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2024 Tesla Production Poll
- Thread starter SOULPEDL
- Start date
Would have been helpful to include 2.2 and 2.4 million as choices.
I would have voted for 2.4 but without that choice I voted for 2.3
I would have voted for 2.4 but without that choice I voted for 2.3
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
I voted 2.1m as the question is about official Tesla guidance, under the general heading of under-promise / over-deliver. It's easy for the company to update (increase) the annual guidance later in the year when they have more information about ramp progress. It's hard to update the guidance by lowering it.
At the risk of sounding naive... What is the reason batteries are a problem in the first place? Was not growth planned?
Didn't legacy auto just cancel a bunch of battery demand for Christmas? Then we discussed how much of this surplus Tesla could capture while they pause BEV production. Recall?
So what did I miss? Normally, resources are discovered, not lost.
Didn't legacy auto just cancel a bunch of battery demand for Christmas? Then we discussed how much of this surplus Tesla could capture while they pause BEV production. Recall?
So what did I miss? Normally, resources are discovered, not lost.
I voted 2.5, which I admit is on the optimistic side..
My rationale, the ramp at Shanghai is complete, but the peak production rate was only hit late in 2023.
Additional Model Y production at Austin and Berlin, specifically Austin.
Cybertruck ramp...
Possibly a modest amount of Gen3 production at Austin late in 2024.
The 4680 ramp should kick in no later than Q3.
if there significant factory shutdowns planned then Tesla will guide lower. I don't expect an significant shutdowns.
For most of 2023 Berlin and Austin were ramping Model Y production that ramp is now complete.
My rationale, the ramp at Shanghai is complete, but the peak production rate was only hit late in 2023.
Additional Model Y production at Austin and Berlin, specifically Austin.
Cybertruck ramp...
Possibly a modest amount of Gen3 production at Austin late in 2024.
The 4680 ramp should kick in no later than Q3.
if there significant factory shutdowns planned then Tesla will guide lower. I don't expect an significant shutdowns.
For most of 2023 Berlin and Austin were ramping Model Y production that ramp is now complete.
Tesla has been very focused on ramping batteries including other vendors as well as Tesla directly. It just takes time and the 4680 ramp has been challenging.
This post will give you an idea of Tesla efforts.
With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
- Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
The 4680 ramp at Austin takes time, just like the 2170 ramp at Sparks took time,
it is a mistake to simply look at installed capacity and assume a factory hits that number quickly and easily.
The 4680 ramp at Austin is also partially dependent on the Cathode plant and may be partially dependent on the Lithium refinery.
Drew has said that 2024 will be a good year for 4680 production.
More 4680s at Austin frees up more 2170s to go the Fremont, Berlin for Model 3/Y and possibly more Semis.
The continued Model Y ramp at Berlin and Austin is dependent on 4680 progress.
Those who estimated a lower guidance are not as bullish,
The new car park being constructed at Austin will be something like the 3rd biggest car park in the world with parking for perhaps up to 11,000 cars. My guess is that new staff being added to Austin are a mix off production line workers, office workers and R&D teams. But I would expect at least an additional 3,000 line workers to join the factory in 2024. That will translate into more lines and more shifts.
The installed 4680 capacity at Austin is 4 existing lines 100 GWh, 4 new lines 100 GWh... I don't expect that full 200 GWh of capacity before perhaps 2027-2028. Production in 2023 ended at about 5 GWh, I do expect a jump to 35 GWh or perhaps more in 2024, probably H1 2024.
20 GWh = 200,000 Model Ys... 15 GWh is 100,000 Cybertrucks...
I would also guess that we will end 2024 with a 4680 peak run-rate of around 50 GWh and raise that to around 100 GWh sometime in 2025-2026.
I don't know how my guess compares to Artful Dodger, but by around 2028, we will have the same numbers.
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I'm with the person from Oz, not just cuz I want my CT, I really believe CT will ramp quickly.
I don't see how 4680 delays would impact any more than the gap on CyberTrucks and Semi. There should be now a surplus of battery materials supply.
The survey data so far suggests some would have voted for >2.5M, maybe even 2.7M which would be the next step up in the survey.
The survey data so far suggests some would have voted for >2.5M, maybe even 2.7M which would be the next step up in the survey.
