5K/week pushed back to Q2

[arcus]

Here is the cure for waiting for Tesla-

Alfa Romeo Giulia!

You will need to buy 2nd immediately. For parts, to keep your 1st running.

 

[MotoEvCA]

Seriously? I get depressed from all the topics popping up complaining about things wizzing and whining and clicking and clunking. A bunch of people complained about warnings that pop up to tell you about broken things that need fixed and then mysteriously disappear... Like this guys road trip Tesla Model 3 Road Trip

The only comforting thing about delays is there's a higher chance that majority of the issues will be worked out on the Q1 crowd.

I am super appreciative for the road trip blog. For a product launch this important THERE WILL be issues to resolve and problems found. For a company of this size, it is to be expected. The very good news is Tesla has been generally quick to respond and correct.

The Bad:
Tesla evangelists on this and other forums being overly critical of Model 3 owners / prospective owners who are vocal about identified issues and post them in social media. For a $50K+ vehicle, they have every right.

People generally understand new / complex technology will have initial problems and this is not unique to Tesla. As a former BMW hybrid owner, I was a fixture at the service department working through problems several times a year.

Explaining away real Model 3 issues large or small is not being loyal or supporting the mission of Tesla. In fact, it will hurt Tesla in the long run. Tesla has the resources (financial and human) to resolve almost any problem and communicate when a fix will be available.

It is only when Tesla does not appear transparent or give their service center teams the needed resources that negative reputation events occur.

 

[Surfer]

The front end of the car looks like an Edsel - sucking a lemon! and Motor Trend informally compared the Julia to a model 3 and Julia did not measure up.

Ummmm...."Motor Trend magazine has named the Alfa Romeo Giulia its Car of the Year. The finalists included the new, redesigned Honda Accord and the Tesla Model 3."

Giulia beat the Model 3 to win.

 

[Surfer]

You will need to buy 2nd immediately. For parts, to keep your 1st running.

Nope, Tied for 3rd in reliability.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/rankings/upscale-small-cars

 

[Moderatefan]

Explaining away real Model 3 issues large or small is not being loyal or supporting the mission of Tesla. In fact, it will hurt Tesla in the long run.

I am supportive, that's why I'm in line. Got solar panels installed by them too last year. But its fair for people to be fully aware what they pay for, especially when test drives are not possible. So, yes, I also appreciate people posting their issues/concerns.

 

[T34ME]

Ummmm...."Motor Trend magazine has named the Alfa Romeo Giulia its Car of the Year. The finalists included the new, redesigned Honda Accord and the Tesla Model 3."

Giulia beat the Model 3 to win.

The fix was in for Julia.

Here is the summary of a review by Motor Trend's Kim Reynolds on July 28, 2017:

Have I ever driven a more startling small sedan? I haven’t. At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven’t encountered before. By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison.​

 

[DrDabbles]

Thing is, the price of the car will likely be a double of my past purchases, which for the most part were very adequate functionally, so the idea of spending twice as much and getting issues I didn't have in the past ... takes some getting used to.

The simple solution here is don't buy a bEV until they're sufficiently inexpensive or up to your standards. The price of a Model 3 isn't much of a concern for me, and compared to the vehicles I have now it's sufficiently advanced in quality and features. This is just personal preference, so I'm not sure it's really worth either of us debating.

- back windows roll down only half way

Same with my Subaru, and my Land Rover.

- steering wheel not heated

It's conceivable they'll offer a winter package, like the do on the S and X in a year or two. I've never had a heated wheel, so heated seats are sufficient magic for me.

- back seats are uncomfortable being too low, so your knees are sticking up

I'd say the rear seating position is slightly better than a Model S. The floor is a little higher than a normal ICE vehicle because there's a battery pack where the footwell would normally be. I don't know if you've gone for a long trip in the car or not though, and I know I haven't. So I can't really say how this is in practical terms. But from short rides I've been in the back of a Model S for makes me feel like it's adequate. But I rarely have passengers in the rear of my cars, so for me this is a total non-issue.

- ride feels hard/bumpy if you're in the back

Yeah. Coil-over suspension feels more harsh over bumps. But it also feels more sporty to drive. My current daily driver is lowered and has a hard suspension setup, so again for my personal preference, this isn't a concern for me. But I think for a lot of people going to coil overs from normal style struts and springs, they'll absolutely notice a difference.

- back window "too high" and hard to look through, so using camera view is preferred, however, camera view is bad especially in the dark or rain/snow to the point of being unusable

This is a non-issue entirely. I looked out the back window from the driver's position in a Model 3 just two days ago. The people complaining that there's a visibility problem...I don't know what they currently drive, but it must be entirely made of glass. Also, the mirrors were great and gave a full view behind the vehicle. Add on the backup camera as an additional safety check, and that complaint is just nonsense to me.

- trunk security insufficient: if back door window is broken, trunk can be easily accessed from inside the car (I believe at least some cars have this implemented better)

This is a problem for every car. The seats fold down from inside the cabin. And even if they didn't, on any other car on the market you could just use the trunk release to open the trunk after getting access to the cabin. This isn't a complaint, this isn't even nit picking. This is nothing.

- some "vampire drain" or battery heating going on, did not read up on this, concern is if you leave your car in the airport for a few weeks it might not start and get you home when you come back, which is not a concern for ICE.

Yes. All bEV do this, by the way. Batteries discharge themselves, and in addition if you don't put your car into a low power mode, the computers onboard will also consume power. Additionally, if you park in an extremely cold climate, the battery will protect itself from permanent damage by warming itself slightly from what I understand. Would you rather have to replace a $25k battery pack, or remember to keep enough charge in your vehicle for the amount of time you'll be parking it unplugged? Either way, this isn't a Tesla problem.

- very loud "getting ready" sounds(clicking/clunking) when you approach the car (might be able to reduce when this happens but likely not the loudness)

I suppose that needs to be investigated, and any applicable fixes can be performed in-line during assembly.

- honestly, not very impressive outside trim on some cars, like the stripe in the middle of the doors not being aligned by 0.5 inch or so, which I believe Tesla considers within their margin of error and not needing a fix

Yeah, some of Tesla's fit and finish needs to be improved significantly. They need better QA, because even a quarter inch difference between aligned chrome pieces is painfully obvious. In my opinion, this is yet another reason to offer something other than chrome edging. But getting it right from the factory is the clear need here.

"Temporary":

- screen glitches that make maps unusable (for the road trip guy, You You, even Tesla technician visit did not fix this)

I saw this in person. I have some ideas what could be causing it, and they're pretty easy fixes. Software bugs can be squashed extremely quickly. Hardware glitches much less so. So we will have to wait to see what Tesla says is the root cause of this. But I'd guess it's either a grounding fault, a software bug, or maybe a small flaw in the touch panel. That last one is iffy, because I feel like there would be other signs like not properly detecting input as well as spuriously detecting input. But there are 100% some software bugs I saw in the UI. None of them seem to be difficult issues, though. Probably a couple hours developer time each.

- other glitches with lost sound etc. that require "hard reboots"

Let's not forget the entirely missing sound from the rear of that one guy's car, too. A reset didn't fix that, so that seems more like a wiring harness got damaged, or the speakers weren't even connected. This goes back to the QA team, and what they're doing to catch these types of issues. Audio, video, and touch input tests should be done on every single car as it rolls through the line. Period.

- AP not to be trusted on 1. Combinations of hills/curves 2. Roads with minimal amount of snow 3. Any construction zone (doesn't see cones and even barrier in the lane - there's a crash video). This puts a fat question mark on the $5K cost/benefit

This is by design. That's why Tesla tells you that you need to be ready to take over. That's how the computer is informed it made a wrong choice, and that's how training data is gathered for the neural net. The alternative, if you don't want to follow the rules, is that you can not use it. Even better, if you don't want to help Tesla by giving them free data after you paid for a car, then you can choose not to buy the feature at all. You still get automatic emergency braking and traffic aware cruise control. For me personally, I can follow instructions and I'm planning on using AutoPilot for those times when I'm driving a longer distance on a highway.

- other smaller issues with clicking on top of your audio etc

I've only seen the one with the clicking after hanging up a Bluetooth call. That seems pretty annoying, but this is almost certainly a software audio mixer problem and will be trivial to fix. There are only 1500 of these things on the road, so I feel like bugs are going to come to the surface. I'm not an existing owner, though, so I won't get my car for another 9 months or so.

I still feel that there will be more positives to outweight the above. It's just...the perfection doesn't exist. Oh well

Yeah, it's got a way to go. My personal situation is that I want to be part of a wave that shows the auto industry that customers want bEVs, and that they were fools for waiting so long to offer a viable solution. So now a 14 year old company with way less capital to invest has beat them to the punch. Now they're all playing catch-up with a company that is 100 years younger, with 100 years less experience in making cars. Tesla clowned the rest of the auto industry, and I'll gladly reward them with my small stock purchase, my patience, and my eventual payment for a Model 3 this October.

 

[JPUConn]

I think it is a big deal.
If Apple forecasted building and selling 50m iPhones in 2018... But only produced 25 million. It would be a catastrophe.
Musk predicted 300 to 400k model 3s in 2018... If the weekly avg in 2018 is 4000... That is 200k cars for the year. So multiply that 150,000 gap by $45,000 per unit sold...

People here like to say that analysts assume this and therefore it is baked into the stock price. But this cake is gonna get badly burnt

Sure it is a big deal and will be impactful to short term cash flow. I’d expect the stock to dip and the long term focused die hards (myself included) to take a buying opportunity.

Any analyst who doesn’t include “Elon Musk time” into everything he says isn’t doing their job. I think the stock is priced with high expectations but the big market movers have likely anticipated a delay and had the delivery numbers hit Elon’s targets the price would have soared.

Had they always been on time and all of a sudden they’re running behind then sure it’d be a catastrophy, for Tesla this is not unusual.

 

[sweter]

I hear what you are saying, but Tesla employs over 330K people that does not include a marketing dept at all. Isn't that enough?

Just because they don't do ads doesn't mean they don't do marketing...

Search for Jobs | Tesla

 

[Barklikeadog]

Better at getting your point across, for sure. But unlike Make Believe, Tesla did not make 400,000 M3's and only manage to sell half of them. More to the contrary, Tesla most probably has 400,000 willing and able buyers for the M3, and simply cannot not make M3's fast enough. That, I think, is a very different situation, and one which as a manufacturer I would much prefer to the situation of your Make Believe company

If Make Believe company informed shareholders that they would build and sell 400,000 widgets next year, but were only able to produce and sell 200,000 widgets. that would be a catastrophe.

 

[dsvick]

Yeah, I get the idea that it's novel and exciting and has a bunch of positives, but I also see the growing list of issues, some of which are permanent and some might get corrected couple of years down the road. Thing is, the price of the car will likely be a double of my past purchases, which for the most part were very adequate functionally, so the idea of spending twice as much and getting issues I didn't have in the past ... takes some getting used to.
What I've heard so far, permanent issues:
- back windows roll down only half way
- steering wheel not heated
- back seats are uncomfortable being too low, so your knees are sticking up
- ride feels hard/bumpy if you're in the back
- back window "too high" and hard to look through, so using camera view is preferred, however, camera view is bad especially in the dark or rain/snow to the point of being unusable
- trunk security insufficient: if back door window is broken, trunk can be easily accessed from inside the car (I believe at least some cars have this implemented better)
- some "vampire drain" or battery heating going on, did not read up on this, concern is if you leave your car in the airport for a few weeks it might not start and get you home when you come back, which is not a concern for ICE.
- very loud "getting ready" sounds(clicking/clunking) when you approach the car (might be able to reduce when this happens but likely not the loudness)
- honestly, not very impressive outside trim on some cars, like the stripe in the middle of the doors not being aligned by 0.5 inch or so, which I believe Tesla considers within their margin of error and not needing a fix

"Temporary":
- screen glitches that make maps unusable (for the road trip guy, You You, even Tesla technician visit did not fix this)
- other glitches with lost sound etc. that require "hard reboots"
- AP not to be trusted on 1. Combinations of hills/curves 2. Roads with minimal amount of snow 3. Any construction zone (doesn't see cones and even barrier in the lane - there's a crash video). This puts a fat question mark on the $5K cost/benefit
- other smaller issues with clicking on top of your audio etc
- I think I forgot a bunch of other things

I still feel that there will be more positives to outweight the above. It's just...the perfection doesn't exist. Oh well

All of your "permanent issues", except for the vampire drain, are completely subjective. Yes, they are permanent, until they get changed, but for many people they are not an issue or even a concern. If the number of things you don't like about it outweigh the things that you do then you should probably start looking at other options.

 

[Moderatefan]

The simple solution here is don't buy a bEV until they're sufficiently inexpensive or up to your standards.

Inexpensive will not happen for many years. In fact, $7.5K credit (plus $5K CO) makes this purchase so much more attractive right now, b/c it will offset many years of price decreases that are expected due to improved efficiency etc. It also allows to consider additional features such as LR or AP, which otherwise could be bypassed. The same credits are also a very strong incentive to overlook other drawbacks that I listed. If you wait until they are corrected, you may lose credits. But to me those drawbacks are not worth that much money.

I'd say the rear seating position is slightly better than a Model S. The floor is a little higher than a normal ICE vehicle because there's a battery pack where the footwell would normally be. I don't know if you've gone for a long trip in the car or not though, and I know I haven't.

I haven't seen M3 yet, just collecting info from topics here. I might be able to test drive it, I hope my delivery will be early Q2 and, supposedly, at about the same time Tesla stores should be getting M3 samples for the test drives.

This is a non-issue entirely. I looked out the back window from the driver's position in a Model 3 just two days ago. The people complaining that there's a visibility problem...I don't know what they currently drive, but it must be entirely made of glass. Also, the mirrors were great and gave a full view behind the vehicle. Add on the backup camera as an additional safety check, and that complaint is just nonsense to me.

Thanks for easing up my concerns here; this is probably the most important item.

Would you rather have to replace a $25k battery pack, or remember to keep enough charge in your vehicle for the amount of time you'll be parking it unplugged? Either way, this isn't a Tesla problem.

I would rather remember. But w/o reading the forum I would not be aware that the risk exists. We would need more info to better understand the impact of this - like what temperature results in what charge losses. And maybe change our behavior a bit and use Uber for trips to airports rather than leave your car there.

"Temporary":

This is by design. That's why Tesla tells you that you need to be ready to take over. That's how the computer is informed it made a wrong choice, and that's how training data is gathered for the neural net. ......For me personally, I can follow instructions and I'm planning on using AutoPilot for those times when I'm driving a longer distance on a highway.

RE: instructions, I cannot say for sure what happens in all these scenarios, but from watched videos of construction zones there were no instructions or warnings - AP crashed into a concrere barrier that gradually encroached onto the lane and was going to run over the cones closing the lane if the driver didn't change the lanes. Which means you can't really trust it and remove your attention from the road for long. Maybe this will only be possible with FSD and we shouldn't have very high expectations of AP. In my opinion, AP should cost $3k and FSD $5k, not the other way around in this case.

There are only 1500 of these things on the road, so I feel like bugs are going to come to the surface.

It seems though as many people are having similar issues - maps glitching, lost sound, some UI inefficiencies like hidden "following distance" setting... makes you wonder why they haven't addressed this since July.

Yeah, it's got a way to go. My personal situation is that I want to be part of a wave that shows the auto industry that customers want bEVs, and that they were fools for waiting so long to offer a viable solution. So now a 14 year old company with way less capital to invest has beat them to the punch. Now they're all playing catch-up with a company that is 100 years younger, with 100 years less experience in making cars. Tesla clowned the rest of the auto industry, and I'll gladly reward them with my small stock purchase, my patience, and my eventual payment for a Model 3 this October.

Agreed, I really feel we need to start acting to revert the impact humans are making on the planet. This car is not simply a collection of features, it's a chance to leave something to our children before it's too late. And to speed up this process with our support of Tesla's mission.

 

[JSkrehot]

It’s $0.20 a kWh in California. That’s way more than I pay on my time of use plan. The 400 kWh is not included for the 3.

Yes, $0.20 is more per kWh then a TOU rate of $0.11, however, if your spouse works from home and you don't adjust your energy usage, it's not much of a savings. Also, it may not be advertised on the Tesla website yet, however, I have it on pretty good authority that the 400 kWh is included for M3 owners. I'll be driving for free with free charging at work, excess solar production at home and 400 free SuperCharger kWh's!

 

[Stoneymonster]

RE: instructions, I cannot say for sure what happens in all these scenarios, but from watched videos of construction zones there were no instructions or warnings - AP crashed into a concrere barrier that gradually encroached onto the lane and was going to run over the cones closing the lane if the driver didn't change the lanes. Which means you can't really trust it and remove your attention from the road for long. Maybe this will only be possible with FSD and we shouldn't have very high expectations of AP. In my opinion, AP should cost $3k and FSD $5k, not the other way around in this case.

With EAP you absolutely should not remove your attention from the road. At all. That's never been the message from Tesla. It's not ready for that. What is *does* do is reduce your driving load by removing the necessity to constantly modulate the steering and speed to stay with the flow of traffic. Or handle stop and go situations. I find I'm *more* attentive with AP on because I am more free to keep track of my surroundings. I'm also more relaxed, but certainly paying attention. If one lets one's car crash itself, at this point, that's entirely on the driver.

That said, I hope this starts to evolve this year.

 

[Moderatefan]

All of your "permanent issues", except for the vampire drain, are completely subjective. Yes, they are permanent, until they get changed, but for many people they are not an issue or even a concern. If the number of things you don't like about it outweigh the things that you do then you should probably start looking at other options.

Honestly, I don't even need a car that much. We have 2013 and 2014 ICEs we bought new that I expect to last many more years. But this car is a cool gadget and also a chance to make an impact on the environment(in a positive sense), so I want to switch to it for the most part maybe except some long road trips. And if I really like it, maybe replace ICEs with other EVs few years down the road.

 

[gregincal]

All of your "permanent issues", except for the vampire drain, are completely subjective. Yes, they are permanent, until they get changed, but for many people they are not an issue or even a concern. If the number of things you don't like about it outweigh the things that you do then you should probably start looking at other options.

Also, Vampire drain isn't really permanent. My Model S had huge vampire drain when I bought it, and it was fixed with software updates. I haven't heard of vampire drain being an issue on the Model 3. Obviously there will always be some drain, as pointed above, but how much? Is the issue leaving your car at the airport for a week or leaving it parked and not plugged in for six months? Because the former wouldn't be a problem in a Model S, but the latter certainly would be.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Also, Vampire drain isn't really permanent. My Model S had huge vampire drain when I bought it, and it was fixed with software updates. I haven't heard of vampire drain being an issue on the Model 3. Obviously there will always be some drain, as pointed above, but how much? Is the issue leaving your car at the airport for a week or leaving it parked and not plugged in for six months? Because the former wouldn't be a problem in a Model S, but the latter certainly would be.

It's not a problem unless you are leaving the car at a low state of charge for months. I guess if you left it in very cold temperatures you should expect a couple percent per day and plan accordingly. I'd argue if you are in those kinds of conditions you would have a problem with your 12V on an ICE too.

 

[Moderatefan]

I guess if you left it in very cold temperatures you should expect a couple percent per day and plan accordingly. I'd argue if you are in those kinds of conditions you would have a problem with your 12V on an ICE too.

5.6mi/hr lost in -13F. That's an impressive 134 miles per day. Leave your car outside for couple of days and you're screwed. Tesla Model 3 Road Trip

The number seems quite significant, it almost rules out ownership by apartment dwellers in cold climates, as if they take 3 day vacation away from their car, they may come back to a damaged battery? I think we need more people to chime in with their data.

 

[Stoneymonster]

5.6mi/hr lost in -13F. That's an impressive 134 miles per day. Leave your car outside for couple of days and you're screwed. Tesla Model 3 Road Trip

Sure, but that's a crazy extreme circumstance. You have to take precautions with ICE cars in those conditions too.

 

[gregincal]

5.6mi/hr lost in -13F. That's an impressive 134 miles per day. Leave your car outside for couple of days and you're screwed. Tesla Model 3 Road Trip

The number seems quite significant, it almost rules out ownership by apartment dwellers in cold climates, as if they take 3 day vacation away from their car, they may come back to a damaged battery? I think we need more people to chime in with their data.

Actually, I'm not convinced. They lost that range overnight, but I bet the range lost was the energy needed to warm the battery before driving again. The loss after a day or 5 days could easily be exactly the same. As you say, more people need to chime in with their data.