2023 Inventory discount Model X or wait?

[MARKM3]

Hi all,

Found a demo Model X LR I put a deposit on, 2023 build. It has the refreshed screen in the back (smaller bezels) and the 5 seat interior - love it. Test drove the car and no build quality issues noticed - so I put a deposit on the car for delivery this Friday.

The car is being sold with a $8,800 discount, pretty much negating majority of the first year depreciation. I had no intention of purchasing EAP or even FSD until those features are ironed out.

I'm now thinking if I should wait until HW4 is announced? Or just bite the bullet and if HW4 offers meaningful upgrade, trade the car in (maybe in two years or so). I also was on the fence about getting a plaid or just regular LR. I would rather save the 20k I thought, and go without plaid. Again if that ever changes I could always trade in and upgrade later. The demo I tested was PLENTY fast in my opinion (rivaled my old model 3). I also do not like the captains seats without armrests.

What are you all opinions?

 

[RoBoRaT]

Is HW4 and new radar worth the $8800 discount for you?

It's been leaked that HW4 is being installed on Model X now.

If it were me (I think HW4 is a major upgrade) I would wait until 1 Mar (Investor Day), which is less 2 weeks away, to get anymore insight about HW4/HD Radar etc.

 

[MARKM3]

Is HW4 and new radar worth the $8800 discount for you?

It's been leaked that HW4 is being installed on Model X now.

If it were me (I think HW4 is a major upgrade) I would wait until 1 Mar (Investor Day), which is less 2 weeks away, to get anymore insight about HW4/HD Radar etc.

Hard to say, don't really know the advantage of it? HW4 to me seemed like it only may give a 360 camera and better FSD. FSD in my opinion will not be possible even with the next hardware. I'd hate to pass up a "good deal" with the announcement of HW4 being underwhelming.

 

[henderrj]

As long as it's taken Tesla to get where they are now with FSD, I'm going to guess it's 2 to 4 years before hardware 4 makes any difference at all. That is to say, it'll take them that long to get it working!

Then again, Hope springs eternal!

 

[MARKM3]

As long as it's taken Tesla to get where they are now with FSD, I'm going to guess it's 2 to 4 years before hardware 4 makes any difference at all. That is to say, it'll take them that long to get it working!

Then again, Hope springs eternal!

I agree with you henderr. imo at this point believing anything about FSD and how the next hardware will be much better to me is sort of like waiting for the day that never comes. If they surprise us and FSD is smooth as glass on HW4 in a year than I will just trade in and upgrade. For the price I'm getting the X at it seems like a great entry level price to see if I will love the car long term before comitting an extra 15k+ for FSD and on top of that another 9K for book retail price.

I look at HW4.0 the same as USS. How bizarre was it for Tesla to remove USS when their park assist features were already severely lacking from the competition? Bad decision.

There will always be something bigger and better!

 

[nick_p]

I agree with you henderr. imo at this point believing anything about FSD and how the next hardware will be much better to me is sort of like waiting for the day that never comes. If they surprise us and FSD is smooth as glass on HW4 in a year than I will just trade in and upgrade. For the price I'm getting the X at it seems like a great entry level price to see if I will love the car long term before comitting an extra 15k+ for FSD and on top of that another 9K for book retail price.

I look at HW4.0 the same as USS. How bizarre was it for Tesla to remove USS when their park assist features were already severely lacking from the competition? Bad decision.

There will always be something bigger and better!

In similar situation (difference is I am looking at Model S). From what I got to know from store rep is: "Most (*Most not All) of the Model S/X they are delivering have USS still present" (From my Model Y purchase experience, store reps say change their statement like the hands on a clock).

Did you check if the demo model you test drove had USS?

 

[EEORed]

I got one of the demo mod x last week, mine has USS

 

[MARKM3]

Found a demo Model X LR I put a deposit on, 2023 build. It has the refreshed screen in the back (smaller bezels) and the 5 seat interior - love it. Test drove the car and no build quality issues noticed - so I put a deposit on the car for delivery this Friday.

The car is being sold with a $8,800 discount, pretty much negating majority of the first year depreciation. I had no intention of purchasing EAP or even FSD until those features are ironed out.

In similar situation (difference is I am looking at Model S). From what I got to know from store rep is: "Most (*Most not All) of the Model S/X they are delivering have USS still present" (From my Model Y purchase experience, store reps say change their statement like the hands on a clock).

Did you check if the demo model you test drove had USS?

Yes the model X I purchased yesterday, 2023 year, has USS that is not software disabled. When I pulled into my driveway it told me in inches how far away objects were. Doing a VIN search estimated build date is NOV22. Also has the bigger screen in the back.

I couldn’t be happier with the X I bought. Got a great deal (9k off) with only 60 miles on it. Car is wonderful and very quiet with the ANR. Very happy with just standard AP. Car really feels like a 100k product at this point. Sound system is on another level.

 

[AndrewZ]

Apparently Tesla is marking down inventory X's at some service centers by upwards of $20k via QR codes on the windshields, someone in the Investor thread relayed a post from the Model X Owners Facebook group

 

[RoBoRaT]

Apparently Tesla is marking down inventory X's at some service centers by upwards of $20k via QR codes on the windshields, someone in the Investor thread relayed a post from the Model X Owners Facebook group

They are offering discount at least $12K but not seen anything close to $20K on the inventory list.

 

[AndrewZ]

They are offering discount at least $12K but not seen anything close to $20K on the inventory list.

Yeah I don't know, just sharing what others are sharing

From the "Tesla Model X Owners Club" on facebook:

"The Tesla service center near my house had about 20 Model X all lined up nice and pretty in the parking lot. My curious self had to stop in and find out why they all had QR codes on the windshields. Can you believe they are all $20,000 cheaper than MSRP!! I asked one of the service guys who obviously had no clue because he didn’t even realize there were QR codes on them. But his boss came out and told me that all the showrooms are clearing out their older X and S. And that all the showrooms will be receiving a new product on Tuesday. ... Not to mention, these cars for sale are 40K cheaper than when I bought my X."

Presumably FSD HW 4 will start shipping Tuesday. Sigh, and I've only owned my Model X for 14 months now...

 

[ShareLofty]

They are offering discount at least $12K but not seen anything close to $20K on the inventory list.

Just wait until hw4 is confirmed

 

[ShareLofty]

Anyone think the discount will increase until they get rid of all these “demo” vehicles?

 

[MrPeacock]

I've had one on hold for a little over a week while monitoring inventory, they are definitely selling and inventory is decreasing. In fact, in my area (SoCal) most of the 6 seaters have all been sold. I have delivery setup for day after investor day. Unless something HUGE gets announced, I'll gladly take the $12,500 discount.

 

[jsrawa]

Anyone think the discount will increase until they get rid of all these “demo” vehicles?

I thought we would have already seen more discounts as we near the event but seems Tesla is trying to hold out as long as possible. I thought we might see another few thousand off as a fire sale but maybe I’m dreaming.

 

[MARKM3]

I thought we would have already seen more discounts as we near the event but seems Tesla is trying to hold out as long as possible. I thought we might see another few thousand off as a fire sale but maybe I’m dreaming.

I think we are getting good pricing. Using the average margin % for Tesla, for Q4 22 Tesla's operating margin was 16%, so on the Model X (120k retail in q4 22) their cost was ~102k. They are selling their Inventory X's now at 100k and up.

It's possible Tesla anticipates costs to come down so they're trying to get rid of the extra inventory they produced VS sold. The customers I deal with in manufacturing are doing the same thing. Pricing and anticipatory pricing in manufacturing currently is pricing going down.

Their S/X capacity is 100k per year. If demand continues to decline on those models, the economies of scale are affected thus increasing cost to manufacture.

 

[jsrawa]

I think we are getting good pricing. Using the average margin % for Tesla, for Q4 22 Tesla's operating margin was 16%, so on the Model X (120k retail in q4 22) their cost was ~102k. They are selling their Inventory X's now at 100k and up.

It's possible Tesla anticipates costs to come down so they're trying to get rid of the extra inventory they produced VS sold. The customers I deal with in manufacturing are doing the same thing. Pricing and anticipatory pricing in manufacturing currently is pricing going down.

Their S/X capacity is 100k per year. If demand continues to decline on those models, the economies of scale are affected thus increasing cost to manufacture.

Good viewpoint. I spoke to a SA and they said since the price decrease and tax break the 3/Y are doing great but pulled interest off the S/X. This just makes sense, the huge price gap would be hard to justify for most even if you do get larger, better equipped vehicles. I think they need to bring the base price down even maybe by removing some base features if needed to keep those lines moving, my concern about buying one of these demos is I feel like another price drop may be in the future even if not tomorrow.

 

[MARKM3]

Good viewpoint. I spoke to a SA and they said since the price decrease and tax break the 3/Y are doing great but pulled interest off the S/X. This just makes sense, the huge price gap would be hard to justify for most even if you do get larger, better equipped vehicles. I think they need to bring the base price down even maybe by removing some base features if needed to keep those lines moving, my concern about buying one of these demos is I feel like another price drop may be in the future even if not tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see Tesla's pricing strategy moving forward. I could see them adding a base X/S again as demand continues to fall. I just don't anticipate the current vehicles to decrease much in price since the cost to manufacture is still way up pre-covid levels. I think the inflation is here to stay unless we see a major recession.

 

[jsrawa]

It will be interesting to see Tesla's pricing strategy moving forward. I could see them adding a base X/S again as demand continues to fall. I just don't anticipate the current vehicles to decrease much in price since the cost to manufacture is still way up pre-covid levels. I think the inflation is here to stay unless we see a major recession.

What I find somewhat odd is they removed the ability to custom order new S/X. What is so significant that you can’t even order one now? What I would imagine is a price difference whether up or down would cause them to do this, just HW3 to 4 wouldn’t cause that, if anything people would be pleased to see that upgrade from what they ordered now.

 

[EEORed]

What I find somewhat odd is they removed the ability to custom order new S/X. What is so significant that you can’t even order one now? What I would imagine is a price difference whether up or down would cause them to do this, just HW3 to 4 wouldn’t cause that, if anything people would be pleased to see that upgrade from what they ordered now.

I can still order a new one in the US.