All discussion of QuantumScape QS

[SMAlset]

Dendrite free isn't the holy grail, density, cycle life, safety and cost are. If dendrites form but are controlled well enough they aren't an issue. Lithium titanate does have low dendrite potential and is the highest cycle life of existing lithium chemistry, (over 10,000 cycles), as well as the safest, it still suffers from high cost and lower energy density. The point is that when a company talks about charging speed it probably means they fall short on all the other more important metrics.

Charging speed is a talking point for the media and something all non-EV owners considering an EV come to expect to be mentioned upfront, so not surprised to see it mentioned in any development news regardless of company. Apart from range, charging speed is key to this buying segment in their jumping on board or not let’s face it.

 

[JRP3]

Apart from range, charging speed is key to this buying segment in their jumping on board or not let’s face it.

Cost and range are the first things people have consistently asked me about regarding EV's, usually in that order, because if they can't afford it nothing else matters. Charge speed comes in third, sometimes fourth after "where can I charge it."

 

[SMAlset]

Cost and range are the first things people have consistently asked me about regarding EV's, usually in that order, because if they can't afford it nothing else matters. Charge speed comes in third, sometimes fourth after "where can I charge it."

I didn’t bother to mention cost because obviously if you can’t afford a particular car you look to other cars you can afford. So don’t disagree that cost would also be a key factor and for most #1 although people do manage to stretch the budget to buy the car of their dreams if that’s what they really want.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I didn’t bother to mention cost because obviously if you can’t afford a particular car you look to other cars you can afford. So don’t disagree that cost would also be a key factor and for most #1 although people do manage to stretch the budget to buy the car of their dreams if that’s what they really want.

Had to smile when Jagdeep kept saying 'possibly lower cost'. SSBs will be very expensive for years. SES sold handfuls of their li-metal cells to solar drone makers a few years ago at absurd prices. Amprius sells their 450 Wh/kg Si-Nanowire cells into the same market. Amprius also claims 0-80% in six minutes, btw, much faster than QS.

There was a lot of pre-Battery Day speculation that Tesla had acquired Amprius. Turns out they bought SilLion instead. Even the term nanowire sounds expensive.

$500/kWh is only a few bucks extra for a thinner/lighter/faster charging cell phone. But this guy's going to sell them at $80/kwh for VW ID.4s? Or even $150/kWh for Taycans? I call BS. Talk of SSBs in EVs is just investor hype. Anyone who can actually manufacture a 400+ Wh/kg cell will have their first 3-4 years of production ramp bought up by other markets. I don't see SSBs in EVs before 2027-28 except extreme niche vehicles like Rimacs or maybe Tesla Roadster.

Dendrite free isn't the holy grail, density, cycle life, safety and cost are. If dendrites form but are controlled well enough they aren't an issue. Lithium titanate does have low dendrite potential and is the highest cycle life of existing lithium chemistry, (over 10,000 cycles), as well as the safest, it still suffers from high cost and lower energy density. The point is that when a company talks about charging speed it probably means they fall short on all the other more important metrics.

A couple years ago Toshiba announced a new variant called NTO (Niobium Titanium Oxide) with 50% more energy density. That's still much lower than NCx, though, and presumably still very expensive. They don't seem to have shipped it yet, so maybe they ran into problems.

 

[JRP3]

Aiming for 2023 production according to this Toshiba, Sojitz and CBMM partner to commercialize next-generation Li-ion batteries with NTO anodes

 

[Cosmacelf]

Had to smile when Jagdeep kept saying 'possibly lower cost'. SSBs will be very expensive for years. SES sold handfuls of their li-metal cells to solar drone makers a few years ago at absurd prices. Amprius sells their 450 Wh/kg Si-Nanowire cells into the same market. Amprius also claims 0-80% in six minutes, btw, much faster than QS.

There was a lot of pre-Battery Day speculation that Tesla had acquired Amprius. Turns out they bought SilLion instead. Even the term nanowire sounds expensive.

$500/kWh is only a few bucks extra for a thinner/lighter/faster charging cell phone. But this guy's going to sell them at $80/kwh for VW ID.4s? Or even $150/kWh for Taycans? I call BS. Talk of SSBs in EVs is just investor hype. Anyone who can actually manufacture a 400+ Wh/kg cell will have their first 3-4 years of production ramp bought up by other markets. I don't see SSBs in EVs before 2027-28 except extreme niche vehicles like Rimacs or maybe Tesla Roadster.

A couple years ago Toshiba announced a new variant called NTO (Niobium Titanium Oxide) with 50% more energy density. That's still much lower than NCx, though, and presumably still very expensive. They don't seem to have shipped it yet, so maybe they ran into problems.

Great post. I am continually amazed at the total lack of respect Tesla continues to get. The fact that Tesla is not pursuing SS cells is very telling. If SS was going to be viable for EVs in the next few years, Tesla would be doing it. If you don’t believe that, then you’ve got to think that Tesla has made a big mistake on a core technology, the same company that has been bird dogging EV battery technology for over 14 years.

 

[heltok]

My take: I still don’t see it. Maybe they have something. Maybe that will go into scale. That’s nice for the world, I applaud their effort. But as an investor my question is: Will they make any meaningful profit?

Let’s take everything goes 100% according to plan scenario:

In 2030, they are making 500GWh of solid state batteries. They somehow manage to make them for $30/kWh, while Tesla have been stuck at $50/kWh since 2025 as Tesla ran out of R&D money and the Chinese decided that hydrogen was the way forward. So they sell these to VW who now is the largest EV maker in the world for $40/kWh undercutting Tesla. So $10/kWh * 500 000 000kWh = $5B of profit per year minus their $500M/y budget for R&D and SG&A. Even in a pie in the sky scenario the profit is not very large, we are talking Tesla 2021Q2 amount of profits. Is any of this likely? With LFP? With Tesla having a war chest to fund reserach to learn their secret sauce of how dendrites are formed in 9 years? With Tesla having actual factories up and running and being able to attract serious talent after their battery day. With whatever improvements Tesla presents at future battery days? With Chinese companies aggressively trying to capture the battery market? With Northvolt, Samsung, CATL, LG, Panasonic wanting a slice of those $5B/y?

It’s just so much that will happen even before they go into scale and even if they do, the profits will not even be large… Batteries is not where the profits are, it’s in the value added final product, in the software etc.

It just screams ”Tesla did something with EVs, now they are worth a lot. Not gonna miss that train again… So I’m gonna invest in anything that promises to do something cool in the EV space and make as much money as those pesky early investors in Tesla did and not feel bad about myself anymore”.

Bumping my own post. Still see nothing motivating the current market cap.

 

[kabin]

Yep, so far it's snake oil.

 

[kabin]

Another solid state battery related company is Solid Power (SLDW). They only plan to manufacture the electrolyte not the battery. Probably won't make a profit for a few more years though.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah I took a small position in their stock as a gamble.

 

[JRP3]

Rumor:

QuantumScape May Bring Drivers an All-Electric Porsche 911

A report of a partnership with Porsche could answer the question of who the solid-state battery technology company QuantumScape began working with back in December.

www.barrons.com

The electric 911 could be powered by solid-state batteries supplied by QuantumScape (ticker: QS), according to a report from Electrek, citing an article from the German news outlet Manager Magazin.

 

[SMAlset]

Didn’t see anyone mention the latest on QuantumScape’s progress. Now at 24-layer prototype cells testing successfully and two additional OEMs onboard for testing.

As reported by Electrek:
“We do know the two additional OEMs bring Quantumscape’s total to six potential customers – all of which are “global top-10 manufacturers by revenue to premium performance and luxury automakers, encompassing both pure EV and conventional OEMs.”

Full article:

Quantumscape Q2 2022 report: 24-layer solid-state cells, scaled manufacturing, and two new OEM customers

Solid-state battery manufacturer Quantumscape has released its second quarterly report for 2022, updating the public to its progress in scaling...

electrek.co

QuantumScape’s Q2 2022 earnings report, earnings call, shareholder letter, press release:

QuantumScape - Investor Relations

ir.quantumscape.com

 

[Buckminster]

Not Quantumscape but solid state:

https://global.toyota/pages/news/images/2023/06/13/0500/electrified_technologies_batteries_en.pdf
Toyota's press release had a lot more info than just renewed claims of solid state battery commercialization and a 1000-km range. It's amazing what I can find by actually reading the primary source instead of making jokes based on headlines and journalist publications.

So here’s what Toyota is claiming:

• Again saying solid state batteries are approaching practical application in production BEVs thanks to a “technological breakthrough” solving the durability issue. Aiming for 2027-2028 commercialization in BEVs. We'll see.

• Using a “bipolar” cell design in the future. This is an interesting concept I’ve never seen before. Basically they’re breaking away from the normal method by instead applying anode and cathode materials on opposite sides of common metal foil layers (see figure below). One obvious advantage depicted in the diagram is a reduction in cell casing material, but I don’t know enough about the tech to consider other pros and cons. Toyota touts the potential to substantially improve range, charging speed, energy density and cost for both the high-nickel and iron-phosphate chemistries. Normally, Li-ion batteries use copper foil for the anode and aluminum foil for the cathode, because each is more suitable for the particular chemical and electrical conditions of the anode and cathodes respectively. Toyota did not disclose the current collector material selection, so this remains a mystery for now, but presumably they have come up with some solution because Toyota says the Aqua (also known as Prius c) and Crown hybrid models have already been using this tech. Also, I suspect it will be more challenging to control the internal temperature of this type of cell than conventional cells because the steel containers provide the opportunity to run cooling ribbons along their walls.

I hope we’ll get analysis from The Limiting Factor with some of the battery experts like Dr. Dahn or Dr. Mung opining.

 

[JRP3]

Not solid state just rumors.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

In case anyone is wondering why their stock is up 20% today...

QuantumScape (QS) Q2 2023: Higher energy cells delivered, potential launch partner, and 15-minute fast charges

Solid-state battery developer QuantumScape has recently shared its Q2 2023 report, offering several updates on its progress toward reaching commercialization...

electrek.co

The company is reporting stellar milestones including a shipment of high cathode-loading cells to automotive partners as well as details of a potential customer chosen for an official launch of its first product.

 

[Buckminster]

QuantumScape (QS) Q3 2023: prototype solid-state test cells exceed performance targets

 

[Cosmacelf]

QuantumScape (QS) Q3 2023: prototype solid-state test cells exceed performance targets

Reading that article, it sounds like they are still in R&D with a cell that only has similar energy density as current market cells. And they still have to create and ramp full scale manufacturing with all the attendant yield and cost implications.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719714217123885196

 

[Cosmacelf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719714217123885196

That aligns with the markets Quantumscape are targeting: high cost. I am always skeptical of every new battery “breakthrough” because they all flounder on cost.

 

[MC3OZ]

I've seen issues with the energy density of solid state batteries mentioned several times, Drew expressed the trade-off very well.

Scaling manufacturing is another challenge.

If SS ends up being high cost and difficult to scale, it isn't suitable for automotive until those challenges can be overcome.