.
Many states are looking into a flat fee or a per mile tax for road usage to replace flagging gas tax revenues that fund roads in a lot of states.

For example in my state:

 
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Many states are looking into a flat fee or a per mile tax for road usage to replace flagging gas tax revenues that fund roads in a lot of states.

For example in my state:

Pay per mile is not the best measure, imo. They will tax you for driving miles outside of their state, if you ever go anywhere else. It’s stupid.
 
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Pay per mile is not the best measure, imo. They will tax you for driving miles outside of their state, if you ever go anywhere else. It’s stupid.

But until there's some reciprocation, the other state isn't charging you for driving there, so you're not losing unless you think the other state would charge less. Or if they do charge you, you should be able to claim it back.

It's good enough.to start with a simple VIN+odometer system. Then hopefully they can refine systems to make it easier to read and handle things like cross-border driving.
 
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Pay per mile is not the best measure, imo. They will tax you for driving miles outside of their state, if you ever go anywhere else. It’s stupid.
Not necessarily.

This could be mitigated with GPS tracking where miles are calculated and bucketed in the state where the tax is enforced and vehicle licensed. It could be done in a privacy-centric way (e.g. not uploading GPS tracks), and could be validated with say a picture of your odometer to make sure you're not disabling or leaving GPS tracking behind somehow and skirting miles driven. The in-state miles becomes your tax obligation, collected next time you renew your annual tabs OR when you initiate a title transfer (solves for the trade-in / selling the car midway through licensing year).

This isn't really a difficult or complicated scheme to solve for using a combination of hardware and software. Lost revenue due to decades long dependence on gasoline taxes to fund road infrastructure is a problem, doing nothing isn't an option.
 
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Not necessarily.

This could be mitigated with GPS tracking where miles are calculated and bucketed in the state where the tax is enforced and vehicle licensed. It could be done in a privacy-centric way (e.g. not uploading GPS tracks), and could be validated with say a picture of your odometer to make sure you're not disabling or leaving GPS tracking behind somehow and skirting miles driven. The in-state miles becomes your tax obligation, collected next time you renew your annual tabs OR when you initiate a title transfer (solves for the trade-in / selling the car midway through licensing year).

This isn't really a difficult or complicated scheme to solve for using a combination of hardware and software. Lost revenue due to decades long dependence on gasoline taxes to fund road infrastructure is a problem, doing nothing isn't an option.
Yeah, no. The state can stay the hell out of my car. They don’t need to know my whereabouts at any level, via gps tracking.

Make it a flat fee, for all vehicles - not based on vehicle value, and charge it at registration/renewal.
 
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Yeah, no. The state can stay the hell out of my car. They don’t need to know my whereabouts at any level, via gps tracking.

Make it a flat fee, for all vehicles - not based on vehicle value, and charge it at registration/renewal.
I don't like it. So the guy who works from home who travels very little and normally pays a minuscule amount for gas each month pays the same as the 100 mile per day commuter who'd normally pay a ton for gas?
 
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I don't like it. So the guy who works from home who travels very little and normally pays a minuscule amount for gas each month pays the same as the 100 mile per day commuter who'd normally pay a ton for gas?
No, you create a flat road use tax for an average driving distance, spread across all EVs. Some will drive more and some less, but it’s an average across all drivers on the road.
 
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Still isn't fair to the minimal driver. I am guessing that you drive more than average?
Fair ... always a question. The fact is that road damage is primarily trucks and has little to do with personal driving. So just raise another tax to make it work - that would be fair. But a flat tax is also reasonably fair in this light. Of course, auto manufacturers will not like it. Makes getting by with less cars more financially viable.
In the end, this is all peanuts in the grand scheme of tax dollars. A few years ago, the legislature added sales tax to electricity which had none before. That is a good $100 a year for the average household around here. Not that different from our EV use tax or the average state gasoline tax.
Cars don't need GPS and mileage taxation. Trucks do.
 
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Taxes and fees do not count as they are local. The destination fee counts though. Basically, the price on the sales contract is what counts. That said, there is no tax credit for Tesla and nobody knows if the credit will be reinstalled and what limits if any will be on the car price in the new law.

New tax credits may pass however (maybe by next year) because GM, Ford, and Chrysler will just succumb without Federal help and 60-80 of all new vehicles in the US will be Tesla in 5 years.
60-80? This is a joke right?
 
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60-80? This is a joke right?
If we expect, and I believe we should expect, that Tesla is shooting for 20M vehicles annual worldwide production by 2030, I would expect 10-12M will be sold in the US by at least 2028. So, probably 80% is an overshoot, but 60% is a sad possibility unless Ford and GM get off their thighs. Stellantis is not recoverable, I guess. They want to be 100% electric by 2028 while introducing their first EV in 2025. This is agony.
 
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If we expect, and I believe we should expect, that Tesla is shooting for 20M vehicles annual worldwide production by 2030, I would expect 10-12M will be sold in the US by at least 2028. So, probably 80% is an overshoot, but 60% is a sad possibility unless Ford and GM get off their thighs. Stellantis is not recoverable, I guess. They want to be 100% electric by 2028 while introducing their first EV in 2025. This is agony.
EV sales (overall not just Tesla) are still ridiculously small and not growing as fast as was expected.


GM/Ford ICE vehicles that are gas guzzlers like the Tahoe, Explorer, Jeeps big trucks etc are selling like hotcakes you can’t find them anywhere. People are paying insane money over MSRP for them. To think that that EVs or especially a single company like Tesla which only currently appeals to a certain subset of the population (and a good portion of the population hates) will ever capture 60-80% of the market by itself (much less in 5 years lol) is just beyond silly. Tesla can set all the wishful targets if wants for the future but it Dosent mean it will actually happen.
 
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EV sales (overall not just Tesla) are still ridiculously small and not growing as fast as was expected.


GM/Ford ICE vehicles that are gas guzzlers like the Tahoe, Explorer, Jeeps big trucks etc are selling like hotcakes you can’t find them anywhere. People are paying insane money over MSRP for them. To think that that EVs or especially a single company like Tesla which only currently appeals to a certain subset of the population (and a good portion of the population hates) will ever capture 60-80% of the market by itself (much less in 5 years lol) is just beyond silly. Tesla can set all the wishful targets if wants for the future but it Dosent mean it will actually happen.

The US tends to adopt new technology pretty quickly after an initial early adopter phase. The EV plot will be similar to other technology improvements.

1643030366109.png
 
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EV sales (overall not just Tesla) are still ridiculously small and not growing as fast as was expected.


GM/Ford ICE vehicles that are gas guzzlers like the Tahoe, Explorer, Jeeps big trucks etc are selling like hotcakes you can’t find them anywhere. People are paying insane money over MSRP for them. To think that that EVs or especially a single company like Tesla which only currently appeals to a certain subset of the population (and a good portion of the population hates) will ever capture 60-80% of the market by itself (much less in 5 years lol) is just beyond silly. Tesla can set all the wishful targets if wants for the future but it Dosent mean it will actually happen.
My general rule of thumb about online articles is that if they don't allow comments they are usually trash.
 
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The US tends to adopt new technology pretty quickly after an initial early adopter phase. The EV plot will be similar to other technology improvements.

View attachment 759451
An electric car is a lifestyle change. It’s far different than buying a color TV or an iPad. There are still a mountain of issues that EVs have to overcome before they have a prayer of becoming truly mainstream. This will be a slow burn.
 
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