Nearly all of this is determined by what the power draw is when the car is asleep. That is basically all that matters (obviously to a lesser extent the power draw when the car is awake matters, but it is less of an issue, especially as sleep power is reduced).
No one seems to have done the analysis for the “new” “12V” batteries, sadly, yet. It’s not that difficult!
The interval between wake cycles is determined by how much energy is allowed to be drawn from the 12V/“12V” battery (and of course the sleep power). No idea on that either. In the case of the 12V it seems that a couple hundred Wh was about the max (about 40% of capacity?). No idea what the numbers are for the Li-ion “12V.”
Also can all be deduced through careful observations.
Have to be sure to ignore the initial BMS adjustments though after initial park/sleep cycle.
So the big question is whether the sleep power has been reduced in more recent model years. That’s what primarily determines phantom drain for a properly behaving vehicle. I doubt the idle power has changed that much (but maybe if they can recharge that 16V more quickly the impact could be mitigated as the OP suggested).
Still, the real win would be from reducing sleep power (since any reduction in sleep power automatically means proportionately less time spent awake).