2021+ Model S LR Delivery Tracking

[patt0n]

They want us to change/cancel our orders. They are going to make early LR/19’s wait, possibly forever, to deliver cars because I suspect the margins on the car with the $2000 discount and $10,000 less cost makes it a bad deal for them due to increase in parts across the board.

Except I don't see them prioritizing cars purchased today ahead of late-2020 or early 2021 orders. That would be gross misconduct, and whatever their faults, I can't imagine they would stoop so low.

The problem for most of us is 19" wheels. Clearly, they can't get them, or are unhappy with something in their build. I also think the 19" option on Plaid has low attach, so my optimistic POV is that when they feel good about 19" supply lines, things will start to accelerate in a meaningful way.

 

[brunla]

My dude, 99% of he people in this thread don't have their cars yet, so I don't know if there are enough owners lurking here to answer. Way to pour salt in our wounds

Don't worry. I waited for my car for 9 months and had an $8000 increase in price and an extra $4500 to upgrade to 21's to be able to get my car. I feel your pain.

 

[patt0n]

Sorry in advance for the spam, but one other observation: those that have received their cars have gotten them near their original month-long EDD date. So it does make me feel a little more optimistic that if you've seen a month-long EDD many times over the life of your order, that it will be fulfilled within - or very closely after - that month.

 

[mikeymoves]

Except I don't see them prioritizing cars purchased today ahead of late-2020 or early 2021 orders. That would be gross misconduct, and whatever their faults, I can't imagine they would stoop so low.

The problem for most of us is 19" wheels. Clearly, they can't get them, or are unhappy with something in their build. I also think the 19" option on Plaid has low attach, so my optimistic POV is that when they feel good about 19" supply lines, things will start to accelerate in a meaningful way.

I do, at least as far as EDD goes. I am 1143, ordered in December 2020

Except I don't see them prioritizing cars purchased today ahead of late-2020 or early 2021 orders. That would be gross misconduct, and whatever their faults, I can't imagine they would stoop so low.

The problem for most of us is 19" wheels. Clearly, they can't get them, or are unhappy with something in their build. I also think the 19" option on Plaid has low attach, so my optimistic POV is that when they feel good about 19" supply lines, things will start to accelerate in a meaningful way.

do you really think they are going to give me the same car for $12,000 less because I put a $100 deposit down 9 months ago?

 

[mikeymoves]

I do, at least as far as EDD goes. I am 1143, ordered in December 2020

do you really think they are going to give me the same car for $12,000 less because I put a $100 deposit down 9 months ago?

Hey I hope I’m wrong.

 

[gerald325i]

Except I don't see them prioritizing cars purchased today ahead of late-2020 or early 2021 orders. That would be gross misconduct, and whatever their faults, I can't imagine they would stoop so low.

The problem for most of us is 19" wheels. Clearly, they can't get them, or are unhappy with something in their build. I also think the 19" option on Plaid has low attach, so my optimistic POV is that when they feel good about 19" supply lines, things will start to accelerate in a meaningful way.

I don't buy the shortage of wheels, you can go to youtube and see the drone flights at Fremont (Search Tesla Fremont Flyover, then sort by "this week"). Last flyover was 26 July. And you can see a thousand Model S with both rims and covered in dirt after months of being there with missing parts. We are not getting new cars...we are getting cars that are already there and most likely missing trim pieces. But they have the car of your choice stranded there for sure!

I ordered LR on 1/14/2021, gray, 21" white interior, blank delivery date.

 

[cwanja]

I don't buy the shortage of wheels, you can go to youtube and see the drone flights at Fremont (Search Tesla Fremont Flyover, then sort by "this week"). Last flyover was 26 July. And you can see a thousand Model S with both rims and covered in dirt after months of being there with missing parts. We are not getting new cars...we are getting cars that are already there and most likely missing trim pieces. But they have the car of your choice stranded there for sure!

I ordered LR on 1/14/2021, gray, 21" white interior, blank delivery date.

Not a single one of those cars has moved and they have delivered thousands already. And some of those cars have 21 wheels. If the theory is that they just need trim pieces, they would have already used those trim pieces from the thousands of delivered cars, put it in those covered in dirt and delivered them. But they did not.

 

[mikeymoves]

I don't buy the shortage of wheels, you can go to youtube and see the drone flights at Fremont (Search Tesla Fremont Flyover, then sort by "this week"). Last flyover was 26 July. And you can see a thousand Model S with both rims and covered in dirt after months of being there with missing parts. We are not getting new cars...we are getting cars that are already there and most likely missing trim pieces. But they have the car of your choice stranded there for sure!

I ordered LR on 1/14/2021, gray, 21" white interior, blank delivery date.

This further makes me believe they are waiting out early adopters to either cancel or change their order, losing the discount and lower pricing

 

[MarcG]

This further makes me believe they are waiting out early adopters to either cancel or change their order, losing the discount and lower pricing

This.

 

[gerald325i]

This further makes me believe they are waiting out early adopters to either cancel or change their order, losing the discount and lower pricing

Nah, every car is $100K+ in revenue lost and at a high price of holding inventory and wasting real estate. A $7K loss (at price, so there is most likely still gross margin on every vehicle, so not sold at loss) would make more sense as cash on hand is king vs holding inventory. Not to mention risk of loss/spoilage while holding. It would make absolutely no sense. I would rather think that those cars carry some sort of work intensive deficiency or defect that requires correction but has already been corrected in newer cars, so they must balance shipping new orders vs reworking cars in the lots outside. It's all conjecture at this point, but what is going on is complex and bogs down their Q3 earnings if they don't resolve soon. Regardless, inspect your vehicles well...chances are, they sat for a while outside...

 

[eipi10]

Sorry in advance for the spam, but one other observation: those that have received their cars have gotten them near their original month-long EDD date. So it does make me feel a little more optimistic that if you've seen a month-long EDD many times over the life of your order, that it will be fulfilled within - or very closely after - that month.

That is not true. I’ve had EDDs of March, July, and August. Tesla had no intent of delivering my car in any of these months. Tesla didn’t even begin producing the car until April or May despite telling me March. The EDD has no meaning and no utility. It is just there to string you along.

 

[eipi10]

“Nah, every car is $100K+ in revenue lost and at a high price of holding inventory and wasting real estate. A $7K loss (at price, so there is most likely still gross margin on every vehicle, so not sold at loss) would make more sense as cash on hand is king vs holding inventory. Not to mention risk of loss/spoilage while holding. It would make absolutely no sense. I would rather think that those cars carry some sort of work intensive deficiency or defect that requires correction but has already been corrected in newer cars, so they must balance shipping new orders vs reworking cars in the lots outside. It's all conjecture at this point, but what is going on is complex and bogs down their Q3 earnings if they don't resolve soon. Regardless, inspect your vehicles well...chances are, they sat for a while outside...”

Here is an idea. Maybe Tesla could figure out how to produce cars before saying they are in production and selling them online with an EDD of 1 to 2 months.

 

[sirjaph]

Nah, every car is $100K+ in revenue lost and at a high price of holding inventory and wasting real estate. A $7K loss (at price, so there is most likely still gross margin on every vehicle, so not sold at loss) would make more sense as cash on hand is king vs holding inventory. Not to mention risk of loss/spoilage while holding. It would make absolutely no sense. I would rather think that those cars carry some sort of work intensive deficiency or defect that requires correction but has already been corrected in newer cars, so they must balance shipping new orders vs reworking cars in the lots outside. It's all conjecture at this point, but what is going on is complex and bogs down their Q3 earnings if they don't resolve soon. Regardless, inspect your vehicles well...chances are, they sat for a while outside...

This is logical. People saying they’re holding out for earlier orders to cancel their orders are simply assuming that the earlier $69K price point offered Tesla no margins. I’m sure cost of production (labor+materials) for a MSLR are sub $40k or in that ballpark. I don’t think they’re THAT eager to increase their margins—the blowback wouldn’t be worth it. And by blowback, I don’t mean just PR, this is cash they’d be leaving on the table in anticipation of future demand. They’d get crucified by analysts and shareholders.

The long wait is started to taking a sobering toll on all of us.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

As F---ed up as this process has been, I personally am not taking a step back into ICE land. I'm sure Henry Ford caught $h%t for the model T and had a few T order holders cancel and buy a horse and buggy instead....

We're never going back to ICE land either. We did just get back from a week in Iceland and fortunately, we were able to rent a Model 3 so that we wouldn't need to rent an ICE vehicle. We'll definitely be heading back to Iceland.

Our July dates have disappeared from the Plaid and LR S. Still August for the LR X.

 

[eipi10]

I don't buy the shortage of wheels, you can go to youtube and see the drone flights at Fremont (Search Tesla Fremont Flyover, then sort by "this week"). Last flyover was 26 July. And you can see a thousand Model S with both rims and covered in dirt after months of being there with missing parts. We are not getting new cars...we are getting cars that are already there and most likely missing trim pieces. But they have the car of your choice stranded there for sure!

I ordered LR on 1/14/2021, gray, 21" white interior, blank delivery date.

The idea that there was a “parts shortage” of 19” wheels outside of Tesla’s control always seemed absurd. I suspect that Tesla employees plant such nonsense on this board. Tesla’s production problems are responsible for all the delays in this car.

 

[JPoldo]

I don't buy the shortage of wheels, you can go to youtube and see the drone flights at Fremont (Search Tesla Fremont Flyover, then sort by "this week"). Last flyover was 26 July. And you can see a thousand Model S with both rims and covered in dirt after months of being there with missing parts. We are not getting new cars...we are getting cars that are already there and most likely missing trim pieces. But they have the car of your choice stranded there for sure!

I ordered LR on 1/14/2021, gray, 21" white interior, blank delivery date.

I'm stunned your car has not been delivered with 21" wheels. I ordered 6 days before you with 19", blue/white, and no FSD for delivery to Ft. Myers, FL. Maybe they will put yours & mine on the same truck.

 

[gerald325i]

The idea that there was a “parts shortage” of 19” wheels outside of Tesla’s control always seemed absurd. I suspect that Tesla employees plant such nonsense on this board.

It's BS, you can see the rims in those dusty cars outside! If that is the excuse then why have cars sitting in a lot with both 19 and 21"? Tesla could call me and see if I will accept a different rim and I would most likely accept. Hell I'll accept the opposite of everything I selected!!! No, those cars can't ship because something is missing or a material or quality non-conformance. I work at Honeywell in production programs for space programs...I know the drill And it is obvious that ANY order of a PLAID takes priority and probably parts form those cars outside regardless of how early they were ordered...rightly so, as plaid is most likely giving Tesla a 75% gross margin...that is a huge profit...

 

[gerald325i]

I'm stunned your car has not been delivered with 21" wheels. I ordered 6 days before you with 19", blue/white, and no FSD for delivery to Ft. Myers, FL. Maybe they will put yours & mine on the same truck.

Oh wow, I'm Tampa, so same truck may be right! If I don't go to Mercedes to get something else before then...

 

[patt0n]

And it is obvious that ANY order of a PLAID takes priority and probably parts form those cars outside regardless of how early they were ordered...rightly so, as plaid is most likely giving Tesla a 75% gross margin...that is a huge profit...

Not necessarily; in the last earnings call, he mentioned that S/X actually lost money in aggregate; with the vast majority of Q2 ships being Plaids, it would imply that they're not making much money on any portion of the line yet

 

[chromeboy]

Honestly, if Tesla sent me a note and said, "look, you're not going to get 19" anytime soon. If you want to upgrade to 21" for an additional $4,500, then that will expedite your build", I would do it in a heartbeat. However, proactively doing it now means an extra $15,000 with no certainty that it won't move me to the back of the line.

TBH even if an SA offered that, they know so little I wouldn't even believe them