All discussion of QuantumScape QS

[Lon12]

Does anyone know how different their batteries are compared to Electrovaya's? They use a ceramic separator as well.
Electrovaya has been around a lot longer.
Lithium-Ion Battery Technology | Lithium-Ion Cell Design | ElectroVaya

 

[SMAlset]

Sandy’s interview was interesting listen. He did ask Jagdeep about a few of the other companies by name working on solid state but I don’t recall Electrovaya as one. Wish Munro Live was able to include footage of Sandy’s tour of the r&d facilities.

I saw this this morning about the new plant that Jagdeep mentioned in his talk:

QuantumScape and Volkswagen Sign Agreement to Select Location for Joint Venture Pilot-Line Facility

QuantumScape Corporation, (NYSE: QS, or “QuantumScape”) today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Volkswagen Group of America, Inc. t

www.businesswire.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

Does anyone know how different their batteries are compared to Electrovaya's? They use a ceramic separator as well.
Electrovaya has been around a lot longer.
Lithium-Ion Battery Technology | Lithium-Ion Cell Design | ElectroVaya

QS has a lithium metal anode. I've never heard of an Electrovaya having anything but regular graphite.

Bollore has made lithium metal, solid state cells for a long time. They sold cars with them a decade ago and they're currently used in a Mercedes bus. They are high temperature cells, though. Well over 100 deg C, I think. They're also heavy, don't ask me since the whole point of eliminating graphite in the anode is to improve energy density.

 

[SMAlset]

I haven’t seen the press pick up the news of the QS-1 plant to be built in Germany yet. Not sure how many analysts are following QuantumScape but think there are a few now.

 

[MC3OZ]

I change my mind about QuantumScape after viewing this video...

The term "solid state battery" is misleading, it is better to call it a "Lithium Metal Anode" battery.

And Tesla has a patent for a similar battery;- Tesla patents new technology for lithium metal/anode-free battery cells - Electrek

QuantumScape seems further down the track than Tesla, but Tesla could always license QuantumScape technology, even given that VW will be first to market.

But it seems to me the separator is a "materials science" problem of the type that Tesla/SpaceX have solved in the past, I would not rule out Tesla getting their own battery working at some stage.

But overall I do see the QuantumScape claims as credible and something likely to be be commercialised.

 

[uujjj2]

The term "solid state battery" is misleading, it is better to call it a "Lithium Metal Anode" battery.

Yes! Nobody really cares if a battery is "solid state" or not, but a pure lithium electrode has big advantages.

 

[uujjj2]

And Tesla has a patent for a similar battery;- Tesla patents new technology for lithium metal/anode-free battery cells - Electrek

Not quite that similar. QuantumScape's main invention is a separator that prevents dendrites. But the QS separator requires the entire cell to be made totally different than a conventional lithium ion. Tesla/Dahn's work is for an electrolyte additive that resists dendrite formation. Such an electrolyte may not quite get you to a pure lithium electrode, but does let you run a higher current and have a much higher ratio of lithium to carbon/silicon in the anode. So Tesla's cell could get very close in performance and density to the QS cell, while being manufactured on a much more conventional process with cylindrical cells and all.

 

[JRP3]

Yes! Nobody really cares if a battery is "solid state" or not, but a pure lithium electrode has big advantages.

Well one strong selling point of a true solid sate cell is the elimination of the flammable liquid electrolyte.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not quite that similar. QuantumScape's main invention is a separator that prevents dendrites. But the QS separator requires the entire cell to be made totally different than a conventional lithium ion. Tesla/Dahn's work is for an electrolyte additive that resists dendrite formation. Such an electrolyte may not quite get you to a pure lithium electrode, but does let you run a higher current and have a much higher ratio of lithium to carbon/silicon in the anode. So Tesla's cell could get very close in performance and density to the QS cell, while being manufactured on a much more conventional process with cylindrical cells and all.

Yes, my guess is Tesla/Dahn need to do a lot more work, and perhaps develop their own separator.
However, both are trying to prevent Dendrites, maybe that can be done without a special separator?

 

[uujjj2]

QuantumScape seems further down the track than Tesla, but Tesla could always license QuantumScape technology, even given that VW will be first to market.

Let me tell you how this whole "technology licensing" thing actually works here in Silicon Valley. Practical, applicable technology exists in the minds of the engineers and scientists who develop it. Yeah, there's documentation, patents, code you can license, but that stuff is useless without the people. So this is how it actually works: Company A has some great technology that company B wants. If company B has lots of money, it just buys company A. Otherwise, company B hires the key engineers from company A, who replicate a similar technology. Then company A sues company B. Years later, the lawyers pay each other off by negotiating a "technology licensing" agreement to settle all the claims.

 

[JRP3]

Recent interview Sandy mentions how impressed he was with Jagdeep, 25 minute mark:

 

[JRP3]

Jordan takes apart some of the points in the Scorpion short seller report on QS

 

[Matias]

View attachment 616292 On 10/2020 analyst day QuantumScape presented three different Discounted Enterprise Value -scenarios with enterprise values 8, 12 and 16 billions.

Market cap today is 26,8 billion, 67% more than the high value scenario.

It is difficult for me to pay more than what the management has pitched just couple of months ago.

I wish i would have found it earlier.

Market cap now is

Market Cap

9.167B

So it might be reasonable?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Latest quarterly shareholder letter with a bunch of technical and timeline details. https://s26.q4cdn.com/263384136/fil...1/q2/QS-Shareholder-Letter-Q2-07272021-v3.pdf

Targeting commercialization in 2024/2025

 

[SMAlset]

Jagdeep gave a Yahoo Finance interview yesterday, 8/2, exclusive to their site.

Here’s link to it with video. 8:14 run time

QuantumScape CEO on outlook, ramping up EV battery development

QuantumScape Co-founder and CEO Jagdeep Singh joins Yahoo Finance Live to break down the future of EV battery production and what’s next for the battery manufacturer.

finance.yahoo.com

Interview transcript below video (scroll up past ad to see).

 

[heltok]

My take: I still don’t see it. Maybe they have something. Maybe that will go into scale. That’s nice for the world, I applaud their effort. But as an investor my question is: Will they make any meaningful profit?

Let’s take everything goes 100% according to plan scenario:

In 2030, they are making 500GWh of solid state batteries. They somehow manage to make them for $30/kWh, while Tesla have been stuck at $50/kWh since 2025 as Tesla ran out of R&D money and the Chinese decided that hydrogen was the way forward. So they sell these to VW who now is the largest EV maker in the world for $40/kWh undercutting Tesla. So $10/kWh * 500 000 000kWh = $5B of profit per year minus their $500M/y budget for R&D and SG&A. Even in a pie in the sky scenario the profit is not very large, we are talking Tesla 2021Q2 amount of profits. Is any of this likely? With LFP? With Tesla having a war chest to fund reserach to learn their secret sauce of how dendrites are formed in 9 years? With Tesla having actual factories up and running and being able to attract serious talent after their battery day. With whatever improvements Tesla presents at future battery days? With Chinese companies aggressively trying to capture the battery market? With Northvolt, Samsung, CATL, LG, Panasonic wanting a slice of those $5B/y?

It’s just so much that will happen even before they go into scale and even if they do, the profits will not even be large… Batteries is not where the profits are, it’s in the value added final product, in the software etc.

It just screams ”Tesla did something with EVs, now they are worth a lot. Not gonna miss that train again… So I’m gonna invest in anything that promises to do something cool in the EV space and make as much money as those pesky early investors in Tesla did and not feel bad about myself anymore”.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So $10/kWh * 500 000 000kWh = $5B of profit per year minus their $500M/y budget for R&D and SG&A. Even in a pie in the sky scenario the profit is not very large, we are talking Tesla 2021Q2 amount of profits.

So QS will be worth 700 billion in 2030? A 7500% return from here? Count me out!!!

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433892314699730953

 

[Doggydogworld]

You know the LFP train is gaining speed when both Musk and Quantumscape hop onboard!

Legacy carmakers are mostly missing the train. VW at least said they will use LFP for low end (along with manganese-rich NMC for mid-range and nickel-rich for high end). Ford vaguely mentioned LFP for commercial vehicles. Nothing from GM, even though their China JVs mostly use LFP. You'd think the Bolt fire fiasco would cause a rethink, but they seem to be in dinosaur mode. I haven't heard much else from Europe and nothing at all from the Japanese carmakers. Nissan started out with LMO for safety reasons. You think they'd be all over LFP, but they seem to have lost their way after framing Ghosn.

 

[JRP3]

Another excellent QS video from Jordan