We've heard Ron Baron talk about Tesla returning 30x-50x and Elon talk about a $1T market cap, larger than Apple. But I haven't seen any valuation models here, other than the ones done by the WS analysts which are way less aggressive than what Tesla plans to achieve. Does it make sense for us to build a crowd-source model for what TSLA might be worth in 2019? I ask this because when I did a very simplistic one I was surprised at how much potential there is for Tesla stock in a 3 year time period. I offer up my ultra-unsophisticated model as a starting point: 2016: $8B in total revenue 2019: 500,000 cars * $55K ASP = $27.5B in automotive revenue + $5.5B for TE and Solar = $33B total revenue CAGR: 60% After tax margin: 2.5% (same as Amazon) 2019 Earnings: $825M Tesla is targeting 500K deliveries in 2018, so the 2019 automotive estimate is not overly aggressive. The revenue estimates for TE and Solar are a total SWAG. They could potentially be 2x this in 2019 based on what Elon has said. What about earnings? Is 2.5% after tax margin overly conservative. You would think so Now let's try to find a comparable company. The most obvious to me is Amazon, who is a clear market leader in multiple segments and a technology based company disrupting formerly low margin businesses. 2013: $74B in total revenue 2016E: $108B CAGR: 13% Last 4Q earnings: $2.1B Market Cap: $358B Price/Sales: 3.3 P/E: 173 It Tesla grows to $33B in revenue in 2019, given the 60% CAGR assigning a P/S ratio of 3 is very conservative. Assigning the same earnings multiple to Tesla as what the market is giving Amazon is also not aggressive, especially since Amazon's P/E is now at a historic low. Here's how that works out: $33B sales * 3 P/S = $99B $825M earnings * 173 P/E = $143B These numbers look way too good, don't they? But the financial assumptions I have used seem conservative to me if Tesla comes even close to achieving its planned Model 3 and TE revenue ramp. It would be great if others here could poke holes in my assumptions and/or help to build a more sophisticated model. The more confident we become in Tesla's valuation prospects in 2019 the more confident we can be in adding to our long positions.