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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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it's ONLY possible to guess!
My guess is it might last some days but after that the price will be effected by other events. Like pending report of first profit etc.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Looks like we might be done with the SCTY downward trend. I'm wondering if the $35 level is a new base and it's time to start buying again, or are you guys still in wait and see mode?
Gtoffo
Member
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen... Who's in and who's out?
I'm (moderately) Long at an average of 34$.... based on guts more than anything else so I wouldn't recommend it that much (!!).
I'm (moderately) Long at an average of 34$.... based on guts more than anything else so I wouldn't recommend it that much (!!).
In and looking to buy more. I'm not sure if this is the bottom, but I'll probably pick up a few today.
I sold my Put protection (made $100 ta boot). I may add 1 more lot of J14 Calls to my stock position to complete my long allotment (I'll roll those J14s to J15s as soon as they come up)
It's holding up really well on a down market- so just added those J14 calls- that makes me full long - I can always add more if needed but this is full allotment to SCTY for me
It's holding up really well on a down market- so just added those J14 calls- that makes me full long - I can always add more if needed but this is full allotment to SCTY for me
CyberDutchie
Active Member
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I got them for $9.60, but they are 30 strike. However, looks like I acted too soon--stock was up 5% when order went through but after that it gave up all the gains for the day.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I dipped my toe back in the water today. This is not an "all clear" I have no idea what is going to happen with this stock. I'm surprised we aren't in the 20s...so I wanted to put some money back to work incase I was wrong.
The 10-year story for solar is still incredibly good, so I want to make sure I have at least some exposure. I'm looking for other names in the space too if anyone has any suggestions.
The 10-year story for solar is still incredibly good, so I want to make sure I have at least some exposure. I'm looking for other names in the space too if anyone has any suggestions.
Didn't change because the price depressed on the way to lock up exp. People probably going to wait and stagger out. I'm not touching this yet.
Gtoffo
Member
"SolarCity was upgraded at Credit Suisse to outperform from neutral. There is increased confidence California will continue to support solar generation, Credit Suisse said. Price target is now $52."
+8% in pre market. Go SCTY!
+8% in pre market. Go SCTY!
Citizen-T,
Here is what I wrote in another thread:
"In short I believe that SPWR is the safer investment (less volatile) and will probably perform better the scty, so it is a win-win. Although I do admit that scty is a wildcard and has potential to do better, but I have no idea how to value that company and there are too many unknowns. There is no way that scty should have a higher market cap than spwr as of today.
Sunpower has:
- Best, most efficient, longest lasting, lowest degradation, best warranty, highest quality, lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) panels on the planet. They have the best technology and are introducing products such as C7 tracker that will generate 6-7x the amount of electricity from each panel, and will require 6x less land to purchase to build a power plant.
- Diversified across the entire world, and across product lines.
- Just turned profitable and growing bottom line quickly. Margins improving each quarter as well
- Stock is still undervalued at 1x Sales and 25x forward PE. Very low multiple for a growth company in the fastest growing industry in the world. I kind of know how to value this company as apposed to scty; although it is hard to figure out revenue recognition, etc.
- Financial backing by Total S.A.
- Great exposure to fastest growing markets in US and Japan.
I would encourage you to read the May 15 Analyst Day presentation by Sunpower; make sure to download the slides. It is a good company and is expecting a big second half of the year financially (according to CEO). They are also sandbaggers and give out low guidance, so expect them to beat in the upcoming quarters.
I could be wrong on Sunpower, but I think that the risk is moderate at best with a huge potential for returns. In the perfect scenario, I can see this stock going up fourfold by the end of next year, and I don't see it going down more than 30% at worse. Good risk/reward ratio. SCTY might go up even more, but I have no idea what to expect from that stock."
Basically it comes down to this: Spwr has significantly better panels than scty (uses YGE and TSL, i.e. chinese panels), they will last longer, with better degradation, and will produce more energy. I would definitely go with spwr panels on my own roof (and may be installing them soon). SPWR's lease option is also the better option from a financial standpoint too, but customers don't know this and I have doubts if they ever figure this out. Scty uses like 3% lease increases per year, while spwr uses 1%. So people may choose scty over spwr because it may seem cheaper at first, but when you factor in lease increases, degradation, etc. you would have been a lot better off buying spwr panels.
Another plus for scty is that they have the backing of Goldman Sachs and leases are very expensive, so you need a ton of capital. scty was able to install about 60k residential leases already, while spwr only installed 20k. Last quarter spwr said they installed roughly 2k, and that is only because they ran out of financing. They need to get their financing in order and I hope that Total S.A. (who owns 66% of spwr) will help them, but I have my doubts since they haven't done it so far. Therefore if scty continues getting $billions from Goldman, it will scale a lot quicker and grow faster than spwr. If both companies had unlimited finances, I would place my bets on spwr because they are superior panels for about the same price. SPWR says that the average lease is for 8.6 KW and that is limited by roof space. Scty using cheap chinese panels would only get 6 or 7 KW's out of that same roof.
Remember that spwr can also build a 500 MW power plant, that would require scty to install 100,000 residential systems just to make as much revenue.
I feel like spwr is the safer play, but scty might be the high potential/bubble play. Ride the bubble with scty, but don't get too greedy.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm trying to understand why office park landlords don't seem to be moving quickly to solar. The typical one or two story buildings that are everywhere in CA, AZ, NC, etc...
They typically can capitalize expense/ investment over the 20-30 year time frame if they are in long haul, and if they are debt financed over 5-7 years (more typical) they should be able to "rent" the roof space to SCTY and SPWR for part of the generation income stream. I'm assuming that with flat roofs and high load/ quality electrical systems that are typical to these buildings that the install time should be less than residential, especially since we are talking about much, much larger areas.
They typically can capitalize expense/ investment over the 20-30 year time frame if they are in long haul, and if they are debt financed over 5-7 years (more typical) they should be able to "rent" the roof space to SCTY and SPWR for part of the generation income stream. I'm assuming that with flat roofs and high load/ quality electrical systems that are typical to these buildings that the install time should be less than residential, especially since we are talking about much, much larger areas.
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