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4680 in a few months says Elon

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Has this article been posted? Elon says 4680 in a few months at giga Berlin...

The article says best case is end of the year. The more interesting thing for me is that the factory will need to shut down for several weeks to accommodate the change. I thought Berlin already had the necessary tooling.
 
My guess is Fremont goes 4680 for the MY variants late Q3 or early Q4. Call it September.

With the SEMI and the CT coming into production about one year after that, after Tesla catches up some with MY production demand.
 
I am now looking for a year to buy a tesla model Y. Test drove last year both Model 3 and Model Y.
But decided to wait for a model Y coming from Giga Berlin... (with all the new features)

But now I have a new decision to make, do I want to wait for the 4680 batteries or not?
I currently have a gas car so waiting is not really a problem (except gas prices), but at some point I want to own an electric SUV.

What do you guys think about waiting for the 4680 tesla model Y or just going for it now?
 
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I am now looking for a year to buy a tesla model Y. Test drove last year both Model 3 and Model Y.
But decided to wait for a model Y coming from Giga Berlin... (with all the new features)

But now I have a new decision to make, do I want to wait for the 4680 batteries or not?
I currently have a gas car so waiting is not really a problem (except gas prices), but at some point I want to own an electric SUV.

What do you guys think about waiting for the 4680 tesla model Y or just going for it now?
You'll be waiting until well into next year at the earliest. Giga Berlin won't be making MY's with 4680's until sometime in 2023. Just read that they are planning to shut the factory down for a few weeks late this year to convert the production lines to support 4680 production. Given that things always tend to go wrong or get delayed, I suspect it won't be until maybe 2Q23 when they start pushing them out and late 2023 in volume from Berlin. The car is great with the 2170's. We have -zero- reviews of the car with 4680's right now. I think I'd order one now and see what happens.
 
Elon Musk: As a risk mitigation, we have 2170 non structural pack capability here at Giga Texas as well. If things go according to plan, we will be at volume production with 4680 sometime in Q3 2022, but certainly Q4.
 
Elon Musk: As a risk mitigation, we have 2170 non structural pack capability here at Giga Texas as well. If things go according to plan, we will be at volume production with 4680 sometime in Q3 2022, but certainly Q4.
This was a significant comment when you combine it with his other statement that 4680 supply isn't expected to constrain production for 2022. To me that says there may still be technical hurdles in order to achieve performance targets. If that is the case, we could see 2170 vehicles still put in higher performance/range variants for a while. You don't put a risk mitigation strategy like that in place unless you anticipate significant challenges.
 
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This was a significant comment when you combine it with his other statement that 4680 supply isn't expected to constrain production for 2022. To me that says there may still be technical hurdles in order to achieve performance targets. If that is the case, we could see 2170 vehicles still put in higher performance/range variants for a while.
Exactly. And he said if you are waiting to get a Tesla from a specific. Factory you’ll be waiting forever. If you’re waiting for the best Tesla you’ll be waiting forever.
 
Elon Musk: As a risk mitigation, we have 2170 non structural pack capability here at Giga Texas as well. If things go according to plan, we will be at volume production with 4680 sometime in Q3 2022, but certainly Q4.
The 2170 non-structural 'backup plan' pack was discussed long ago and even shown at the Giga Berlin Fest and at the Giga Texas Cyber Rodeo.
It's been buried under the 4680 hype and speculation, but represents a very prudent strategy as 4680 production comes on line.
Elon also noted that the 2170 non-structural pack is what Giga Berlin is using for their current MY production, and he expects Berlin to phase in 4680 later this year.

But the net net of the whole call is that 4680 is in process, not any where near full volume, and not near matching the hype as yet.
 
No, Tesla said they will be capable of doing either battery pack later this year. NOT that they WILL BE doing it.
The question came up in the context of production limitations and lithium / raw material supplier issues.

The blogs are at the hype machine again. Listen to the Earnings Call.
 
4680 are coming!! Inside scoop!! MYP will start being made in Austin end of the month!!!!! They will start with black MYP!!! So if you have a black/black MYP call your advisor NOW and put your order on hold!!!!!!!!


No really!! Do it!!!
Oh very funny. That ship has sailed. Might see MYP from Austin 2023. That's if they can get the battery's made in real numbers . Would love it if it was even true. Logic says no.
 
This was a significant comment when you combine it with his other statement that 4680 supply isn't expected to constrain production for 2022. To me that says there may still be technical hurdles in order to achieve performance targets. If that is the case, we could see 2170 vehicles still put in higher performance/range variants for a while. You don't put a risk mitigation strategy like that in place unless you anticipate significant challenges.
I don't think Tesla is seeing 'performance' issues with the 4680, just production limitations.
Once (if) they get over that hurdle, 4680 will go into all MY variants. Because cost and production advantages are very big.
Then they'll move on to the many other demands for the 4680 (like CT and Semi).
Until then, the 'backup plan pack' remains on the table. Prudent planning.