Looks like Lima, Montana. Nice spot if you arrive before they roll up the carpets for the night.
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500 + Mile Range Debate
- Thread starter Kee_Chain
- Start date
Looks like Lima, Montana. Nice spot if you arrive before they roll up the carpets for the night.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
~45 minutes is ~9kWh. That's ~30 miles of range. Is adding 30 miles of range meaningless?
We waited nearly 45 minutes last night just to get a table....
Someone could also make an argument that from a material supply point, we would be better off putting those cells into making hybrids instead. Much lower priced vehicles, less resources, a lower battery replacement cost, and less gas needed. In the end the free market will decide (consumers), as it should.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The free market isn't magic. Without government incentives or guidance we probably wouldn't have ~any wind, solar or nuclear power. And think of what the DCFC landscape would look like without all that diesel-gate money. No thanks.
Terminator857
Active Member
Seems obvious to me that luxury cars will have 500 mile range, while the not so luxury vehicles will have ~200 mile range. Something in everyone's price range. 10 years down the road I'm expecting pickup trucks and large SUVs with 600-800 mile range.
It's hard to get that much range out of a large vehicle due to diminishing returns from them being inherently less efficient (size, weight, frontal area, etc). To get that range, they need massive battery packs, which further reduces the efficiency and increases cost. Look at the nearly 10,000 pound Hummer EV as an example, or the Rivian with the 130 kWh pack that only goes 300 miles unloaded.
Terminator857
Active Member
Battery tech has been improving at a rate of 8% a year. 10 years down the road a 700 mile range vehicle will be lighter than today's 400 mile range vehicle.
Below is Tesla Model 3 with 8% improvement per year for example:
Year Miles
0 325
1 351
2 379.08
3 409.4064
4 442.158912
5 477.531625
6 515.734155
7 556.9928874
8 601.5523183
9 649.6765038
10 701.6506241
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Your example has already fallen apart because the current long range Model 3 has a range of 334 miles while your example suggests it should be well over 400 miles.
Terminator857
Active Member
DanCar
Active Member
Turns out the rumors about the temporary software locking of the true potential of the 4680 Model Ys may be true . A little birdie told me that there are 4680 Model Ys currently being driven by Tesla employees with a 500 mile range.
For those that are highly skeptical about the 4680 Model Ys having a range of possibly up to 500 miles, myself included, here’s the math. Current MY LR shows 330 miles w 19” tires. Battery day chart shows 54% range increase. 330 x 0.54= 178.2. 330+178.2=508.2
For those that are highly skeptical about the 4680 Model Ys having a range of possibly up to 500 miles, myself included, here’s the math. Current MY LR shows 330 miles w 19” tires. Battery day chart shows 54% range increase. 330 x 0.54= 178.2. 330+178.2=508.2
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Sigh, another misguided person taking the years-ago battery-day slideshow, and just magically assuming a 54% increase in range has actually happened, when in fact we have real living breathing 4680 Model Y's in existence and they have a SHORTER range than their 2170 counterparts.
Yes, eventually we may see some of those battery-day next-generation gains. At the moment they are the stuff of power-point.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
DanCar
Active Member
I don't see any assumption that something has magically happened. He is just publishing a rumor and giving some math based on battery day presentation.
Yes, and does tear down suggest more cells can be fitted in?
Brando
Active Member
My thought - no one will give you batteries, not even Tesla. Seems if someone will pay for it, Tesla will sell it.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
40 (BT60 software locked) 60, and 70 (BTX5 software locked) cars beg to differ.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Munro has gotten that far yet, but yes based on cutaway images, we're expecting to shortly prove that the 4680 MYAWD pack has 15% fewer cells than the original design, and (exactly as one would expect) has 15% less range than the existing MYLR.
Nothing in this suggest a 500 mile pack. Anywhere.
DanCar
Active Member
Elon did say improvements are coming. Very odd if battery day presentation was all smoke and mirrors.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
It's a generational move in technology, and it didn't yield the expected gains right away in the first real-world implementation.
So Elon made a low-capacity variant that he can "learn on" and swapped in his backup plan to just ship 2170 cells for MYLR in Austin while refining the 4680 tech so it can be ready for the CyberTruck and Semi which are waiting for it.
A 4680 LR pack will come to the MY eventually. And as they get experience on the new cell and pack, ranges will likely go up, just as they did on successive iterations on the 2170 pack.
But remember, despite all the years-ago hype, the 4680 is about reducing manufacturing costs, not making longer range
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